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Trap the Market

  • #81
  • Jul 11, 2016 5:48am Jul 11, 2016 5:48am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Based on my analysis, if GBPUSD reject the DP & WP in a bullish move, I will be looking to trade northward.
Note that cable has not broken the low created since July 7 in spite of retests and the momentum downwards has remained weak. This seems to portend a bullish move in the offing.
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  • #82
  • Jul 11, 2016 7:31am Jul 11, 2016 7:31am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Note that cable has not broken the low created since July 7 in spite of retests and the momentum downwards has remained weak. This seems to portend a bullish move in the offing.

Interesting to see how the EURGBP is retesting an S/R zone which is in confluence with the DP and WP. If the zone is rejected, look for a bearish trade with a tp around the 0.84520/0.84310 area.
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  • #83
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:31am Jul 12, 2016 3:31am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Based on my analysis, if GBPUSD reject the DP & WP in a bullish move, I will be looking to trade northward.
Here's an update on my plan to long GBPUSD upon price rejection of the Weekly Pivot (WP). In the 4-H chart attached, price rejected the trendline and moved upwards in rejection of the WP. That was what I was looking for before considering a trade to the north. How far the trade will go I don't know but my profit target is at the next major resistance zone. I have moved my stop loss to lock in some pips. Trade safe.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_Top-Down_Buy_Trade_July_11,_2016.png Size: 23 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #84
  • Jul 12, 2016 11:03am Jul 12, 2016 11:03am
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} Here's an update on my plan to long GBPUSD upon price rejection of the Weekly Pivot (WP). In the 4-H chart attached, price rejected the trendline and moved upwards in rejection of the WP. That was what I was looking for before considering a trade to the north. How far the trade will go I don't know but my profit target is at the next major resistance zone. I have moved my stop loss to lock in some pips. Trade safe. {image}
When price got to my level, I took the trade. The price moved to over 100 pips thereafter but when it was struggling around the immediate 4-H resistance zone, I exited with 100 pips profit. After taking about 4-hour break to do other things and came back to the market I saw that the price has moved further up and has provided another signal on the 4H chart for a long trade which I took. I am still in that trade. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #85
  • Jul 12, 2016 12:20pm Jul 12, 2016 12:20pm
To trap the market, track the market with proper analysis first. Then wait for your setup to materialize. Never chase the market, never chase price. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #86
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:27am Jul 13, 2016 3:27am
Now tracking GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPCAD. If price retraces to the daily pivot (DP) and bounces off it, it will be a good time to consider entering trade to the north. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87
  • Jul 13, 2016 3:40am Jul 13, 2016 3:40am
Quoting KeenPips
Now tracking GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPCAD. If price retraces to the daily pivot (DP) and bounces off it, it will be a good time to consider entering trade to the north. Trade safe.
That level is in confluence with the immediate 4H support zone.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #88
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:12am Jul 13, 2016 4:12am
Tip:

If you would effectively trap the market, patience is king. You would need to first analyse and understand the market, define your trading boundaries and conditions, plan your trade and decide the right strategies based on the market - then wait.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #89
  • Jul 13, 2016 4:18am Jul 13, 2016 4:18am
Quoting KeenPips
Tip: If you would effectively trap the market, patience is king. You would need to first analyse and understand the market, define your trading boundaries and conditions, plan your trade and decide the right strategies based on the market - then wait.
....patiently wait for the best opportunity to strike.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #90
  • Jul 13, 2016 5:39am Jul 13, 2016 5:39am
Although the EURUSD may appear to be bearing northwards atm, the momentum is weak. A better appreciation of the market is that it is in a range currently but the major direction is more towards the south. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #91
  • Jul 14, 2016 7:32am Jul 14, 2016 7:32am
The momentum for AUDUSD move to the north side is still strong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #92
  • Jul 14, 2016 11:45am Jul 14, 2016 11:45am
Quoting KeenPips
Although the EURUSD may appear to be bearing northwards atm, the momentum is weak. A better appreciation of the market is that it is in a range currently but the major direction is more towards the south. Trade safe.
EURUSD now stuck in a range.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #93
  • Jul 17, 2016 4:17pm Jul 17, 2016 4:17pm
After doing my pre-weekly scan and analysis, I am choosing three pairs from the ten pairs on my watch list for trading opportunity this week.

The three pairs I may likely trade are: EURJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD.

Here is my perspective on the EURJPY. From the weekly time frame, I saw that there was a bullish threat for an upside move but the long upper wick of the second to the last weekly candle indicated there was still a strong bear pressure. Moving to the 4H, which is my setup time frame, here is what I saw and my plan of action: Bulls have been in control for much of the trend, relatively big bull candles and far more bull candles but second-to-last bull candle was an upper-wick pin-bar with a tiny wick at low end followed by a small bull candle with wicks at both ends and which closed above the close of the previous and followed by a bearish spinning top, a sign of bull weakness; bears started getting influential towards upper part of trend initially with a few moderate-sized candles but became stronger with the last two candles being relatively bigger bear candles than most of the previous bull candles; last candle has wicks of equal size at both ends – bears are not yet fully in control; RSI on 4-H bears southwards and ADX bears downwards: momentum to the downside has resumed but it is still weak. Wait for clarity. My plan will be to look for the best opportunity for a trade to the downside using a mean-reversion strategy.

I may be wrong, trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #94
  • Jul 18, 2016 3:48pm Jul 18, 2016 3:48pm
Quoting KeenPips
After doing my pre-weekly scan and analysis, I am choosing three pairs from the ten pairs on my watch list for trading opportunity this week. The three pairs I may likely trade are: EURJPY, GBPCAD and GBPNZD. Here is my perspective on the EURJPY. From the weekly time frame, I saw that there was a bullish threat for an upside move but the long upper wick of the second to the last weekly candle indicated there was still a strong bear pressure. Moving to the 4H, which is my setup time frame, here is what I saw and my plan of action...momentum to the...
I have noticed a double top formation on the 4H chart at a prominent resistance zone. If pa forms another rejection candle at that area, it will be my cue to take a trade southward. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #95
  • Jul 19, 2016 4:08pm Jul 19, 2016 4:08pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} I have noticed a double top formation on the 4H chart at a prominent resistance zone. If pa forms another rejection candle at that area, it will be my cue to take a trade southward. I may be wrong. Trade safe.

I am still biased to the downside on EURJPY. This may seem absurd atm but the weekly outlook and current market structure still favors my bias. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #96
  • Jul 19, 2016 4:20pm Jul 19, 2016 4:20pm
Quoting KeenPips
{quote} I am still biased to the downside on EURJPY. This may seem absurd atm but the weekly outlook and current market structure still favors my bias. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
It should be interesting to observe that price is testing to the downside a confluence area of the daily pivot and 200 EMA on the 4 hour chart. If this is successfully done, that may be the impetus for a strong bearish momentum.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #97
  • Jul 19, 2016 9:50pm Jul 19, 2016 9:50pm
I have just completed my mid-week update, to accommodate any significant change that is impacting on my sentiment for the week on the three pairs I chose to trade. As I have not entered a trade on GBPCAD, I will still keep an eye on the price action but I was wrong in my initial analysis. Here is the update on GBPCAD and GBPNZD, I am still bearish on EURJPY.

GBPCAD: My initial analysis did not favour a strong upward push owing to the long upper wick of last weekly candle and its close far below the open of the bear candle before it. The fact that the upper wick was more than ¾ of the candle range was an indication of further bearish threat. Besides, current GBP post-brexit situation couple with generally stronger USA fundamentals favour further bearish mode for GBPCAD. Furthermore, key technical e.g. 50 SMA, RSI and ADX favour a bearish mode for GBPCAD on my relevant HTFS (weekly, daily and 4H). I will stay off trading the GBPCAD.

GBPNZD: The initial price action on Monday favoured a northward move, which offered an early profit on my long trade. Since then the GBPNZD has been largely ambivalent. Current GBP post-brexit situation couple with generally stronger USA fundamentals favour a bearish mode but constrained by the lack of positively correlated kiwi fundamentals, a reason why GBPNZD has not moved much southwards. In fact, technically, GBPNZD has barely moved below the daily trend line I identified on Sunday and there is potential for a break to the upside as the technicals on daily and 4H time frames are mixed/ambivalent. I will track price action for possible trade on the north; much like good GBP fundamentals during the week will provide the impetus.

I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #98
  • Jul 21, 2016 4:29am Jul 21, 2016 4:29am
Quoting KeenPips
I have just completed my mid-week update, to accommodate any significant change that is impacting on my sentiment for the week on the three pairs I chose to trade. As I have not entered a trade on GBPCAD, I will still keep an eye on the price action but I was wrong in my initial analysis...I may be wrong. Trade safe.
Price has just broken down the trendline I drew on on Sunday on the daily EURJPY chart. That has already offered over 110 pips southwards and has the potential to double that figure. Trade safe.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #99
  • Jul 21, 2016 5:26am Jul 21, 2016 5:26am
Keep up the good work @keenpips. Enjoyed reading through this thread.
  • #100
  • Jul 21, 2016 6:54am Jul 21, 2016 6:54am
Quoting bparker
Keep up the good work @keenpips. Enjoyed reading through this thread.
Thanks m8. Green pips to ya.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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