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  • #13,861
  • Jul 11, 2016 8:01pm Jul 11, 2016 8:01pm
Quoting peterdrill
UVXY had irregular activity on Level 2 today. Somewhat the same thing happened on the Monday after Brexit, when the markets dropped and so did UVXY; but this time it shows the opposite. From what I can see, investors are preparing for a big move up. It could be a temporary move but unsure. Surely whatever occurs, it will be in premarket.
bastards will want to push it up before the r/s, if they can.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,862
  • Jul 11, 2016 8:18pm Jul 11, 2016 8:18pm
Good call on EFA fool. Tried to get in at 57 call but it opened at 0.7 cents. Closed at 13 cents. Previous close 0.3 cents. But, still very low volatility and still cheap.
  • #13,863
  • Jul 12, 2016 12:14am Jul 12, 2016 12:14am
DUST another geared freak always digging a hole....that's a $150 drop in about 3 weeks back in the Winter. Looks like it will have to be getting another rev split soon. Opportunity?
Inserted Video
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-11_2209DUST.png Size: 80 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,864
  • Jul 12, 2016 5:53am Jul 12, 2016 5:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}bastards will want to push it up before the r/s, if they can.
Maybe not so. UVXY becoming more difficult to evaluate lately but here's one prospect:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/petertch.../#4cabdba47ae8
  • #13,865
  • Jul 12, 2016 1:21pm Jul 12, 2016 1:21pm
Quoting peterdrill
Maybe not so. UVXY becoming more difficult to evaluate lately but here's one prospect:
I kind of agree with Tchir there, the ^VIX is prolly gonna keep grinding down while the bull market in equities keeps grinding up. The CB's own the markets and they will use them for their own purposes. They showed what they are capable of and what they will do in the hours after the Brexit vote. There's no point in fighting that kind of tide. Just figure out a way to go along for the ride or stand aside. Super low volatility and CB market lockdown makes for pretty dull trading. I am looking at Q3 earnings already, as noted above with ORCL.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,866
  • Jul 12, 2016 1:41pm Jul 12, 2016 1:41pm
I've taken a long vertical call on the VIX 17 call buy and sold 18 call weekly option for this week only for a net 9c.

The VIX has been higher today with the market plus seeing some weakness with some major stock so took a defined risk trade. I may buy puts near the end on AAPL too
  • #13,867
  • Edited 1:59pm Jul 12, 2016 1:44pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it's a light week on the US econ data release docket, especially Mon-Wed...the SPY chart looks quite bullish and I won't be surprised to see $215 fall by Wed.
in new bull territory no telling how far the spoos can go. If oil would stage a hard rally, that would pull up equities big time. I had $8 PBR Jul 15 calls that came off today for 25c, good pile of those & made me smile for a sec as those went on for <10c debits in multiple calendars going back months. I have RIG Jul and Aug $14 and $15 long calls, also set free from prior calendars....the Aug ones could do well....

The Fed is not gonna raise rates in the face of massive divergence from the other CB's. Maybe the only hope for any long vol action will be the real threats of Ezone disintegration, banking sector collapse, sovereign debt crises, that old song.....

Just look at the charts and you will see what ^VIX and its derivatives can do: scud along a bottom for months at a time. When "insurance" is so cheap, there's a steady demand for it. Watching UVXY - if it only splits up to $30 +/-, it might conceivably have to split again before the end of the year. Unless they pull the plug on it altogether....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,868
  • Jul 12, 2016 2:16pm Jul 12, 2016 2:16pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
I've taken a long vertical call on the VIX 17 call buy and sold 18 call weekly option for this week only for a net 9c. The VIX has been higher today with the market plus seeing some weakness with some major stock so took a defined risk trade. I may buy puts near the end on AAPL too
We might be going into one of those ^VIX doldrums where it just bounces along a bottom even while the SPX grinds up. When vol is so cheap, I will always be looking to put on cheap long vol trades. The best approach imo is to get em as close to atm as possible, with plenty of time, for as cheap as possible. Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,869
  • Jul 12, 2016 2:31pm Jul 12, 2016 2:31pm
Quoting The Fool
it's a light week on the US econ data release docket, especially Mon-Wed...the SPY chart looks quite bullish and I won't be surprised to see $215 fall by Wed. Speaking of weekly income trades - when you are betting on a break out or a trending market, the Big Kahuna can be a good one to put on. The trade below risks $175 on the downside, is safe out past $221, and maxP's $850. It needs those ath's. We been waiting on this breakout fuckall a long time, this needs to be the week.
I put on that SPY Big Kahuna from the prior page and it is a sunny spot in my books, just need SPY to grind up/sideways til Thurs/Fri and I will collect...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,870
  • Jul 12, 2016 6:04pm Jul 12, 2016 6:04pm
Quoting The Fool
When vol is so cheap, I will always be looking to put on cheap long vol trades. The best approach imo is to get em as close to atm as possible, with plenty of time, for as cheap as possible.
best way to get something on with defined risk is calendars and verticals...

===> my general rules for long verts: get as close to itm as possible and try to pay no more than 15c on the $1.00. I have no problem with $0.50 spreads where those are available on VIX or VXX - in that case I am looking for 5c to 10c on the 50c spread. Try to put these on just downstream of an anticipated vol-inducing event (good luck with that)....more time is always better but you pay for that.

re: UVXY - forbidden fruit until after the split then we'll see how the options look. I am going to have a few adjusted things in there for September and December, to remind me of what a hack I am - but who knows, I might manage to make them pay if we get something.

re: diagonals and calendars: try to set these up to catch any event volatility - set the front short leg a week before the event and the back legs following the event.

Again, good luck fishing the events. If it's something scheduled, the CB's will lock it down. Otherwise, it's a crap shoot.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,871
  • Jul 12, 2016 6:35pm Jul 12, 2016 6:35pm
fun Summer reading

http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2012/0...and-maybe-not/

http://www.optionseducation.org/cont..._article_2.pdf
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,872
  • Jul 12, 2016 9:44pm Jul 12, 2016 9:44pm
All feasts must end eventually....I might surmise SPY's bull ride might take a breather, maybe starting Thurs-Fri. I might shop a SPY put vert for next week, similar to what is shown
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,873
  • Jul 12, 2016 10:26pm Jul 12, 2016 10:26pm
I have VXX and UVXY spreads set up for the week of 7/18 since months ago. The UVXY stuff might make a few cents on a vol pop, but I have VXX $15.5/$16 calls, which I may roll down to $14/15 or something in the coming day or so. My original thought was "trouble a'brewin' st the Repub Convention".....but I don't even think the markets care if civil war breaks out....the pigs would prolly not even look up from the trough.

http://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2016/0...-in-cleveland/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,874
  • Jul 12, 2016 11:46pm Jul 12, 2016 11:46pm
Quoting The Fool
All feasts must end eventually....I might surmise SPY's bull ride might take a breather, maybe starting Thurs-Fri. I might shop a SPY put vert for next week, similar to what is shown
Glad to see you back on the horse, TF. These SPY put spreads do look awfully tempting, don't they? Might try some of those myself. I hate that I can't trade these things until late at night my time though. Unlike you I need a proper night's sleep!

Finally got out of both sides of my N225 strangle, even with a slight profit thanks to Abe. Bloody hell, what a drama I'm never going to buy another strangle as long as I live, the stress just isn't worth it. So lesson learned... and the great thing is that I didn't have to tell the missus how much money we lost!
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,875
  • Jul 13, 2016 12:12am Jul 13, 2016 12:12am
Quoting NorthTrader
Glad to see you back on the horse, TF. These SPY put spreads do look awfully tempting, don't they?
hey, NT - yep we know SPY won't go up forever, just remains to be seen if it prints dojis or gives up some healthy southside yardage. I might try some super bear action, bring those strikes up a bit and go out on the calls curve and sell a spread to fund it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,876
  • Jul 13, 2016 12:38am Jul 13, 2016 12:38am
Quoting The Fool
I have VXX and UVXY spreads set up for the week of 7/18 since months ago. The UVXY stuff might make a few cents on a vol pop, but I have VXX $15.5/$16 calls, which I may roll down to $14/15 or something.../
or something: cheaper to add the Jul 22/29 $14.5/$15 call diagonal (7c debit) and the b/e on the combo moves down to $13....doable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-12_2239vxx1.png Size: 74 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,877
  • Jul 13, 2016 12:58am Jul 13, 2016 12:58am
the combo above looks like a Fox - which is arguably even better than a Kitty. OMG, North - do you go to the Fox Village almost every weekend?
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,878
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:32am Jul 13, 2016 2:32am
something to read on the ferry

http://brooklynrail.org/t/11964
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,879
  • Jul 13, 2016 2:56am Jul 13, 2016 2:56am
Quoting The Fool
OMG, North - do you go to the Fox Village almost every weekend? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEUKK7SyY64
Mmm... yummy! That place is like a buffet for us bears
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,880
  • Jul 13, 2016 10:12am Jul 13, 2016 10:12am
Quoting the fool
cheaper to add the jul 22/29 $14.5/$15 call diagonal (7c debit) and the b/e on the combo moves down to $13....doable.
debits 9c all filled
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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