Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 393 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #7,841
  • Jul 19, 2016 8:43am Jul 19, 2016 8:43am
Hello everyone

May I ask something please. I have attached the USDHUF 4 hour chart and I would like to know if the trendline that I have drawn is valide\ or not.

I dont think there was any supply zone created and removed since the last long candle marked with *

I'm following a rule that say an upwards zig zag has to be created and at least one supply zone be removed for the ascending trendline to hold.

Are we in an uptrend in this case.

Kind Regards

Abzozo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDHUF H4.png Size: 119 KB
  • #7,842
  • Jul 19, 2016 10:55am Jul 19, 2016 10:55am
Quoting Abzozo1
Hello everyone May I ask something please. I have attached the USDHUF 4 hour chart and I would like to know if the trendline that I have drawn is valide\ or not. I dont think there was any supply zone created and removed since the last long candle marked with * I'm following a rule that say an upwards zig zag has to be created and at least one supply zone be removed for the ascending trendline to hold. Are we in an uptrend in this case. Kind Regards Abzozo {image}
Hi Abzozo,

I'm also very new to the S+D analysis, here is my humble view: Your uptrend line is valid because we can connect two valleys (price made HH). Possible supply area as shown (although "wicky" and not fresh anymore):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdhuf H4.jpg Size: 165 KB


HTH
  • #7,843
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:39pm Jul 19, 2016 11:39pm
Quoting Abzozo1
Hello everyone May I ask something please. I have attached the USDHUF 4 hour chart and I would like to know if the trendline that I have drawn is valide\ or not. I dont think there was any supply zone created and removed since the last long candle marked with * I'm following a rule that say an upwards zig zag has to be created and at least one supply zone be removed for the ascending trendline to hold. Are we in an uptrend in this case. Kind Regards Abzozo {image}
Abzozo, H4 trendline you drew is correct my friend. You must ask yourself if it removed a supply zone or not to consider an uptrend.

Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,844
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:41pm Jul 19, 2016 11:41pm
Facebook stock s trying to break out above all time highs, the same that SP500 index did a few days ago. Long bias on this one, new Daily demand being created around 117.88ish for longs. Long bias on this stock.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: facebook.jpg Size: 494 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,845
  • Jul 20, 2016 2:14am Jul 20, 2016 2:14am
Ok thanks Maestro & you HTH
  • #7,846
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:12am Jul 20, 2016 7:12am
Quoting panoramia
Weekly supply in control on #audusd New supply zones being formed on H4 and potentially on Daily chart. Short bias since price is now too high in the weekly curve and weekly supply is in control. What are your views on audusd? Anybody uploading a more detailed top down analysis of potential entries? Cheers, Alfonso www.set-and-forget.com {image}
Isn't the trend up in weekly & daily charts for this pair? Or is it okay to respect montly SZ and ignore TL on smaller timeframes?
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,847
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:22am Jul 20, 2016 7:22am
Currency USD/JPY
Looking to short this pair.

Is it okay to short tho? Since Monthly is down , Weekly is down (SZ respected) , Daily TL broken :/ .
Will breaking a single rule like a shorter TL being broken possible?
Curve is Low on Monthly too.

Let me know your thoughts on this! Thanks

Monthly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly.png Size: 62 KB


Weekly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly.png Size: 57 KB


Daily:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily.png Size: 50 KB
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,848
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:42am Jul 20, 2016 7:42am
Quoting isaacpeh
Currency USD/JPY Looking to short this pair. Is it okay to short tho? Since Monthly is down , Weekly is down (SZ respected) , Daily TL broken :/ . Will breaking a single rule like a shorter TL being broken possible? Curve is Low on Monthly too. Let me know your thoughts on this! Thanks Monthly: {image} Weekly: {image} Daily: {image}
Weekly supply imbalance is tested, a new supply needs to be formed for shorts.
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,849
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:43am Jul 20, 2016 7:43am
Quoting isaacpeh
{quote} Isn't the trend up in weekly & daily charts for this pair? Or is it okay to respect montly SZ and ignore TL on smaller timeframes?
What you have to respect strictly depends on the timeframes you are using for your trading, I don't know which are the ones you are using. You have to know when to respect monthly zones, weekly or daily imbalances. You must clearly specify that on your trading plan otherwise you will always be asking yourself the same question over and over and over.

Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,850
  • Jul 20, 2016 7:55am Jul 20, 2016 7:55am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} What you have to respect strictly depends on the timeframes you are using for your trading, I don't know which are the ones you are using. You have to know when to respect monthly zones, weekly or daily imbalances. You must clearly specify that on your trading plan otherwise you will always be asking yourself the same question over and over and over. Cheers, Alfonso www.set-and-forget.com
Well , usually i'll wait for Monthly Weekly and Daily to be in a Down or Up trend before i go long or short! If so , I'll wait for demand or supply areas to be created on the daily or H4 before i place any trades. So i respect all 3 timeframes somehow. Is this alittle bit too extreme ?
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,851
  • Jul 20, 2016 8:00am Jul 20, 2016 8:00am
Quoting isaacpeh
{quote} Well , usually i'll wait for Monthly Weekly and Daily to be in a Down or Up trend before i go long or short! If so , I'll wait for demand or supply areas to be created on the daily or H4 before i place any trades. So i respect all 3 timeframes somehow. Is this alittle bit too extreme ?
It's not extreme... but there is a big difference between looking at that three timeframe's combination to trade with the trend and to trade against it. Are you trading with or against the trend usually?

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,852
  • Jul 20, 2016 8:07am Jul 20, 2016 8:07am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It's not extreme... but there is a big difference between looking at that three timeframe's combination to trade with the trend and to trade against it. Are you trading with or against the trend usually? Cheers, Alfonso
I usually trade with the trend, Therefore if on any charts (MN/WK/DAILY) the TL is broken. I would not trade that pair.. This way honestly i would get very little trades. Thats why i was wondering if it's possible to trade even if the weekly and monthly is respected but daily broken.
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,853
  • Jul 21, 2016 9:47am Jul 21, 2016 9:47am
EUR/JPY
Anyone else waiting to short this pair?
Monthly Down / Weekly Down / Daily Down
Supply drawn in H4 chart. Pending trade to show exmaple of where i might short this!
Curve is above 50% on Monthly!!!


Any objections against this?

Monthly :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly.png Size: 59 KB


Weekly :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.png Size: 54 KB


Daily :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 47 KB
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,854
  • Edited 10:59am Jul 21, 2016 10:36am | Edited 10:59am
Very similar situation on USDJPY.

Short on this pair:

  1. MN down (54% on curve)
  2. WK down (92% in curve) - touched DTL, supply in control
  3. Daily down (95 in daily curve) - touched DTL, supply in control within a Weekly supply area
  4. All three time frames in alignment...
  5. Looks like a high probability setup
  6. Waiting to short at new supply area on H4 to enter short (107.480 to 107.070).


Any reason(s) why not?

MN:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-21 usdjpy MN.jpg Size: 112 KB

W:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-21 usdjpy WK.jpg Size: 147 KB

D:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-21 usdjpy D1.jpg Size: 148 KB
  • #7,855
  • Jul 21, 2016 11:16pm Jul 21, 2016 11:16pm
Quoting visasem
Very similar situation on USDJPY. Short on this pair: MN down (54% on curve) WK down (92% in curve) - touched DTL, supply in control Daily down (95 in daily curve) - touched DTL, supply in control within a Weekly supply area All three time frames in alignment... Looks like a high probability setup Waiting to short at new supply area on H4 to enter short (107.480 to 107.070). Any reason(s) why not? MN: {image} W: {image} D: {image}
I posted the exact same chart just awhile back! Seems like the daily is on a broken dowtrend to me :/ not too sure if i drew it correctly , you can go back one page to see!
But i'd be taking that trade too. Waiting for a new supply zone to be formed.
The only person you are destined to become is the person you decide to be.
  • #7,856
  • Jul 22, 2016 1:16am Jul 22, 2016 1:16am
Quoting isaacpeh
{quote} I posted the exact same chart just awhile back! Seems like the daily is on a broken dowtrend to me :/ not too sure if i drew it correctly , you can go back one page to see! But i'd be taking that trade too. Waiting for a new supply zone to be formed.
Weekly supply imbalance still in control, no longs. New levels of supply needed for shorts on USDJPY.

Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,857
  • Jul 22, 2016 1:17am Jul 22, 2016 1:17am
Quoting visasem
Very similar situation on USDJPY. Short on this pair: MN down (54% on curve) WK down (92% in curve) - touched DTL, supply in control Daily down (95 in daily curve) - touched DTL, supply in control within a Weekly supply area All three time frames in alignment... Looks like a high probability setup Waiting to short at new supply area on H4 to enter short (107.480 to 107.070). Any reason(s) why not? MN: {image} W: {image} D: {image}
Short bias on USD/JPY. Weekly supply imbalance still in control, no longs. New levels of supply needed for shorts on USDJPY.
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,858
  • Jul 22, 2016 7:10am Jul 22, 2016 7:10am
I also see a short at 107.06 H4 usdjpy
Screenshot1.png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 242 KB
Keep calm and trade on
  • #7,859
  • Jul 24, 2016 9:33am Jul 24, 2016 9:33am
Quoting Poole
I also see a short at 107.06 H4 usdjpy Screenshot1.png {image}
Thanks Poole.

Any other ideas for the coming week? I cannot seem to find anything else that looks promising IMHO....
  • #7,860
  • Jul 24, 2016 7:34pm Jul 24, 2016 7:34pm
Quoting Poole
I also see a short at 107.06 H4 usdjpy Screenshot1.png {image}
Can not short sell on H4 at current situation as daily time frame is not in our favor.
Once daily demand at 104.7 is broken we can consider short sell on H4.
( No longs on daily as weekly non fresh supply is in control)
We are in wait & watch situation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 129 KB
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