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Trading Logic and Market Constants

  • #21
  • Jul 9, 2016 3:55pm Jul 9, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} That's an excellent question!!! Are you asking the question or is that a rhetorical one? ... Because that's the whole point of my $1 parable ... Because I'm forbidden to show a graph that clearly shows that
It was a rhetorical one (although I don't agree in all your points, I believe that everybody has to ask that question in order to come up with some ideas). Hmm ... you're forbidden to show that. Don't hesitate
  • #22
  • Jul 9, 2016 4:08pm Jul 9, 2016 4:08pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
"Quoting Rparm
So time does not influence the movement of price. "
Whenever you say a statement, every individual has their own interpretation of it... no matter how objective you try to be.
Totally agree with CrucialPoint,
Each person's brain is wired differently. Each person is look and filter the world by their own belief system (that accumulated from the day he was born).

I have my own understanding why Time works.
In winter, will i make profit by selling summer cloths? And vice versa.
Time is season.

In forex,
Will anyone is 'Asian session' BUY CAD/CHF?
Time is session.

Market open vs market close. Time is hours now.

Time does influence people and people influence price.

Market is about people so there is no certainty.
And because there is not 100% sure thing in this world (Black Swan), i don't like the way you make it bold (Time does not influence price sentence).
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #23
  • Jul 9, 2016 4:34pm Jul 9, 2016 4:34pm
Well, I think about Benoit Mandelbrot theory or people could call it "Law". I think We are talking about this theory. In the present day, I am using some concept of his theory.
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  • #24
  • Jul 9, 2016 4:38pm Jul 9, 2016 4:38pm

5. In markets, Time is flexible.
3. Market timing matters greatly.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #25
  • Jul 9, 2016 4:42pm Jul 9, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting Zelo
{quote} Totally agree with CrucialPoint, Each person's brain is wired differently. Each person is look and filter the world by their own belief system (that accumulated from the day he was born). I have my own understanding why Time works.................. Time does influence people and people influence price. Market is about people so there is no certainty.
I agree, that time does influence people and people are influenced by price……...

If you believe that all markets are in fact "Auction Markets"
1) Price—advertises opportunity; there’s a clear distinction between price and value.
2) Time—regulates all advertised opportunities.
3) Value/Volume (price over time)—measures the success or failure of these advertised opportunities.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #26
  • Jul 9, 2016 4:48pm Jul 9, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting Zelo
5. In markets, Time is flexible. 3. Market timing matters greatly.
Yes, I will show U Why?
#3. Market timing matter greatly in pictures.

Plus: Maybe prices changes with memory -----> Support and Resistance is OK to believe.
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  • #27
  • Jul 9, 2016 5:15pm Jul 9, 2016 5:15pm
I'd also agree in #4 ("Prices often leap, not glide"). And here is the point I may disagree with @CrucialPoint who seem that Newton's law of inertia can be applied on markets. Prices do only change as long as (pending) orders are triggered.
  • #28
  • Jul 9, 2016 5:25pm Jul 9, 2016 5:25pm
Quoting Zelo
I have my own understanding why Time works. In winter, will i make profit by selling summer cloths? And vice versa.
Yeah I buy summer clothes in winter and winter clothes in summer.... because they are cheaper in price.
But if it was summer and you still sell it cheap or the same price as if you were to sell it in winter.... I'd still buy it.
People buy it not because of Time... people buy it because of cheaper price. Sell it cheaper in summer and it will sell like hotcakes just like as if you sold it in winter of course your profit will be lower in summer if you sold it cheap. But at the end of the day, people buy it for its cheaper price.

Quoting Zelo
Time is season. In forex, Will anyone is 'Asian session' BUY CAD/CHF? Time is session. Market open vs market close. Time is hours now. Time does influence people and people influence price...
I don't deny Time is season and Time is session. Time is just Time. Time to eat>>> I don't eat because of time, I eat because I'm hungry, but it just happens to be lunch time... when is lunch time >>> its subjective.

Time to trade>>> I don't trade because of time, I trade because I want to make money. It's opening session time >>> I don't trade because the market has opened, I trade when I see an opportunity and if there is no opportunity during opening session, I'm simply not trading and waiting on the sideline.
When does the opportunity present itself>>> I don't know, because it is not due to any particular time. It can present itself at anytime.

What causes people to enter a trade?>> because they gamble. If this world was a big casino with no opening and closing hours and no visible clock at all, people will still be trading. Not because of time, but because they want to trade for whatever reason.

That's my opinion and I could be wrong But please don't get offended by my stupidity


Quoting Zelo
i don't like the way you make it bold (Time does not influence price sentence).
I respect everyone's opinion and everyone has the right to express their opinion.
If I say something that doesn't agree with you, please don't get offended. I'm here to express an opinion and nothing more.
  • #29
  • Jul 9, 2016 6:10pm Jul 9, 2016 6:10pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
Because I'm forbidden to show a graph that clearly shows that
Forbidden to show a graph?
Can you elaborate.
Thank you.

P.S. Happy to see you posting again.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #30
  • Jul 9, 2016 6:28pm Jul 9, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Forbidden to show a graph? Can you elaborate. Thank you. P.S. Happy to see you posting again.
Its just for now as I'm free and then I'm off.
Maybe I'll still post once in a blue moon, maybe every Christmas time.

I've been warned many times to stop with my rant and some of the things I post should not be available to the public.
I used to get the private emails and threats, as long as I don't fully step over the line its OK.
And showing that graph is a big no no.

OK I'm out.
I'll write a nice piece for Christmas
  • #31
  • Edited 8:46pm Jul 9, 2016 7:57pm | Edited 8:46pm
@CrucialPoint, if i continue ague with you, it will be endless.

You eat when your hungry. A lot of people eat when they hungry. What is time when most of people eat? (Depend on culture of course.)
I don't care when you eat. I care when *most* people eat.
If i own a restaurant and know when people eat, i make more money by exploit it their habit.

I sleep because i feel asleep. And because i have nothing to do at 10 PM. But at 10 PM, most of people sleep. (At least from my town)
If i want to steal something, probably from 10PM.
And there are a lot of people to steal from, i don't care when you go to sleep.

You don't trade when market open or market end but there are a lot of people trade. I never seen EUR/USD stand still for 2 hours from +7 GMT.
(But it does stand still for some second.)
You alone create this market? i can 99,99% sure you are not. Why i should care about when you trade or not?

Time give me sense who trade (who = a lot of people, not include you ) and it is information. You can trade with whatever information as long as it is profitable to you.

Anyway @CrucialPoint, Thank you for posting. I enjoyed reading your post. Especially Illusion part.
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #32
  • Jul 9, 2016 8:57pm Jul 9, 2016 8:57pm
Because this topic is also about Trading Logic, so i think this link will helpful to some one:
http://www.businessinsider.com/cogni...cisions-2015-8
When you lose, I'm the loudest who laugh at your face )
  • #33
  • Jul 10, 2016 1:50am Jul 10, 2016 1:50am
Quoting AntiCre
I'd also agree in #4 ("Prices often leap, not glide"). And here is the point I may disagree with CrucialPoint who seem that Newton's law of inertia can be applied on markets. Prices do only change as long as (pending) orders are triggered.
@CrucialPoint: Would you please explain how the law of inertia works in markets? Let's say that there was a big player who invested and that EURUSD thus rises. AFAIK your point was that price will rise as long as another contrary force will stop it (see also that post). But how can that be? Price imho only changes at the moment of a trade, not later. Or is it due to phsychological effects as retail traders step in and ride the new movement?
  • #34
  • Jul 10, 2016 2:49am Jul 10, 2016 2:49am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} @CrucialPoint: Would you please explain how the law of inertia works in markets? Let's say that there was a big player who invested and that EURUSD thus rises. AFAIK your point was that price will rise as long as another contrary force will stop it (see also that post). But how can that be? Price imho only changes at the moment of a trade,...
Mzvega explained it well it very well this post.

Now, knowing how this auction of buyers and sellers, order transaction and execution, etc... isn't going to make you successful.
It's like knowing every detailed rules on how to play basketball isn't going to make you a great basketball player or a great basketball coach.
A lot of people are deluded into thinking that you just need to know certain variables: for example volume of when people trades, or when most people trade or at what time most are vulnerable. What most people don't realize is that trading is like a game of Rock, Paper and Scissors. If you stick to a rigid variable or rigid system strategy say Rock all the time.... you will lose.

Referring back to Mzvega: when a big order is coming in/out (existing or pending), the market will be looking for the buyer/sellers to execute it. As discussed in this thread, price will continue to rise as long as there are willing buyers to continue the trend >>> that's the inertia the "trend". The term "trend is thrown around everywhere, yet nobody discusses in details that there is the beginning, middle and the end phase of a trend. Accumulation and Distribution, Consolidation, etc... are the terms discussed but never objectively quantified into such discussion in forums. That's the inertia and Newtion's law working in the market. If there are no inertia you will get sudden spikes and drops every single second.

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I try to eliminate everything in my trading that isn't useful or the things I deemed fluffs... That's why I don't go analyzing people's behavior, I don't go analyzing historical data... Support and resistance, supply and demand zones, etc... it don't mean shit to me. What matters to me is what is happening now. I couldn't care less if you punch with your right arm 90% of the time, because I don't know when you are going to sucker punch with the left. And it is the left that is going to give the devastating blow. And you see this all the time in trading >>> account steadily grow and the trader is happy and confident, all is going good. And all of a sudden, bang bang bang!!! account blown or down by 90% >>>> WTF just happened???? the trader was heavily relying on historical data which is not the reality.

Sorry if I can't explain it clear for you... as I said it in my previous post; if it was as simple as 1 + 1 = 2 then all of you will be rich.
If you understand Mzvega threads you will understand how it all works >>> but knowing the rules or its clockwork alone isn't going to make you successful.

Again, I'm not here to convince anyone. To each their own.


Peace,
CrucialPoint
  • #35
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:05am Jul 10, 2016 3:05am
Thank you that much, CP - now it's clear. Thus, your understanding isn't really different from mine.
  • #36
  • Jul 10, 2016 3:52am Jul 10, 2016 3:52am
CrucialPoint yup i agree 100%
  • #37
  • Edited 4:43am Jul 10, 2016 4:26am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} Mzvega explained it well it very well this post. Now, knowing how this auction of buyers and sellers, order transaction and execution, etc... isn't going to make you successful. It's like knowing every detailed rules on how to play basketball isn't going to make you a great basketball player or a great basketball coach. A lot of people are deluded into thinking that you just need to know certain variables: for example volume of when people trades, or when most...

Might I ask how you or anyone in this discussion to define the "beginning" of inertia? Would you say the rising/falling of price from now? Also if removing all but now, how can one distinguish which phase of of trend is active? How do you figure accumulation vs consolidation without time?

Moment of trade only after confirmation of price movement from now. moment of exit only after confirmation of price movement from now.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #38
  • Jul 10, 2016 5:19am Jul 10, 2016 5:19am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Might I ask how you or anyone in this discussion to define the "beginning" of inertia? Would you say the rising/falling of price from now? Also if removing all but now, how can one distinguish which phase of of trend is active? How do you figure accumulation vs consolidation without time? Moment of trade only after confirmation of price movement from now. moment of exit only after confirmation of price movement from now.
Let me give you some answers:

  1. for inertia
  2. for trend phases

But even if you read all posts of CP and related posts, you have to investigate a test much more. It's a lot of work. I'm still not there ...

  • #39
  • Jul 10, 2016 6:36am Jul 10, 2016 6:36am
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} That's an excellent question!!! Are you asking the question or is that a rhetorical one? ... Because that's the whole point of my $1 parable ... Because I'm forbidden to show a graph that clearly shows that
Any study of market sentiment will show that dumb money is usually found on the wrong side of the trade, and when it isn't the market will return to get their positions. This is hardly a big secret - Larry Williams used CoT data since the 70's and there are even a couple of threads in the trading systems forums using publicly available sentiment data from brokers and exploiting this behavior.

k
  • #40
  • Edited 9:42am Jul 10, 2016 8:35am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Unconventional Wisdom :nerd: There were 99 Professional smart traders and 1 CrucialPoint. After careful analysis of price history and technical details (fundamental et al..), They decided (all 99 of them) to buy into the market. God forbid, CrucialPoint was this nutcase who constantly has his episode of mental diarrhia (whom to some, CrucialPoint is full of shit, with very little substance and very little practical and applicable advice) and decided to proclaim to the whole world that he is going to sell against the Pro's and will make money......
I bet one big fat executive of a big bank would be rolling on the floor laughing about our discussion.I have been reading your posts in the past , CP, and still cannot decide about your intentions. ( I have seen what happens if "they" really don't want you to post anymore, but you are still here...so...), but I will give you a benefit of the doubt, becouse I cannot know... but...
... it is ridicolous to think the starter of this thread, you or me would move the market ( we sure would not be posting here) or the price, but beside crucial point, there is also basic point of all markets since stone age:
If 99% of market participants would be buyers ( in any market- even if selling fish or whatever), the price goes up.
So when you say it went down the next day, who do you think sold into it to move it down ( agree that time is irrelevant, it could have happened in 10 min or in 1 week). IF THE PRICE MOVED DOWN AFTER 99% OF TRADERS( whole market trade size at that time) BOUGHT INTO IT, THERE WAS SOMEONE MUCH BIGGER THAT SAW THOSE ORDERS AND DECIDED TO STEAL THEIR $$$ WITH PLACING MUCH MUCH BIGGER ORDER COUNTER DIRECTION! As simple as that. And since the starter of this thread, you, me or any poster here cannot see the orders executed, pending or direct, we cannot get rich quick. The story is of course different when it comes to institutions that ARE able to see the orders and HAVE much more $$$ than you or me or anybody here will ever have ( becouse it is fiat paper money).

BTW, I understand opportunity makes the tief- If you could see lets say big buy orders at higher price, wouldn't you buy into the market if you would be able to and get those orders hit if you would earn from the commissions? And while you would be at it, it couldn't hurt if you would later sell good, to stop hunt the same buy orders and get even more ? I think you would, or at least that 95% of people would, the only problem is they are not in the opportunity. Period.


The market we trade is not simple, but imho we don't have to make it more complicated than it is.
Good luck and green pips to you all.

EDIT:

">>> account steadily grow and the trader is happy and confident, all is going good. And all of a sudden, bang bang bang!!! account blown or down by 90% >>>> WTF just happened???? "

IMHO, the answer is very simple again:
Greed or stubborness or any other emotion happened- it is human mistake ( and not markets fault) that goes under trade management and money management. Nobody HAS TO stick to the red trade, anybody can exit at 1%, 5%, 10% or 50%, whenever a trader decides.
PVSRA
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