Spider's Den

The GBP/JPY aka "the Dragon" has a strong correlation with equities. Last night Japan, HK and Australian markets went up due to commodities prices up, abenomics in Japan, and follow through risk-on due to US Equities performing strongly overnight. Nikkei was probably the best performer as it has been up 1200pts in 3 days.
The dragon is making an advance towards 138.00-20 zone where it should face resistance. POC consists of H5 weekly PP, 61.8, Historical sellers (blue quadrant) , EMA89 and it should possibly bring some fresh selling on the pair towards 134.60. 139.20 is the last line of defense before we possibly see another advancement towards 144.05. Traders should know that if the pair breaks 144.05 it should set up a new mid term goal possibly towards 160.10 retest.

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Dear Nenad, Dear Chris,
I am following your analysis and weekly recaps with enthusiasm also the wave analysis every morning. EurUsd has nearly hit your targets but now it seems to be forming an inverted head and shoulders Just before the Crude Oil Inventory report. What do you think?
Best wishes
Isin

EUR/USD, GBP/USD quickly swap bearish and bullish momentum - Your capital is at risk
EUR/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016eu4.png
The EUR/USD made a bearish bounce and turn at the resistance trend line (orange). Price action has fallen towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave X (blue) and seems to be using it as support for a continuation of wave 2 (brown). The wave 2 (brown) becomes invalidated if price manages to break above the top at 1.1425 whereas wave 3 (green) could start if price manages to break below support (green line).
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016eu1.png
The EUR/USD indeed completed the ABC (green) zigzag within wave X (blue) as mention on Friday. Now price could make a bullish ABC (green) within wave Y (blue) unless price manages to break below the 100% Fibonacci level of 'X vs W'.
GBP/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016gu4.png
The GBP/USD is building a contacting triangle chart pattern which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) lines. A break above resistance invalidates wave 2 (pink) whereas a break below support makes a wave 3 (pink) continuation likely.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016gu1.png
The GBP/USD seems to be building a bearish impulse. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (blue) invalidates the current wave count. A break below the support trend line (green) would see the completion of wave 5 (blue) of most likely wave 1 (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016uj4.png
The USD/JPY broke the resistance trend line (red) and is moving quickly to the next Fibonacci levels. A break above the 161.8% target would indicate a bullish reversal and a change of the wave count from WXY (pink) to a 123.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016uj1.png
The USD/JPY completed the 5 wave (purple) within wave 5 (orange) on Friday as expected. Price is now building a correction within wave B (grey) most likely. A break of the support trend line (green) could price expand wave B (grey).
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Sorry for missing your question Isin, I was unable to check the FF page regularly last week. Glad to hear that you are following our analysis.
Great analysis from you on the H&S chart pattern Hope you managed to catch part of the upside on the EUR/USD.

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD diverge on upcoming breakout direction - Your capital is at risk

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GBP/JPY could see some selling soon

Here we go GBPJPY as presumed

Hi T,

the selling seems to have come to an end at 138.2x level.

I now expect decent buying until 140.92 or even higher.

Have fun!

Why do you think the selling ended at 138.2x level?

There was a failed attempt at forming a resistance on daily tf. The sequence thus demands that a 4hr support holds so that the up move on daily can continue.

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Bearish breakout could retrace before downtrend continues - Your capital is at risk

http://www.admiralmarkets.com/analyt...rend-continues

Yeah we had nice selling indeed. 138.30 was support. Might go more up on good GBP news but might be sold again later close to POC

The EUR/USD is bearish below 1.1000

I recommend selling EU at current market price 1.1020

Take profit at 1.0930

Happy trading guys!

EUR/USD, GBP/USD build bullish ABC rally within wave-2 - your capital is at risk
EUR/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016eu4.png
The EUR/USD seems to have completed 5 bearish waves (purple), which have been marked as a wave 1 (purple). A wave 2 (purple) is expected and price can retest the Fibonacci levels of '2 vs 1'. A break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave count. Typically waves 2 retrace deep towards the 61.8% or 78.6% Fib.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016eu1.png
The EUR/USD indeed was close to completing wave 5 of 5 (green/blue) as mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis. A bullish ABC zigzag (blue) seems to be unfolding within wave 2 (purple). A break of the wave 1 (purple) bottom could indicate a lack of a wave 2 retracement whereas a break of the resistance trend line (red) could spark the wave 2 (purple) correction.
GBP/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016gu4.png
The GBP/USD broke one support trend line (dotted green) but is showing a new bullish bounce again which creates a new support trend line (green). Price is either in a bearish 123 (pink) or in a bigger ABC retracement (purple).
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016gu1.png
The GBP/USD indeed started the wave 2 (green) retracement, which was mentioned in yesterday's wave analysis and live webinar. http://www.admiralmarkets.com/education/webinars/ The bullish rebound saw GBP/USD develop via an ABC zigzag (blue) and channel (green lines). The wave 2 (green) is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fib level of '2 vs 1'. Here too waves 2 tend to test deeper Fib levels like 61.8% and 78.6%.
USD/JPY
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016uj4.png
The USD/JPY broke the top of wave A (grey) which makes it most likely that price has completed the correction and is building a new bullish impulse. A break above the 161.8% Fibonacci level could change the wave structure to bullish and see price head to higher Fib targets.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...07-2016uj1.png
The USD/JPY broke resistance (dotted red) and a new bullish impulse seems best explained by a wave 3 (purple). Any wave 4 retracement once the wave 3 is completed should typically stop at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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