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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,201
  • Jul 4, 2016 11:00am Jul 4, 2016 11:00am
Quoting Winston Reed
Scalping a few. {image}


is that a 5min 'speedbump' zone, or something else on a higher tf?
  • #4,202
  • Jul 4, 2016 12:48pm Jul 4, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} is that a 5min 'speedbump' zone, or something else on a higher tf?
The datily and lower time frames are lined up nicely. Price hit the H4 zone with 15m zone within. I wasn't awake for this but price moved out nicely with nice engulfs. When I looked at the chart price had retraced and moved out with a strong close above the other closes under that magenta line. This is the proverbial flip zone as Ken used to call it. To me new demand was created here and worth the" touch trade". I don't know about the "speed bump" term. I think in terms of supply/demand creation. In this case demand is in control and when I carefully looked at it, it seemed the best entry at the time I started looking at it.

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  • #4,203
  • Jul 4, 2016 12:52pm Jul 4, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} The datily and lower time frames are lined up nicely. Price hit the H4 zone with 15m zone within. I wasn't awake for this but price moved out nicely with nice engulfs. When I looked at the chart price had retraced and moved out with a strong close above the other closes under that magenta line. This is the proverbial flip zone as Ken used to call it. To me new demand was created here and worth the" touch trade". I don't know about the "speed bump" term. I think in terms of supply/demand creation. In this case demand is in control and when...
​The trade was taken within context of the overall picture. Yes it is a 5 min area but one that occurs within a larger demand scenario. Pullbacks into freshly created zones are great areas to enter if supported in the overall picture.
  • #4,204
  • Jul 4, 2016 1:00pm Jul 4, 2016 1:00pm
AU is interesting. Price has entered a larger daily supply area and is pushing up through it. The 30 min engulfs are nice. On the 5 min chart you can see the pull-backs we're perfect entries. I didn't trade this. I'm actually still looking for reversal signs but this is a good example of how PA trumps our perfectly drawn zones. (Maybe my Daily zone is not so good. LOL)
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  • #4,205
  • Jul 4, 2016 3:57pm Jul 4, 2016 3:57pm
Great stuff Winston.

Very nice entry on EU earlier. Just what we're looking for..

Anyway. Here's today's EU H2 chart --- Thought it was quite interesting.
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  • #4,206
  • Jul 4, 2016 9:42pm Jul 4, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting Mong00se
{quote} Unfortunately, the code of this indicator is combined with the rest of my indicators/tools, therefore I cannot share it. You can try this as an alternative: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=159644
No problem Mong00se, that was what i'm looking for.
Thank you
  • #4,207
  • Jul 5, 2016 2:33am Jul 5, 2016 2:33am
Anyone up early?
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  • #4,208
  • Jul 5, 2016 2:47am Jul 5, 2016 2:47am
Quoting C-12
Anyone up early? {image} {image}
Nice ..

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  • #4,209
  • Jul 5, 2016 2:54am Jul 5, 2016 2:54am
and GBPUSD M5

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  • #4,210
  • Jul 5, 2016 7:25am Jul 5, 2016 7:25am
Some great moves today. hope you guys have been catching some of this. Specifically UCAD and AU.
  • #4,211
  • Jul 5, 2016 7:26am Jul 5, 2016 7:26am
Managed to slip this one in before heading out for work... Look at the PA.
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  • #4,212
  • Jul 5, 2016 7:29am Jul 5, 2016 7:29am
Just got onto this. Some lunchtime PA...
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  • #4,213
  • Jul 5, 2016 7:52am Jul 5, 2016 7:52am
Quoting C-12
Some great moves today. hope you guys have been catching some of this. Specifically UCAD and AU.
Day trading for a beautiful, smart market, it's just +

All profitable trading!
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  • #4,214
  • Jul 5, 2016 10:09am Jul 5, 2016 10:09am
continued - pair EUR USD ..
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  • #4,215
  • Jul 5, 2016 11:01am Jul 5, 2016 11:01am
My word, EU did some pissing around today after the AM session.......

Got there in the end.
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  • #4,216
  • Jul 5, 2016 11:15am Jul 5, 2016 11:15am
Quoting vas-avdeev
continued - pair EUR USD .. {image}
Looks good to me.

Bit of a strange day. EU was always going to rollover (since all the other pairs had done against USD).... It was just a matter of finding the correct PA to get involved.
  • #4,217
  • Jul 5, 2016 12:25pm Jul 5, 2016 12:25pm
No trades for me today post July 4th partying. HeHe.
But looking at today's action price entered supply area and formed a small m5 demand area which held twice before breaking down with large engulfing candle. A fewl smaller engulfs south in hindsight worked out. These can work but one needs to be aware that until the last demand area has been taken out and evidence of supply comes in that they can fail. But that's what risk management is all about.
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  • #4,218
  • Jul 5, 2016 12:46pm Jul 5, 2016 12:46pm
Quoting Winston Reed
No trades for me today post July 4th partying. HeHe. But looking at today's action price entered supply area and formed a small m5 demand area which held twice before breaking down with large engulfing candle. A fewl smaller engulfs south in hindsight worked out. These can work but one needs to be aware that until the last demand area has been taken out and evidence of supply comes in that they can fail. But that's what risk management is all about. {image}
Yep, good analysis. Always a good idea to review the day's session (if you're a scalper or day trader).

Here's GU (a pair I've not touched for a while due to brexit)

So we started the day with a bear engulf on both daily and H4 and pretty much nothing in the way of solid demand.

You can see all the potential engulf entries in the direction on both M30 and M5.

I do recommend having some alternative pairs to scalp as you can trade in a more relaxed way and cherry pick the entries. My eyes sometimes glaze over when staring at the EU for so long, sometimes it's too easy to get into 'over analysis' mode and every LTF engulf can make you second guess the bigger picture.
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  • #4,219
  • Jul 5, 2016 12:56pm Jul 5, 2016 12:56pm
I would recommend picking either UCAD, GU or AU or all of them. NU is not bad either.

There's also UJ for something different but I'm not a big fan of the way it moves at times. It's good when it trends but can be an arse when things are ranging.
  • #4,220
  • Jul 5, 2016 1:44pm Jul 5, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting C-12
So the question there is, what is the DD tolerance and R % you're willing to accept and which timeframe you're comfortable entering and sticking a stop behind. For me it means finding something tight on a lower time frame. I like the PA on that M15 chart for entry but I'd have H1 or M30 in view in my 3 timeframe stack. I couldn't leave a stop behind this H4 zone anyway as it would lead to a poor risk reward ratio to target (which should be opposing H4 zone above).
Sure enough, it reached the H4 zone and reversed exactly on the pip.

PA was hardly spectacular but the arrival was late in the day.
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