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95% of the time Price will close above or below the open price

  • #21
  • Jul 11, 2016 10:47am Jul 11, 2016 10:47am
Nice thread Strbac. I have been working on this idea for the past one year because it has merit. Something I feel I have figured things out but then the curve ball surfaces. Anyways, looking forward to learning a thing or two from this thread absent trolls and I'm particular glad to see CP back on ff.
  • #22
  • Jul 11, 2016 11:02am Jul 11, 2016 11:02am
Summary till now...

Main point - "95% of the time Price will close either above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the time, Price will close at its opening price. Within this truth lies the pot of gold."
( am i right in assuming through above sentence that we do not know whether price will go up or down from reference point , also we do not know how far it will go from the reference point )
1 We enter according the first post of the thread and if stop loss is not hit ....
2 than we exit at the close of reference candle.

1. loss of momentum - yellow ma group goes back inside previous ma groups, or ma2 crosses ma3. Interior mas provide trend and momentum quality.
2. or predetermined TP exit like 10 or 20 pips, considering stop is 2 pips
3. or price cuts back through another horizontal line (example 1.10900)
4. or anywhere we have bigger profit than previous losses on the line
  • #23
  • Jul 11, 2016 11:07am Jul 11, 2016 11:07am
Quoting Emmpoli
Nice thread Strbac. I have been working on this idea for the past one year because it has merit. Something I feel I have figured things out but then the curve ball surfaces. Anyways, looking forward to learning a thing or two from this thread absent trolls and I'm particular glad to see CP back on ff.

Thank you...
Would you mind sharing some inputs based on your research spanning last one year .
  • #24
  • Jul 11, 2016 1:39pm Jul 11, 2016 1:39pm
Quoting ronaleo10
... am i right in assuming through above sentence that we do not know whether price will go up or down from reference point , also we do not know how far it will go from the reference point ) 1 We enter according the first post of the thread and if stop loss is not hit .... 2 than we exit at the close of reference candle...
We are taking only longs if the trend is up. We have strong wind pushing the price up, so the price should go up from our reference point. If we are stopped out we reenter to take advantage of the fact that the price will always move away from our reference point, but only in a momentum condition. We do not reenter if the momentum is gone. The candle we are trading is our trading candle, not timeframe candle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 160711-d komentari.jpg Size: 657 KB
  • #25
  • Jul 11, 2016 6:06pm Jul 11, 2016 6:06pm
And so what is your chosen time frame candle upon the close of which you will close your position
  • #26
  • Jul 12, 2016 2:25am Jul 12, 2016 2:25am
it's good point, but you missed some important thing. Without them it's not going to work
God, i love, how i'm trade!!!
  • #27
  • Jul 12, 2016 2:49am Jul 12, 2016 2:49am
Quoting FxBreath
it's good point, but you missed some important thing. Without them it's not going to work
What did I miss?

Thank you.
  • #28
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:11am Jul 12, 2016 3:11am
Hello strbac,

can you please share your template? Thanks.
  • #29
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:13am Jul 12, 2016 3:13am
Quoting strbac
{quote} What did I miss? Thank you.
You did not mention that for this system you need right money management and risk management. And every pair has he's own m/m and r/m
God, i love, how i'm trade!!!
  • #30
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:16am Jul 12, 2016 3:16am
Quoting ar007
Hello strbac, can you please share your template? Thanks.
And I forgot to say. For this system you not need any indicator or historical data.
God, i love, how i'm trade!!!
  • #31
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:21am Jul 12, 2016 3:21am
Quoting strbac
{quote} What did I miss? Thank you.
And you need couple more rules but it's another story
God, i love, how i'm trade!!!
  • #32
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:21am Jul 12, 2016 3:21am
Quoting FxBreath
{quote} And I forgot to say. For this system you not need any indicator or historical data.
Agree, but I woud lke to have all these mas on a chart. With template it would be more easy.
  • #33
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:33am Jul 12, 2016 3:33am
Quoting FxBreath
{quote} And I forgot to say. For this system you not need any indicator or historical data.
  • #34
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:34am Jul 12, 2016 3:34am
Quoting ar007
{quote} Agree, but I woud lke to have all these mas on a chart. With template it would be more easy.
The mas are 10 to 200 wma, spacing 10.
  • #35
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:36am Jul 12, 2016 3:36am
Quoting CrucialPoint
I keep telling people that if they something negative to say about me, then they should post it in the link below: I openly welcome for all the frustrated people to vent out all of their negativity into one thread and not disrupt other people's thread. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=6645523 You guys will enjoy the link I provided (there's even a poll ) because you will find all the like minded people who share your views about me. Please stop disrupting threads and go to the link provided and have a blast there and not...
This is hilarious. Promoting yourself on someone else's thread by blaming people for posting about your blah, blah, blah nonsense on someone else's thread. Priceless.
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #36
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:44am Jul 12, 2016 3:44am
Quoting FxBreath
{quote} And you need couple more rules but it's another story
How would you define the right m/m and r/m for this kind of trading?

What kind of rules?

Thanks for your help.
  • #37
  • Jul 12, 2016 3:51am Jul 12, 2016 3:51am
how long doeas take for you to undestand ~5% doji and ~95% price close up or down related to last bar..?
  • #38
  • Jul 12, 2016 4:37am Jul 12, 2016 4:37am
I wrote this system paper a long time ago (back in 2006). I had only been trading a few years, so it is a bit green in certain areas. The relevance of it is based on what your trying to achieve, trading of a line intraday. However to make this sort of trading work it has to be a little bit more probabilistic than what you are currently thinking. Back collecting of data and applying probabilities to the daily range is crucial for the success and your understanding of the daily probabilities. Entry is the first step the step that makes a system is your profit collection areas, and the probability that they will be hit on a daily basis. For entries I used lines a certain amount if ticks away from the open and then profit lines based on a couple of years of back data probabilities. In current markets, most days based on most pairs, price will make at least 60 ticks away from the open (back in 2006 it was a little more than that) in at least one direction so apply profit level to entries with a 30 and 50 tick run will give you 80 for the day.

I still use this model as a background understanding for taking profits and entries if Im intraday trading. Anyway may or may not be of use to you as paper is a bit old now. Also attached an updated indicator I wrote sometime back that will help you get a visual of the daily moves.

This is not the foundation of my trading but a relevant and useful model for an intraday entry and profit model if you have a direction you want to trade.

Anyway don't want to get to involved here but just thought it may help. all the best.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Batfink Daily Range (A).pdf   792 KB | 2,706 downloads
File Type: mq4 BATFINK_MAIN_HOME_LINE_UKOPEN.mq4   4 KB | 1,090 downloads
  • #39
  • Jul 12, 2016 7:28am Jul 12, 2016 7:28am
Quoting strbac
"95% of the time Price will close either above or below the opening price. Less than 5% of the time, Price will close at its opening price. Within this truth lies the pot of gold." .... Is this a correct way of utilizing this theory? What do you guys think? CrucialPoint? Thanks in advance.
My 2cents is "a line is all you need:reference point"

The attached contains OHLC data of GBPJPY 4H data (2011 - 2016) [Metatrader4 quality data]. Sheet 2 and 3 are where the actual calculations were done. It was a simple "probability check" the summary of which is in sheet 3.

You might find it a quicker way to discover an edge. I did build an EA with it, it showed potential but ultimately failed. I am currently to occupied to investigate it better. Maybe you'd find it useful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx GBPJPY240.xlsx   3.1 MB | 1,014 downloads
  • #40
  • Jul 12, 2016 7:59am Jul 12, 2016 7:59am
A line and 2 time frames coupled with MM is what's needed. Not a get rich quick but it works. Timeframes not for historic analysis but more rather for zoom, MM and exiting. Time frame can be self defined
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