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Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

  • #3,061
  • Jul 7, 2016 9:50am Jul 7, 2016 9:50am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,062
  • Jul 7, 2016 9:50am Jul 7, 2016 9:50am
Quoting PippyTheGrt
{quote} Indeed. Also works on daily. The 4th day is statistically in the other direction more often than not. Which may or may not be the case in an individual case. It can go either way, so don't be surprised if it does
then again 4 15min bars are only 1 of 1H bar.
isn't price the only thing that matters?
where is price at the moment you make that decision, does it make sense to close NOW?
The quality of your life is brought about by the quality of your thinking.
  • #3,063
  • Jul 7, 2016 9:56am Jul 7, 2016 9:56am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Thanks. You make great points.
You too. Facts are facts. Statistical facts matter too but you need to put them in the right perspective. I guess that (amongst others) I'm trying to make a point that causation and correlation are not the same.

You can expect a daily high and low 100%.

You cannot expect the 4th candle to be of opposite color although that is statistically more likely given a large enough sample size (you can check that on e.g. a daily chart).

EDIT "you need" should be "one needs".
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #3,064
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:01am Jul 7, 2016 10:01am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,065
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:01am Jul 7, 2016 10:01am
Quoting hornet
{quote} then again 4 15min bars are only 1 of 1H bar. isn't price the only thing that matters? where is price at the moment you make that decision, does it make sense to close NOW?
Some argue that volume matters too. More to the point: what matters to you ? What do YOU need to make the decision ? Some need price and volume. Or only price. And time. That is also a matter of belief. One would be well advised to pick a belief that is profitable. If not, change your belief.

Same with closing NOW. If it makes sense to the trader, then go for it. But make sure it is w.r.t. your plan, because you need a reference frame for improvement. That is something I believe
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #3,066
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:08am Jul 7, 2016 10:08am
Quoting PippyTheGrt
{quote}... You cannot expect the 4th candle to be of opposite color although that is statistically more likely given a large enough sample size...
ex·pect
ikˈspekt/
verb

  1. regard (something) as likely to happen.
    "we expect the best"
    synonyms:anticipate, await, look for, hope for, look forward to; More

    1. regard (someone) as likely to do or be something.
      "they were not expecting him to continue"
      synonyms:suppose, presume, think, believe, imagine, assume, surmise; More
    2. believe that (someone or something) will arrive soon.
      "Celia was expecting a visitor"


Technically, trading is based on expectation.

ex·pec·ta·tion
ˌekspekˈtāSH(ə)n/
noun

  1. a strong belief that something will happen or be the case in the future.


What would be the reason anyone would trade if they did not have expectations?

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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,067
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:32am Jul 7, 2016 10:32am
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"Perfection is not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take away." - Antoine De Saint Exupery

"It is not about adding on, but taking away. The less technique, the better you are." - Bruce Lee


Please understand none of this is original or new and this is presented for EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. You may find your results may differ. Please check with an accredited financial specialist before using real money. FOREX trading can be risky. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,068
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:38am Jul 7, 2016 10:38am
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The questions about 1.30000, 1.29000 and 1.28000 were not about predicting.
What if 1.30000 was the highest H1 open and 1.29000 was the lowest H1 open?
What would you do when price reached those levels?


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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,069
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:39am Jul 7, 2016 10:39am
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My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,070
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:58am Jul 7, 2016 10:58am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} expect ikˈspekt/ verb regard (something) as likely to happen. "we expect the best" synonyms:anticipate, await, look for, hope for, look forward to; More regard (someone) as likely to do or be something. "they were not...
Good point. Replace "expect" by "be 100% sure that".

I trust that makes things clear
It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are - E.E. Cummings
  • #3,071
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:05am Jul 7, 2016 11:05am
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Bear or Bull?
So a bar makes a very high daily high, (far from the open) you suggest not to enter the trade if there are 3-5 bear candles going towards the open. It'll just rebound and make a new higher open.
  • #3,072
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:24am Jul 7, 2016 11:24am
Quoting wannalearn12
{quote} So a bar makes a very high daily high, (far from the open) you suggest not to enter the trade if there are 3-5 bear candles going towards the open. It'll just rebound and make a new higher open.
Assuming you are observing 3 - 5 M5 or M1 bear candles above the current highest H1 open.
A new higher H1 open is a distinct possibility depending on how much time before the current H1 candle closes.
Astute observation.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,073
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:34am Jul 7, 2016 11:34am
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Rule #1
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,074
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:48am Jul 7, 2016 11:48am
Too slow Too good.You are doing Fantastic over and over again .
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Say something meaningful or Silence!!
  • #3,075
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:52am Jul 7, 2016 11:52am
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The rules are only guidelines.
Suggestions to minimize your losses.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,076
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:52am Jul 7, 2016 11:52am
Quoting classy
Too slow Too good.You are doing Fantastic over and over again . {image}
Thank you.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,077
  • Jul 7, 2016 12:01pm Jul 7, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting classy
Too slow Too good.You are doing Fantastic over and over again . {image}
I agree, absolute grace.
  • #3,078
  • Jul 7, 2016 1:19pm Jul 7, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting hornet
{quote} 1.2800
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What have you learned hornet?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #3,079
  • Jul 7, 2016 2:00pm Jul 7, 2016 2:00pm
Hello TooSlow

A clarification about Rule1.
When a "H1" bar print a new daily high (in the example below D1[0] High=1.29971) we are not allowed to take any trade for the rest of the hour on that pair even if at the end of the hour is remaining 59 minutes.
In the example below "H1" will end after "0h 26m 14s" so is necessary to wait "0h 26m 14s" before considering any trade on that chart.
In other words is necessary to wait for the next "H1" bar.

Do I interprete correctly Rule1?

Cheers
Merka
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  • #3,080
  • Jul 7, 2016 2:16pm Jul 7, 2016 2:16pm
Crude Oil at red news. Left too much on the table.

Don't trade the news, unless you have enough experience. No wick on the H1 bar (against the rule #3).
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