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Trading Logic and Market Constants

  • #41
  • Edited 4:40pm Jul 10, 2016 2:58pm | Edited 4:40pm
Sorry but this whole forum like any other trading forum is about teaching ppl how to lose. Ppl start trading without any knowledge about trading
and after losing they come here to trust anyone who knows how to speak in public forums. Today.. auction market, tomorrow... God knows your next invention
  • #42
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:50pm Jul 10, 2016 3:50pm
Quoting HeyYou
Sorry but this whole forum like any other trading forum is about teaching ppl how to lose. Ppl start trading without any knowledge about trading and after losing they come here to trust anyone who knows how to speak in public forums. Today.. auction market, tomorrow... Buy it now... God knows your next invention

You nailed it.
And remember , you have to sound like a mystic keeper of secret, sacred knowledge and never ever attach trade explorer.

....
  • #43
  • Jul 10, 2016 4:42pm Jul 10, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting ronaleo10
{quote} You nailed it. And remember , you have to sound like a mystic keeper of secret, sacred knowledge and never ever attach trade explorer. ....
Lol, that's exactly what a real "guru" is all about.
  • #44
  • Jul 10, 2016 4:44pm Jul 10, 2016 4:44pm
Quoting HeyYou
Sorry but this whole forum like any other trading forum is about teaching ppl how to lose. Ppl start trading without any knowledge about trading and after losing they come here to trust anyone who knows how to speak in public forums. Today.. auction market, tomorrow... God knows your next invention

I've been pretty lenient with the type of discussion that is happening here. However I kindly ask two things from all thread posters to allow there to be meaningful discussion,
- Everyone understand that statements made by others are based off of their personal perspective, so don't start any arguments here.
- If you are not here to discuss "Market Constants" as defined in the first post please discuss your opinions on off topic things elsewhere (that means you HeyYou)
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #45
  • Jul 10, 2016 5:39pm Jul 10, 2016 5:39pm
Quoting Rparm
{quote} I've been pretty lenient with the type of discussion that is happening here. However I kindly ask two things from all thread posters to allow there to be meaningful discussion, - Everyone understand that statements made by others are based off of their personal perspective, so don't start any arguments here. - If you are not here to discuss "Market Constants" as defined in the first post please discuss your opinions on off topic things elsewhere (that means you HeyYou)

Sorry but as always I see so much hypothetical understanding and so little proof... makes me guess it's all bs.
  • #46
  • Jul 11, 2016 3:01am Jul 11, 2016 3:01am
I keep telling people that if they something negative to say about me, then they should post it in the link below:
I openly welcome for all the frustrated people to vent out all of their negativity into one thread and not disrupt other people's thread.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6645523

You guys will enjoy the link I provided (there's even a poll ) because you will find all the like minded people who share your views about me.

Please stop disrupting threads and go to the link provided and have a blast there and not in other people's thread.


Peace,
CrucialPoint
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6645523
  • #47
  • Jul 12, 2016 2:48am Jul 12, 2016 2:48am
Quoting CrucialPoint
I keep telling people that if they something negative to say about me, then they should post it in the link below: I openly welcome for all the frustrated people to vent out all of their negativity into one thread and not disrupt other people's thread. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6645523 You guys will enjoy the link I provided (there's even a poll ) because you will find all the like minded people who share your views about me. Please stop disrupting threads and go to the link provided and have a blast there and not...
Thank You for Your Selfless giving
Song from your collection

Inserted Video




The Jade master

One cold winter morning a young man walks five miles through the
snow. He knocks on the Jade masters door.
The Jade master answers with a broom in his hand.
Yes?
I want to learn about Jade.
Very well then, come in out of the cold.
They sit by the fire sipping hot green tea. The Jade master presses a green stone deeply into the young
mans hand and begins to talk about tree frogs. After a few minutes, the young man interrupts.
Excuse me, I am here to learn about Jade, not tree frogs.
The Jade master takes the stone and tells the young man to go home and return in a week. The following
week the young man returns. The Jade master presses another green stone into the young mans hand and
continues the story. Again, the young man interrupts. Again, the Jade-master sends him home. Weeks pass.
The young man interrupts less and less. The young man also learns to brew the hot green tea, clean up the
kitchen and sweep the floors. Spring comes.
One day, the young man observes, The stone I hold is not genuine Jade.
I lean back in my chair, savoring the story. My student interrupts.
OK. OK. Thats a great story. I dont see what it has to do with making money. I come to you to find out
about the markets. I want to learn about the bulls and the bears, commodities, stocks, bonds, calls and
options. I want to make big money. You tell me a fable about Jade. What is this? You
Thats all for now. Leave those price charts on the table. Come back next week.
Months pass. My student interrupts less and less as I continue the story of The Traders Window.
-From The Traders Window,
ED SEYKOTA
  • #48
  • Jul 12, 2016 4:32am Jul 12, 2016 4:32am
There are two statements that are in contrast:
- "Due to the Markets not have a Standard Distribution there is absolutely no way the Markets can be called "Random" (contrary to popular belief, mind you popular belief time and time again leads to failure in the Trading World"
- "Past price does not influence current Market Moves regardless of what happened in the past: Example, If countless massive Sell Orders suddenly execute... does it matter if the price they executed at had one hundred previous Support Bounces?? The simple answer: No"

How can you assume that market doesn't have a standard distribution if you say that past price doesn't influence current market moves. A standard distribution is calculated using past price. You could find that market doesn't have a standard distribution using a sample of 1,000 values, but what if you change your sample to 1,000,000 values and then suddenly it appears that markets are standard distributed?
I am not saying that your statements, taken singularly are wrong or right, I am saying that them together don't fit (my perspective).

I agree with both your statements but I would take a different road to put them together.
Nature builds itself efficiently.
Plants leafs grow in fibonacci sequence.
Flowers grow in fibonacci spirals.
The way people move in the crowd is efficient.
Bee yard is efficient.
We are living in a matrix built to be efficient, balanced.
You are part of this matrix and you can't escape or manipulate its rules.

Markets are a product of nature.
People operate through markets and people are a product of nature.
Trends are the expression of market's efficiency.
Life is a continuous switch from positive to negative.
Balance is not a static point, it is the result of opposing forces and sometimes one of these forces are greater -> trend.

Over the years I found that discoveries are not the result of some magic calculation (this is the wrong way of looking at life).
Market's are not random due to the fact that a statistical analysis says they are not standard distributed. It is like saying that price moves because of indicators.

If there are 100 people and 99 say that ForexFactory background is "blue" I am the one that would debate it because I have more probabilities to see the truth. I can be right, I can be wrong, but don't judge me if I see ForexFactory background "dark blue".

Alex
  • #49
  • Jul 12, 2016 10:03am Jul 12, 2016 10:03am
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
The Jade master
Hmm, another of Mr Seykota's sayings come to mind whenever I browse FF:

"The biggest secret about success is that there isn't any big secret about it, or if there is, then it's a secret from me, too. The idea of searching for some secret for trading success misses the point. It's like golf. Some golfers play to spend time outdoors. They hang out with their cronies, become one with nature, study the greens, reconnect with their muscles, drop into focused concentration and, incidentally, pick up a birdie or two. For others, it's an exercise in finding some new Holy Grail putter."
  • #50
  • Jul 13, 2016 5:24am Jul 13, 2016 5:24am
Quoting HeyYou
Sorry but this whole forum like any other trading forum is about teaching ppl how to lose. Ppl start trading without any knowledge about trading and after losing they come here to trust anyone who knows how to speak in public forums. Today.. auction market, tomorrow... God knows your next invention
but you also are here, in this forum, and you visited this thread and read it) there is nothing bad when people share there experience, even if this experience isn't good. even if one or another strategy or advice will not bring success to anyone, he will know how NOT to act. This is the other step, that can be usefull
  • #51
  • Edited 11:29am Jul 13, 2016 6:28am | Edited 11:29am
@CrucialPoint: Do you have a measure to know how many buyers are there if a big boy releases a big sell position (momentum brakes through threshold level)?
@Rparm: A very good summary. Thanks!
  • #52
  • Jul 13, 2016 7:38pm Jul 13, 2016 7:38pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Mzvega explained it well it very well this post. Now, knowing how this auction of buyers and sellers, order transaction and execution, etc... isn't going to make you successful. It's like knowing every detailed rules on how to play basketball isn't going to make you a great basketball player or a great basketball coach. A lot of people are deluded into thinking that you just need to know certain variables: for example volume of when people trades, or when most...

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  • #53
  • Jul 13, 2016 8:15pm Jul 13, 2016 8:15pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Unconventional Wisdom :nerd: There were 99 Professional smart traders and 1 CrucialPoint. After careful analysis of price history and technical details (fundamental et al..), They decided (all 99 of them) to buy into the market. God forbid, CrucialPoint was this nutcase who constantly has his episode of mental diarrhia (whom to some, CrucialPoint is full of shit, with very little substance and very little practical and applicable advice) and decided to proclaim to the whole world that he is going to sell against the Pro's and will make money......
well said...!!!
  • #54
  • Jul 15, 2016 10:08am Jul 15, 2016 10:08am
Interesting discussion, this one.

I would say that there are only two constants:
the first constant is the tendency of price to equilibrium;
the second constant is that money flow is never constant.

Time, for sure, is not the market mover but this does not mean it doesn't exist: it does but is a secondary aspect of something else. The consequence is that time scaled charts do not show the true picture
  • #55
  • Jul 15, 2016 10:47pm Jul 15, 2016 10:47pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Unconventional Wisdom :nerd: There were 99 Professional smart traders and 1 CrucialPoint. After careful analysis of price history and technical details (fundamental et al..), They decided (all 99 of them) to buy into the market. God forbid, CrucialPoint was this nutcase who constantly has his episode of mental diarrhia (whom to some, CrucialPoint is full of shit, with very little substance and very little practical and...
This logic is badly flawed. Can you see it?
  • #56
  • Jul 15, 2016 10:58pm Jul 15, 2016 10:58pm
I know that time does not affect price but all we get in the retail world is candles. So we just gotta learn to use them. Sure we also get tick charts but I have no idea how to use them effectively. Perhaps you can give us some tips on that. Here is my view on timeframes and price as an analogy.

The weekly - daily TFs are seen as a mountain. When you get to the 4hr - 1hr chart, you see that the mountain is composed of rocks. Zoom in to the 5min - 1min chart and you see the patterns rocks have under microscope. Get down to the tick chart and you enter the quantum world of atoms. Newtonian physics laws break down and don't work anymore. Just like the most fundamental unit in the universe is the atom, the most fundamental movement of price is the tick. There is no time in the quantum world and there is no time in the ticks of price.

So we cannot use classical physics (trading methods based on candlesticks) in the quantum world of atoms (trading methods based on tick charts). Looks like CP uses tick charts to derive his indicator as he has shown on his charts. If tick data is the only data he uses and nothing else, then everything we ever need is to learn how to make sense of that tick data. Since he uses it in the "now" moment it is like a speedometer in a car. There is a formula that measures your speed right now this very moment you are driving. So he must use his equation to plug in current tick data to continuously calculate influx just like a speedometer continuously calculates your current speed.

Since timeframes are an illusion, does that mean we can't be profitable using candle charts? I believe not.
  • #57
  • Edited 2:17am Jul 16, 2016 1:00am | Edited 2:17am
@trickshady: If you read all posts of CP and also some of the other posts around his threads, you'll have an idea which indicators he use. I'm quite sure that I know it (it's a kind of indicator using two MAs - which one could it be ) - however I don't know which settings I should use and which threshold levels. All my attempts losing in the long run. Thus, we have to focus on filtering trends vs. ranging conditions.
  • #58
  • Jul 16, 2016 10:36am Jul 16, 2016 10:36am
[quote=trickshady;9032863]I know that time does not affect price but all we get in the retail world is candles. So we just gotta learn to use them. Sure we also get tick charts but I have no idea how to use them effectively. Perhaps you can give us some tips on that. Here is my view on timeframes and price as an analogy. The weekly - daily TFs are seen as a mountain. When you get to the 4hr - 1hr chart, you see that the mountain is composed of rocks. Zoom in to the 5min - 1min chart and you see the patterns rocks have under microscope. Get down to the tick chart and you enter the quantum world of atoms. Newtonian physics laws break down and don't work anymore. Just like the most fundamental unit in the universe is the atom...................

You got what I mean; I'd just like to point out that the matter is the opposite: time does affect our charts because it has the role that should not have.
Time exists on any dimension but is not how we intend it; it is a function of something else and reading your post i'm sure you know what i'm talking about.
This does not mean we cannot use time scaled charts, but everything gets more complicated than it should be, expecially when price action gets strong.
Thereafter there are many ways to trade, CP likes something similar to a scalping method, I like to ride waves, he uses tick charts, but there also are other tools to have better charts.
The first important thing is to understand what is market and what hides behind your charts: there is nothing that complicated but our mind bias acts like a mirror showing always the same mask: we are our worst enemies.
  • #59
  • Jul 16, 2016 10:07pm Jul 16, 2016 10:07pm
I've only recently finished reading all of CP's posts and threads. My whole perspective about the market has changed but I'm not quite there yet. I still have a long way to go but I think I am finally moving on the right track. I'll try to explain time the way I see it.

Let's take the 1min chart for example. Every minute a new candle will form no matter what. If there were no trades in 4 minutes, 4 candles will still form. They will just look like dashes with OHLC = the same number. Things on the tick chart would look different. There will be no movement (ticks) at all in 4 minutes. The tick chart moves only if there is activity. It is not governed by time but by orders. We have 2 types of orders, limit and market. Limit orders wait for price to reach a specific level to execute so they are not governed by time, but by price. Market orders are dependent on time because they happen the moment you execute that order. So depending at what time orders come in, price will move at that time. Could we say that price is somewhat dependent on the orders that are executed at a certain time? Also for limit orders we know the execution price but we don't know at what time that price will be hit. When it hits, price will move. So price is indirectly dependent on time. But I still feel like it is really not dependent at all. It's orders that move price, not time, but these orders happen at a certain time. Would time be a function of order flow in this case since orders happen at a specific time? Am I making any sense or going into the right direction?
  • #60
  • Jul 17, 2016 3:25am Jul 17, 2016 3:25am
Quoting trickshady
I've only recently finished reading all of CP's posts and threads. My whole perspective about the market has changed but I'm not quite there yet. I still have a long way to go but I think I am finally moving on the right track. I'll try to explain time the way I see it. Let's take the 1min chart for example. Every minute a new candle will form no matter what. If there were no trades in 4 minutes, 4 candles will still form. They will just look like dashes with OHLC = the same number. Things on the tick chart would look different. There will be no...
you are walking in parallel with the right way; to understand you have to go beyond trading and markets and find the cross that will lead you on the main way which will bring you deep down into the rabbit hole
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