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  • #13,841
  • Jul 10, 2016 2:34am Jul 10, 2016 2:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}This ORCL Sept/Dec kitty with patented Big Kahuna outside protection is a fabulous, fabulous risk free trade. Sets up perfectly with the next ER 9/14, a day before Sep opex. I recommend anyone hock a kidney and put all the proceeds on it asap. And all I can say is, God Bless all the Central Bankers of the World - thank ya'll for giving us this never-ending bull market. Gobbless.... ....the P/L below modeled with a 10% iv rise and up to 1-week before the ER. If the share price has moved towards the calendar strikes it might pay to let the...
Looks like that one has potential. I may jump in. Thanks
  • #13,842
  • Jul 10, 2016 2:48am Jul 10, 2016 2:48am
ok, pete. a trade like that is only as good as the iv movement into the earnings "event". just so you know that going in.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,843
  • Edited 3:03am Jul 10, 2016 2:51am | Edited 3:03am
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonch.../#6b642fdf8e79

"Heres what the next few months could look like: other countries at the G20 force Beijing to stop its dollar-buying, Chinese exports continue their plunge, the renminbi falls fast, and Beijing spends its remaining liquid assets to support the currency as capital gushes out of China. Without assistance from other nations, this series of events could be the trigger for the economic adjustment, possibly in the form of a crash, that Beijing has postponed for years."

hahahaha, don't be silly, Chang, the Central Banks have everything under control.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,844
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:03am Jul 10, 2016 3:03am
http://www.ivolatility.com/roller/page/trader

you can learn a few things aboot volatility trading from the ivolatility website content, such as how/why these earnings calendars are traded....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,845
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:13am Jul 10, 2016 3:13am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.ivolatility.com/roller/page/trader you can learn a few things aboot volatility trading from the ivolatility website content, such as how/why these earnings calendars are traded....
Got it thanks
  • #13,846
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:31am Jul 10, 2016 3:31am
http://www.ivolatility.com/home.j

I notice ivolatility has revamped their website....check the "knowledge base" tab and the blogs backlog for good content. If you get ambitious and wnt to do some long-range backtesting of different trade strategies, they have options data going back to y2k,....for a price
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,847
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:35am Jul 10, 2016 3:35am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.ivolatility.com/home.j I notice ivolatility has revamped their website....check the "knowledge base" tab and the blogs backlog for good content. If you get ambitious and wnt to do some long-range backtesting of different trade strategies, they have options data going back to y2k,....for a price
WMT / CSCO and BABA look good if you look at the IV EST/NOW ratio. Best of the lot anyways.

Meanwhile I'm still somewhat foggy or the last 2 weeks of the VIX downtrend to never never land.
  • #13,848
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:40am Jul 10, 2016 3:40am
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} WMT / CSCO and BABA look good if you look at the IV EST/NOW ratio. Best of the lot anyways. Meanwhile I'm still somewhat foggy or the last 2 weeks of the VIX downtrend to never never land.
And then their's the UVXY split ahead. They will bring it down so that it opens after the split; as you say at $25. Only to then bring it down to hell's level.

So toss a coin and short it in full swing, or gamble toward the upside after the split (unlikely but who knows). I would in this case put my money going north. But I believe otherwise.
  • #13,849
  • Edited 5:58am Jul 10, 2016 3:51am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} WMT / CSCO and BABA look good
meh....the better iv movers are yet to report, they're coming in the last weeks of July and later.....so there is time to contemplate the Q3 ER setups for calendars - those must be put on in the weeks after the ER

re: UVXY - it's not looking too good. If it keeps crashing and only splits to $25-$30, I will prolly wait for a spike on it. Under $30 does not give me enough room to short it with put flys like I am scheming.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,850
  • Jul 10, 2016 1:12pm Jul 10, 2016 1:12pm
there should be a "complacency index"....it would be going parabolic

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/optio...6--sector.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,851
  • Jul 10, 2016 5:16pm Jul 10, 2016 5:16pm
Quoting The Fool
there should be a "complacency index"....it would be going parabolic https://finance.yahoo.com/news/optio...6--sector.html
Nothing norm about this over aged bull market and irrational moves that give me head shakes.

Maybe best to put my money into Universal Pictures in preparation for their upcoming release........"The Bull Crapped In My Pants".
  • #13,852
  • Jul 10, 2016 10:13pm Jul 10, 2016 10:13pm
the "free" market, sure....

http://nypost.com/2016/07/10/dear-jo...rexit-markets/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,853
  • Jul 10, 2016 10:36pm Jul 10, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting The Fool
the "free" market, sure.... http://nypost.com/2016/07/10/dear-jo...rexit-markets/
Yeah right. No surprise here. It's becoming a theoretical spectacle. Only thing missing is the pop.....................corn.

Traders will eventually get sucked into this bull run, only to wake up in the morning and have the early traders crash the markets for their benefit.

I've just raised my lemonade stand and due to deflation in China, reduced my selling price per glass of lemonade.

Then how about those treasuries? Oil not going to hold 40 for long. Gold and silver will break new highs.

I can carry on but no one on Wall Street cares. Manipulate as long as they can on the bull, then watch out below; whenever that may be.

And finally; it's the election year. Historical proven to be bullish. But this year, on what?

Earning will prove to be diluted, even more so on there forecast.
  • #13,854
  • Jul 11, 2016 1:37am Jul 11, 2016 1:37am
TIME TO MAKE THE DONUTS. I am putting on a few cheap bullish trades - adding to Jul 15 EFA $58 long calls, those remaining from a calendar - adding a $56/$57 calendar fro 15c, might gap up past that.

This will be a good week for markets to make outsized moves and put those stale old ath's in the rear view
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,855
  • Jul 11, 2016 1:59am Jul 11, 2016 1:59am
Quoting The Fool
TIME TO MAKE THE DONUTS. I am putting on a few cheap bullish trades - adding to Jul 15 EFA $58 long calls, those remaining from a calendar - adding a $56/$57 calendar fro 15c, might gap up past that. This will be a good week for markets to make outsized moves and put those stale old ath's in the rear view
Wow. Good one. Discount price. I like it. Might get into the custard fill at the open. Thanks
  • #13,856
  • Jul 11, 2016 2:04am Jul 11, 2016 2:04am
Quoting The Fool
TIME TO MAKE THE DONUTS. I am putting on a few cheap bullish trades
it's a light week on the US econ data release docket, especially Mon-Wed...the SPY chart looks quite bullish and I won't be surprised to see $215 fall by Wed.

Speaking of weekly income trades - when you are betting on a break out or a trending market, the Big Kahuna can be a good one to put on. The trade below risks $175 on the downside, is safe out past $221, and maxP's $850. It needs those ath's. We been waiting on this breakout fuckall a long time, this needs to be the week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-10_2356spy1.png Size: 105 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-11_0002spy2.png Size: 85 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,857
  • Jul 11, 2016 4:13am Jul 11, 2016 4:13am
World Trade Indicator claims the Q3 will be sluggish.

https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/n..._08jul16_e.htm
  • #13,858
  • Jul 11, 2016 5:30am Jul 11, 2016 5:30am
HOW I'm loading ORCL Sep/Dec DC Kahuna style, I may shade down the calendar debits as I may be a little early - will watch the iv's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-07-11_0328ORCL.png Size: 98 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,859
  • Edited 12:59pm Jul 11, 2016 11:23am | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting The Fool
the Big Kahuna can be a good one to put on. The trade below risks $175 on the downside, is safe out past $221, and maxP's $850. It needs those ath's.
re: the bullish SPY trade shown above, put it on with $215.5/$216.00 vert, cost a little more than shown, will make some money if SPY holds gains til Thurs-Fri
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,860
  • Jul 11, 2016 7:34pm Jul 11, 2016 7:34pm
UVXY had irregular activity on Level 2 today. Somewhat the same thing happened on the Monday after Brexit, when the markets dropped and so did UVXY; but this time it shows the opposite. From what I can see, investors are preparing for a big move up. It could be a temporary move but unsure. Surely whatever occurs, it will be in premarket.
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