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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,801
  • Jun 29, 2016 6:15am Jun 29, 2016 6:15am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Brexit will quickly become a "distant overseas problem" ... .
Good article, imo about it
https://lplresearch.com/2016/06/28/m...ons-on-brexit/
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #13,802
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:07am Jun 29, 2016 8:07am
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/...221500411.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,803
  • Jun 29, 2016 9:44am Jun 29, 2016 9:44am
Quoting The Fool
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/video/...221500411.html
yeah I hear ya, already discussed with S.D. a few pages back. Also mentioned the longer term VIX implied volatility wasn't ready also a few pages back, that should be ready near US elections
  • #13,804
  • Jun 29, 2016 9:47am Jun 29, 2016 9:47am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yeah I hear ya, already discussed with S.D. a few pages back. Also mentioned the longer term VIX implied volatility wasn't ready also a few pages back, that should be ready near US elections
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post9002303

page 687
  • #13,805
  • Jun 29, 2016 11:36am Jun 29, 2016 11:36am
Quoting The Fool
the Brexit was a terrible, terrible thing, we were all so afraid it would happen, terrified, and then it happened, but ya know, it weren't that bad, so we just bought everything....hooray for Brexit! What? There was another ISIS mass murder? Hooray, hooray! Buy more Stocks! Buy Commodities! Buy Everything!
lol, what was all the fuss about? The market was going to drop and bounce on the Brexit regardless of the outcome. The people who own the markets should just have regularly scheduled "Dump 'n Bounce" events, maybe twice a year, just to keep the sideways market interesting.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,806
  • Edited 4:29pm Jun 29, 2016 4:00pm | Edited 4:29pm
lots of blood and gore on my books from the Jul 01 VXX spreads that I have let ride, pretty sad, as those were in good profit several times during the ^VIX gyrations of the last weeks...so sad too bad. I had $10/$9 UVXY puts diagonal from last week - I closed some of those Friday for ~net 20c, but I also let some $9 long puts run into this week and if we have another runaway bull day, those could give back >50c.....the spread cost 4c new. A few rays of hope here and there in the CAT and AAPL Jul/Aug DC's, EFA $58 calls calendar Jul 01/Jul15....oil and nat gas, some others....lots of VXX spreads strung out thru July and into September...who knows what will happen?

UVXY may not survive thru next week w/o the r/s notice, at the rate things are going....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,807
  • Jun 29, 2016 4:07pm Jun 29, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting The Fool
lots of blood and gore on my books from the Jul 01 VXX spreads that I have let ride, pretty sad, as those were in good profit several times during the ^VIX gyrations of the last weeks...so sad too bad. I had $10/$9 UVXY puts diagonal from last week - I closed some of those Friday for ~net 20c, but I let the $9 long puts run into this week and if we have another runaway bull day, those could give back >50c.....the spread cost 4c new. A few rays of hope here and there in the CAT and AAPL Jul/Aug DC's, EFA $58 calls calendar Jul 01/Jul15....oil and...
I held onto my July 15 calls when also could have sold for a nice profit on Monday. If nothing progresses during earnings season; in hopes that all will change when google reports later in July. Will hold till expiry and probably go worthless. Still holding August and September. Need a bounce to $16.
  • #13,808
  • Jun 29, 2016 4:25pm Jun 29, 2016 4:25pm
this was a wild mofo to ride, Pete. Many times I had chances to get out but did not, but often it seemed the best times for me were overnight, and by morning things had changed. Most of the carnage has been on safe spreads that were quite cheap from the get go....but, death by a thousand cuts, as they say....

.. it will be interesting to see if there be some profit taking at month- and quarter end, but I doubt it. The Fed Heads will never miss a good chance to cop a dovish stance. The last thing they want to do is start raising rates and see the stock market crash....I suspect it'll be punch till Hillary is sworn in.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,809
  • Jun 29, 2016 4:45pm Jun 29, 2016 4:45pm
Quoting The Fool
this was a wild mofo to ride, Pete. Many times I had chances to get out but did not, but often it seemed the best times for me were overnight, and by morning things had changed. Most of the carnage has been on safe spreads that were quite cheap from the get go....but, death by a thousand cuts, as they say.... .. it will be interesting to see if there be some profit taking at month- and quarter end, but I doubt it. The Fed Heads will never miss a good chance to cop a dovish stance. The last thing they want to do I start raising rates and see the...
Your guess sounds like a unforgiving reality. Monday's morning movement was puzzling at best, and I also came close to pushing the sell bottom (several times). The aristocrats are taking this market to new highs, and it would take WWIV to end it. Even durable goods and housing down, and probably more to come but nothing stopping reality. But, it can only last for so long. I read a survey yesterday indicating that 70% of Americans believe that the US is in a recession. I guess the remaining 30% are controlling the market trend and people like me.

Bruce Sebastian (video on Yahoo) made plenty of sense. Just wish I realized that before Monday. Even-though I witnessed the event in real-time and noticed the erratic and strange behavior of the VIX's. Now I know and lesson learned.

Well, now back to "tastytrade" videos.
  • #13,810
  • Jun 29, 2016 5:41pm Jun 29, 2016 5:41pm
A head scratcher ... . We're basically back to pre-Brexit levels here. Had me scrambling to roll up short put side in case this is a "Stairway to Heaven" ... . Yeesh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,811
  • Jun 29, 2016 5:45pm Jun 29, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
A head scratcher ... . We're basically back to pre-Brexit levels here. Had me scrambling to roll up short put side in case this is a "Stairway to Heaven" ... . Yeesh.
I debated the put theory and just simply gave up. "Dazed and Confused" myself.
  • #13,812
  • Jun 29, 2016 5:53pm Jun 29, 2016 5:53pm
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} I debated the put theory and just simply gave up. "Dazed and Confused" myself.
Well, now that we're back to this 2080-ish level, maybe things will calm down a bit ... . I hate putting on a delta neutral setup, only to have price uber rip to one side or the other with like 30+ days until expiry the day after I put it on. Annoying, but also -- nature of the beast ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,813
  • Jun 29, 2016 5:58pm Jun 29, 2016 5:58pm
Seriously?! VIX bleeding out to sub-17 before I can put any meaningful premium selling setups on? Fahhhck ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,814
  • Jun 29, 2016 6:19pm Jun 29, 2016 6:19pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Seriously?! VIX bleeding out to sub-17 before I can put any meaningful premium selling setups on? Fahhhck ... .
I need to move on after being raped repeatedly by the incredibly corrupt options market. I doubt we will see anything now but complete market manipulation, the US stock markets will simply never correct as long as there is a whorish Federal Reserve doing its bidding. Same general arrangement virtually everywhere else. There needs to be a whole lot of top-down bloodletting. Meanwhile, get used to trading no volatility. Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,815
  • Jun 29, 2016 6:28pm Jun 29, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I need to move on after being raped repeatedly by the incredibly corrupt options market. I doubt we will see anything now but complete market manipulation, the US stock markets will simply never correct as long as there is a whorish Federal Reserve doing its bidding. Same general arrangement virtually everywhere else. There needs to be a whole lot of top-down bloodletting. Meanwhile, get used to trading no volatility. Good Luck.
I wounder how well the Fed knows their shit.

Inserted Video
  • #13,816
  • Jul 2, 2016 9:35pm Jul 2, 2016 9:35pm
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,817
  • Edited 5:23pm Jul 4, 2016 5:11pm | Edited 5:23pm
THIS is an interesting one I will load for silver, using SLW and SLV. I say "risk-free" there - and that can be true if you hit the ratios right. However, trading silver, note what the iv's do with the movement of the underlying: iv's rise with price. So, the sneaky worse case on the trade is if the price slides, there's a potential for the overall return of the setup to be very low (at the downside dip), maybe <$0, just depends on what the iv's do. It would be nice to get a pullback and then enter...

...more interesting is the structure of the trade, where I use calendars guarded on their ends by cheap verticals. Basically, you can use calendars to "bridge" out to where the cheap verticals can be put on. If you space the calendars right and adjust the ratios (ie, the relative sizes of the individual trades in the combo), then you can (possibly) "always" find risk-free or nearly risk-free setups like this, in any liquid name. "Always" is a big word, not enough experience trying this to know if that is true - but will be looking....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post9012342
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,818
  • Jul 6, 2016 5:20pm Jul 6, 2016 5:20pm
I took the restriction off the thread so anyone can post. Feel free. I prolly won't be posting much myself, trying to wean myself off forum time. Have other ways to journal, track & manage trades, much more useful. Will occasionally throw out some trade ideas. Grain 'o salt.

Such as: yes, still a junkie and watching ^VIX crashing down 13 way maybe lower, but I don't believe there won't be a spike or three in the coming months, things are just too fucked up to avoid it. So, yeah, when vol is cheap, you buy vol. That's what options traders do.

However, UVXY will post a 1:5 rev split and come back with that new note price 7/25. I have a way to try to ride that down the inevitable chute to <$10, using put flys, hope to see it come in > $50 so I will have some room to work....doubtful. Anyway, short UVXY about the surest thing there is, but there's just no easy way to do it, it seems,...but we'll see.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,819
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:08am Jul 7, 2016 10:08am
bought a VXX strangle near the open, when /ES was up and VXX was near $13 even, Fri expiry $12.5/$13.5 for 14c.....I have played this trade at many NFP's, wait til Thursday and try to get in a $1-wide strangle for 15c or less...sometimes it works...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,820
  • Jul 7, 2016 4:07pm Jul 7, 2016 4:07pm
Quoting The Fool
bought a VXX strangle near the open, when /ES was up and VXX was near $13 even, Fri expiry $12.5/$13.5 for 14c.....I have played this trade at many NFP's, wait til Thursday and try to get in a $1-wide strangle for 15c or less...sometimes it works...
the $13.50 calls went to 32c when VXX rose to >$13.50....I had a 35c gtc on it....pretty sure it missed....will see what tomorrow brings...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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