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The Swamp

  • #6,941
  • Edited 11:33am Jul 8, 2016 11:04am | Edited 11:33am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} also missed EJ this morning @ 111.04 by a pip but it came back with vengeance. my stop got missed by 4 pips. 19 pip drawdown now +3. my intentions are long term this pair..
Thanks for the idea, EJ is down 27K pips away from norm, however I don't have any decent bull setup in EJ atm, could you please share it ?
-------------------------------
L rolled below yest.'s, and on the bear side, Last H closed on the bear side, this hour is H4 closing. ....(eurusd)
  • #6,942
  • Jul 8, 2016 11:31am Jul 8, 2016 11:31am
still between.. bears have a deeper setup. 1245/26ish may be somewhat supportive. possibly even before
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #6,943
  • Jul 8, 2016 11:34am Jul 8, 2016 11:34am
Anyone got a monthly cable chart that goes before 1994?
  • #6,944
  • Jul 8, 2016 11:45am Jul 8, 2016 11:45am
Quoting NaughtyPip
Anyone got a monthly cable chart that goes before 1994?
Here :
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  • #6,945
  • Jul 8, 2016 12:02pm Jul 8, 2016 12:02pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Thanks for the idea, EJ is down 27K pips away from norm, however I don't have any decent bull setup in EJ atm, could you please share it ? ------------------------------- L rolled below yest.'s, and on the bear side, Last H closed on the bear side, this hour is H4 closing. ....(eurusd)

target met on weekly... did not trade there but there seems some rejection so i might as well take a small risk.

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this particular reason on 30 minute tf.

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  • #6,946
  • Edited 1:28pm Jul 8, 2016 12:05pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting edyraper
L rolled below yest.'s, and on the bear side, Last H closed on the bear side, this hour is H4 closing. ....(eurusd)
H4 closed above L close let's see if week can make the weekly green...

Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} target met on weekly... did not trade there but there seems some rejection so i might as well take a small risk. {image} this particular reason on 30 minute tf. {image}
Thanks for the setup will zoom in for a good entry.

Quoting edyraper
Thanks for the setup will zoom in for a good entry.
(eurjpy) zoomed in I see a chance to long 109.75 with tight sl I'll wait for it, if new LL then 108.8x likely the next. 110.092 might be indicator close wise, bulls defending for now, Hourly never closed below since brexit, L scalp 110.3x and 109.7x looks much better RR wise.

Dow & sp making HHs, Brexit gone....

........
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  • #6,947
  • Jul 8, 2016 1:38pm Jul 8, 2016 1:38pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Here : {image}
thanks
  • #6,948
  • Jul 8, 2016 2:56pm Jul 8, 2016 2:56pm
little channel since low for the channel trader.. trend still down. looking for clues. L close 29588
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #6,949
  • Jul 9, 2016 7:47am Jul 9, 2016 7:47am
Gator, Ken or someone else can maybe help me out here.

I was looking at the charts and I don't really understand the correlations anymore. Maybe I see it too simplistic.

Yen and gold are generally safe havens in risk-off environments, they are both soaring, so risk-off.

Oil is falling again, but the commodity currencies are rising especially New Zealand dollar.

Stocks are also soaring, generally risk-off I guess.

So looking at yen and gold it looks like a risk environment but it doesn't reflect in stocks and commodity currencies(I understand they are pumping free money in the economy everywhere).

So everything looks a little bit contradictory or am I missing something? Can this situation keep up or something ready to blow up?
  • #6,950
  • Jul 9, 2016 11:40am Jul 9, 2016 11:40am
Quoting ceetee
Gator, Ken or someone else can maybe help me out here. I was looking at the charts and I don't really understand the correlations anymore. Maybe I see it too simplistic. Yen and gold are generally safe havens in risk-off environments, they are both soaring, so risk-off. Oil is falling again, but the commodity currencies are rising especially New Zealand dollar. Stocks are also soaring, generally risk-off I guess. So looking at yen and gold it looks like a risk environment but it doesn't reflect in stocks and commodity currencies(I understand they...
Risk are from brexit but in the other side of the world (US) market currently enjoy a relief rally from latest NFP.
  • #6,951
  • Jul 9, 2016 12:04pm Jul 9, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Risk are from brexit but in the other side of the world (US) market currently enjoy a relief rally from latest NFP.
​
Thanks for the reply. But why are Australian and New Zealand dollar rising? Oil is falling again and you still have the China fears in that region. I understand the relief rally in stocks, but if stocks are rising, shouldn't the Yen getting dumped especially against the dollar?
  • #6,952
  • Jul 9, 2016 12:20pm Jul 9, 2016 12:20pm
Quoting ceetee
{quote} ​ Thanks for the reply. But why are Australian and New Zealand dollar rising? Oil is falling again and you still have the China fears in that region. I understand the relief rally in stocks, but if stocks are rising, shouldn't the Yen getting dumped especially against the dollar?
May I add a point?
Dont forget that BOJ is a local branch of FED!
  • #6,953
  • Jul 9, 2016 2:44pm Jul 9, 2016 2:44pm
Quoting ceetee
{quote} ​ Thanks for the reply. But why are Australian and New Zealand dollar rising? Oil is falling again and you still have the China fears in that region. I understand the relief rally in stocks, but if stocks are rising, shouldn't the Yen getting dumped especially against the dollar?
Hey ceetee, seeing if I can help a bit here. Remember Aussie and Kiwi are commodity currencies, but they are linked to gold, not oil. Gold has been on the rise, so it makes sense that these pairs would be heading higher.

That said, Aussie is also linked to growth in China since a lot of Australia's exports go to China. But if China isn't importing, that will hurt Australia and the demand for Aussie (not importing products means not converting CNY to AUD = less demand).

Hope that helps a bit.

But also remember that correlations are just that... correlations. They aren't rules. Things can move independently and correlations can break.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #6,954
  • Jul 9, 2016 3:20pm Jul 9, 2016 3:20pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Hey ceetee, seeing if I can help a bit here. Remember Aussie and Kiwi are commodity currencies, but they are linked to gold, not oil. Gold has been on the rise, so it makes sense that these pairs would be heading higher. That said, Aussie is also linked to growth in China since a lot of Australia's exports go to China. But if China isn't importing, that will hurt Australia and the demand for Aussie (not importing products means not converting CNY to AUD = less demand). Hope that helps a bit. But also remember that correlations are just that......
Thanks for the explanation. I thought part of the kiwi and aussie was also partly linked to oil. It was also what I thought that with the China uncertainty and outlook the aussie would go down but it is climbing again. I have seen the AN chart and the kiwi seems to be going to parity again, so it is normal that that one is even going up quicker.

I thought in a risk-off environment aussie and kiwi would get sold off. Like you said, correlations are not rules. Maybe something is brewing in the background?

I appreciate your and other people's vision. Thanks.
  • #6,955
  • Edited 3:55am Jul 10, 2016 3:34am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting ceetee
{quote} ​ Thanks for the reply. But why are Australian and New Zealand dollar rising? Oil is falling again and you still have the China fears in that region. I understand the relief rally in stocks, but if stocks are rising, shouldn't the Yen getting dumped especially against the dollar?
Sisse has already mentioned the point in the other thread as well.
The currency flow is from YEN->EU->DOLLAR->COMMODITIES CURRENCIES-> OTHERS. if u zoom out from MNly chart the exact flow happend in 2008 This is actually very complex problem and im still waiting for Sisse to explain the flow.
But as far as i understand it, when risk is on money flow to safe haven aka dollar. When risk is off money flow to currency with higher yield. In this case brexit cause tremendous change and uncertainty, money that invested in UK WILL flow out to higher yield instrument thats outside of UK.
hope it help
  • #6,956
  • Jul 10, 2016 8:01am Jul 10, 2016 8:01am
Quoting gatorinla
little channel since low for the channel trader.. trend still down. looking for clues. L close 29588 {image}
Hi gator, R u trading the SnP500?, I see a norm at 158x.xx strong one, using MN chart...
  • #6,957
  • Jul 10, 2016 4:23pm Jul 10, 2016 4:23pm
Nice week, BoC, BoE and US CPI's are ahead. GL.
  • #6,958
  • Jul 10, 2016 6:19pm Jul 10, 2016 6:19pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Hi gator, R u trading the SnP500?, I see a norm at 158x.xx strong one, using MN chart...
Hes been mentioning that level, namely summer 2013 levels for months, he called a good R/R short on it the begining of june from 2118, it fell to 2050 shortly after.
  • #6,959
  • Jul 10, 2016 11:21pm Jul 10, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting Wgold2
{quote} Hes been mentioning that level, namely summer 2013 levels for months, he called a good R/R short on it the begining of june from 2118, it fell to 2050 shortly after.
Been watching it for the past 9 months...... She must be the one
  • #6,960
  • Edited Jul 11, 2016 12:05am Jul 10, 2016 11:39pm | Edited Jul 11, 2016 12:05am
Pending SHORT
S/O
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
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