Non-Predictive Trading | Forex Factory

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Non-Predictive Trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 18, 2016 5:31pm Jul 18, 2016 5:31pm
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market?

No Support Resistance
No Supply Demand
No Looking at past chart price action
No Predicting Where price will go

Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
  • #2
  • Jul 18, 2016 6:10pm Jul 18, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
  • #3
  • Jul 18, 2016 9:04pm Jul 18, 2016 9:04pm
Hi venividivici,

I'm very much interested in that paradigm... it defies stereotypical thinking. Maybe LITEchild has something new to share .


Regards
  • #4
  • Jul 18, 2016 9:07pm Jul 18, 2016 9:07pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote}
Hey veni,

few issues with above:

1) no predefined entry exits if no support/resistance
2) not insulated from sudden reverse market moves.

Its about the market reaction to the key levels which matter imho
  • #5
  • Jul 18, 2016 10:04pm Jul 18, 2016 10:04pm
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
That is how I trade. Current data. Good Luck with your thread
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #6
  • Jul 18, 2016 11:23pm Jul 18, 2016 11:23pm
this thread for sure is going to attract all the weirdos and the gurus of the factory
  • #7
  • Jul 19, 2016 1:07am Jul 19, 2016 1:07am
So let me get this straight.

You dont want to predict market action at all. Absolutely NO support or resistance of any kind (which involves looking at previous price action by definition). And I am assuming no indicators as well.

But.... you DO want to 'follow' price, which would mean some kind of predicting of where it might go. So, that wont work either.

You are now left with ONLY one option -

Trade with your eyes closed. [make sure you have the order box open]

Good luck with that.
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #8
  • Jul 19, 2016 1:38am Jul 19, 2016 1:38am
the question was" Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market?
The answer is yes we can have the thread !
  • #9
  • Jul 19, 2016 2:10am Jul 19, 2016 2:10am
Quoting tetis
the question was" Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? The answer is yes we can have the thread !
  • #10
  • Jul 19, 2016 2:35am Jul 19, 2016 2:35am
I'm intrigued. What would you like us to post here vinividivici?
  • #11
  • Jul 19, 2016 3:05am Jul 19, 2016 3:05am
Following the market is a prediction. Because you always depend on what will happen after you place your trade. So if you don't want to predict that, better put your money under the bed. Many people don't want to bear the consequence of there prediction and take responsibility. So they want to corner the issue by trying to just FOLLOW what is hapenning. That is ilussion, putting your head in the sand.
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  • #12
  • Jul 19, 2016 3:44am Jul 19, 2016 3:44am
non predictive trading?... hmm...what and interesting thread....and what about crystal ball?)) does it help?)
  • #13
  • Jul 19, 2016 4:04am Jul 19, 2016 4:04am
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
It would not be trading. It would be gambling.

Maybe it could work out this way: As you are not trying to predict anything and not using any useful data from the charts, it does not make any sense to look at the charts at all. You could then just put on random trades and keep your TP at least twice your SL. And hope for the best.
  • #14
  • Jul 19, 2016 4:35am Jul 19, 2016 4:35am
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
This is way easier as 96.587 % of all FF members think. But you have to be careful with such ideas here.

Many of us FF`s are totaly spoiled in thinking (in a very small box) and very soon this thread will be a cruel stabbing and shoting of who knows best or better at least. So watch out.

Ok, back to easy.

There is a very old trader with more than 30 years of experiance and he said " I tried everything, every indicator, but all you need is the
T-line" .... T-line means trigger-line and is a ema 8, close. Thats all. No S+R, no supply and demand, no nothing.

Price moves "into" the T-line, get in. As long as price doesn`t close outside the T-line, stay in. And if it closes outside, get out and when price goes back into the "trend", get in again. He makes a lot of money with that and he is sure not a gambler, he just gave up listen to all the "gurus"

There are many ways to do so, a ema, half trend indi, a colorchange indi of any kind, a subwindow indi where price moves above/below 0....
  • #15
  • Jul 19, 2016 5:03am Jul 19, 2016 5:03am
Quoting wolf300
{quote} There are many ways to do so, a ema, half trend indi, a colorchange indi of any kind, a subwindow indi where price moves above/below 0....
Your last line is what the OP should understand. In other words, there are many ways to skin a cat, but you have to choose which particular way you want to skin it.

He said he wants no predictive method, but he does want to follow price, which is a contradiction. You cant have your cake and eat it too. He basically does not want to take responsibility of being wrong but he still wants something that he can follow. Wishful (and unrealistic) thinking.

There are extremely few traders who can trade using just pure charts, with nothing on it. No S/R or lines of any kind. But even they have to make a choice/prediction of which direction they want to trade.

P.S. @ the OP - You could try the dart throwing method which was actually carried out by Wall Street Journal as a fun experiment. [Warning: You still have to predict if you want to Buy or Sell]
http://www.automaticfinances.com/monkey-stock-picking/
In other news: A ranger was trapped between a bull and a bear
  • #16
  • Jul 19, 2016 5:39am Jul 19, 2016 5:39am
The key elements to a good trading strategy are:

1) Buy when the price is going up and sell when the price is going down.
2) Cut the losses early. (Especially: never add to a losing trade!)
3) Let the winners run.

The dumb money (on average) does not respect any of these rules.

k
  • #17
  • Edited 6:50pm Jul 19, 2016 6:19am | Edited 6:50pm
I understand your sentiments, venividivici. I've been trading like this for a few weeks now. I believe the term you're looking for is "trend following trading". I don't use support and resistance, supply and demand, nor technical indicators except for one moving average and it has made my trading so much easier.

As trend following traders, we don't PREDICT where price is going, we simply REACT to what price is doing now based on our trend following process (system/strategy).

All I use on my charts is a simple moving average and price, that's it. The moving average itself isn't special or magical.... it's simply apart of my process to determine whether to be bullish or bearish depending on price action.

Quoting limzy
{quote} Hey veni, few issues with above: 1) no predefined entry exits if no support/resistance 2) not insulated from sudden reverse market moves. Its about the market reaction to the key levels which matter imho
That's not true. I have predefined entries and stop losses. I use trailing stops instead of predefined exits, because I'm a trend following trader. ....And support and resistance is NOT apart of my process so I DON'T NEED it.
  • #18
  • Jul 19, 2016 11:26am Jul 19, 2016 11:26am
Maybe, but we should only trade strong movements like those happening on NFP, FOMC, BOE etc. and follow price, but the thing that stops me from doing it the most is the slippage and the spread. Of-course we can't predict how much the market will move in our direction, but this is the magic here
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #19
  • Jul 19, 2016 12:17pm Jul 19, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting venividivici
Can we have a thread with traders that don't predict the market? No Support Resistance No Supply Demand No Looking at past chart price action No Predicting Where price will go Just following price getting in and out as it acts.
Quoting numbrcrunchr
...we don't PREDICT where price is going, we simply REACT to what price is doing now
You stalk and react to price as it unfolds. What you dont know (and cant see) is if support/resistance will hold/break. Because it does not exist until it does.

Draw a big fat red line in the middle of a pathway and watch how people react to it hehehe. Such an insignificant 'thing' yet it makes people react.

Meh just ignore me. Mind dribble.
  • #20
  • Jul 19, 2016 1:04pm Jul 19, 2016 1:04pm
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} {quote} You stalk and react to price as it unfolds. What you dont know (and cant see) is if support/resistance will hold/break. Because it does not exist until it does. Draw a big fat red line in the middle of a pathway and watch how people react to it hehehe. Such an insignificant 'thing' yet it makes people react. Meh just ignore me. Mind dribble.
What will be your edge in the market ? How will you enter long and short positions, or on what basis ? What will make you exit in profit or in loss ? Would you use some sort of money management if so what type ?

Best regards
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