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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #301
  • Jul 4, 2016 11:31am Jul 4, 2016 11:31am
The daily trades will be taken mostly during early hours (my time), i.e. pre London open.

I advise following the stats under the "Trade Report" Tab, rather than just looking at the % growth.

Like all my other strategies & methods, the Win Rate will always be high. Since this is a risky test, I will be taking trades that have probabilities starting from 80% rather than 90+%. This will allow more trades & faster yet riskier results. So expect the profitability % to remain somewhere between 80 & 90%

You'll notice there are no SLs used on any of the trades.
For this test no SL will be used. The trades will either be closed at the preset TP or when the setup is invalidated.
Since the EA will only be functioning at specific times, if the trade gets invalidated during a time in which the EA isn't supposed to be working, the trade will have to wait till the first opportunity in which the EA opens for trading.
  • #302
  • Jul 4, 2016 11:44am Jul 4, 2016 11:44am
As I mentioned earlier, this is a high risk Test, meaning the DD will most likely be high. I don't have any Max DD% number in mind that I'm not allowing myself to exceed. As long the account is not margin called, the test is still in play.

I went for the 1:200 leverage option rather than 1:500. I believe 1:200 is high enough by itself & more reasonable logic wise, but I might as well have went for 1:500, but I said I'd rather not allow the account to blow up too fast (if it is going to)
  • #303
  • Edited 1:25pm Jul 4, 2016 11:50am | Edited 1:25pm
Lastly, I'd like to kindly ask you to limit the question related to the TE to this trading Journal.
If you have any question please post here & don't send it to my inbox.

Your question may be helpful for others, and I'll be answering it once for all to see rather than 100 different times individually.

I apologize in advance if I don't answer a PM that have been already answered here.

Best,
Jay
  • #304
  • Jul 5, 2016 6:24am Jul 5, 2016 6:24am
amazing, simply amazing
  • #305
  • Jul 5, 2016 6:51am Jul 5, 2016 6:51am
Quoting FX-Jay
As I mentioned earlier, this is a high risk Test, meaning the DD will most likely be high. I don't have any Max DD% number in mind that I'm not allowing myself to exceed. As long the account is not margin called, the test is still in play. I went for the 1:200 leverage option rather than 1:500. I believe 1:200 is high enough by itself & more reasonable logic wise, but I might as well have went for 1:500, but I said I'd rather not allow the account to blow up too fast (if it is going to)
I have my first question.. again haha. I am asuming you are not talking about position leverage here, but about broker leverage. What is the point if I may ask , to limit yourself to that leverage, do you have a good reason? Apart from implying higher margin requirements for the same strategy and positions, I don't see any other change. Especially if the account is a demo so there would be no actual leverage restriction as the account grows. I am just wondering.. Thanks Jay.
  • #306
  • Jul 5, 2016 6:57am Jul 5, 2016 6:57am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} For this trend trading system, if I say the probability is 90%, I mean that there is a 90% chance that the target will be hit before the setup being invalidated. For the TZ system, if I say the probability is 90%, I mean that there is a 90% chance that the target will be hit before H (H being the number of bars / time) {quote} The 1.1635 is till as valid as the day I first posted it. If you check back my posts you'll see that even though I maintained a firm opinion about my target, I was warning about some retracements at some times. I do...
I understand a little bit more now I guess . So - you divide signals by their target price and probability, but they are all on the same timeframe, meaning that you do not take longer vs shorter frame signals? Would you stop playing the eurusd long if a high probability down target is born now. Would you exit at market, is it even a realsitic scenario in your system. Good luck
  • #307
  • Jul 5, 2016 9:29am Jul 5, 2016 9:29am
Quoting feline207
{quote} I have my first question.. again haha. I am asuming you are not talking about position leverage here, but about broker leverage. What is the point if I may ask , to limit yourself to that leverage, do you have a good reason? Apart from implying higher margin requirements for the same strategy and positions, I don't see any other change. Especially if the account is a demo so there would be no actual leverage restriction as the account grows. I am just wondering.. Thanks Jay.
Correct, I'm talking about the account/broker leverage.
Given that this is a high risk test, and there will be no calculated risk limits, having a lower leverage will be the thing that will hold me from going crazy with the volumes. Please note that I'm not implying in any way that 1:200 is not a high leverage. On my real main account my max leverage is 1:10.
However, for the sake of this test, I believe that 1:200 will be better than 1:500
  • #308
  • Jul 5, 2016 9:35am Jul 5, 2016 9:35am
Quoting feline207
{quote} I understand a little bit more now I guess . So - you divide signals by their target price and probability, but they are all on the same timeframe, meaning that you do not take longer vs shorter frame signals? Would you stop playing the eurusd long if a high probability down target is born now. Would you exit at market, is it even a realsitic scenario in your system. Good luck
Yep, I'm sticking to the Daily TF only when finding my setups. Again, mainly since I'm not having lots of screen time to trade lower TFs & other methods.
As for the EU trade, usually by the time a high probability trades shows up opposing the 1st setup, the 1st setup would have been already invalidated (not a rule though).
But, if by any chance I will get an opposing setup while the 1st is still valid, yeah I won't mind taking both sides of the trade.
  • #309
  • Jul 5, 2016 9:55am Jul 5, 2016 9:55am
As you can see from the TE, there are lots of open orders that require NZD strength.

Expect a pop in NZD to happen out of no where
  • #310
  • Jul 6, 2016 10:35am Jul 6, 2016 10:35am
Quoting FX-Jay
Expecting a big down move in both USDJPY & USDCHF during next week. You'll see USDJPY below 101 again very soon
Done with USDJPY it went well below 101

As for USDCHF, haven't seen any significant down move yet, seems the swiss central bank if managing to do a good job so far. Would love to see how much longer they'll mange to hold it.
  • #311
  • Jul 7, 2016 10:56am Jul 7, 2016 10:56am
Quoting FX-Jay
As you can see from the TE, there are lots of open orders that require NZD strength. Expect a pop in NZD to happen out of no where
Yep a pop out of nowhere

As far as I know there was no news coming out on NZD today, yet NZD is the strongest against all other majors, weird , no?

What needs to happen has to happen
  • #312
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:00am Jul 7, 2016 11:00am
I see lots of positions on my TE that require GBP weakness.

Unlike NZD, the drop in GBP won't be out of "no where", and won't feel weird. There are plenty of Brexit related news that can 'cause' the drop.

Just sayin
  • #313
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:08am Jul 7, 2016 11:08am
Couldn't help but notice that yesterday around this time when I checked my journal it said it had 91,333 views; now, 24 hours later it shows 91,927 views.

600 views in 24 hours, and all I made was one post mentioning that USDJPY went below 101?

Just wondering who are all these lurkers and what exactly are they doing around here when there's no real activity going on
  • #314
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:12am Jul 7, 2016 11:12am
well, how many subscribers to the thread do you have?
  • #315
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:13am Jul 7, 2016 11:13am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Yep a pop out of nowhere As far as I know there was no news coming out on NZD today, yet NZD is the strongest against all other majors, weird , no? What needs to happen has to happen
Keep in mind that once once NZD finishes its up move, it'll be ready for a nice big dive to the downside. I'll keep you posted on when is that going to happen, but I have reasons to believe that we won't be waiting too much for that.
  • #316
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:19am Jul 7, 2016 11:19am
Quoting vadimg
well, how many subscribers to the thread do you have?
I have no clue, but I thought they weren't much given the small amount of interaction that happens around here.
Seems I'm mistaken, or maybe crowds are starting to gather to see the account explode one day
  • #317
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:24am Jul 7, 2016 11:24am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote}As for USDCHF, haven't seen any significant down move yet, seems the swiss central bank if managing to do a good job so far. Would love to see how much longer they'll mange to hold it.
The longer the wait, the harder the fall!
Waiting patiently
  • #318
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:30am Jul 7, 2016 11:30am
There are a lot of viewers cause your trading concept, being different from all that we have in FF matters a lot. We maybe not interact, but we are avid to read your posts.
  • #319
  • Jul 7, 2016 11:38am Jul 7, 2016 11:38am
Quoting kornrogers
There are a lot of viewers cause your trading concept, being different from all that we have in FF matters a lot. We maybe not interact, but we are avid to read your posts.
I really appreciate that. Knowing that someone is benefiting from what I have to say & knowing that there will always be someone that will benefit me with his/her ideas is what keeps me in this community.

I may not post as much as most of the other influential members, but I always do my best to say out what I believe may be useful

Hope that as time passes I still live up to the expectations
  • #320
  • Jul 11, 2016 3:31am Jul 11, 2016 3:31am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I really appreciate that. Knowing that someone is benefiting from what I have to say & knowing that there will always be someone that will benefit me with his/her ideas is what keeps me in this community. I may not post as much as most of the other influential members, but I always do my best to say out what I believe may be useful Hope that as time passes I still live up to the expectations
Jay, in your opinion, entering always at X ammount of pips to target- is it a too rigid? What would be a better option to take into account different volatility in the market. I would love to hear more about how you optimize an entry and also how to avoid getting into a larger dd/losses. Is closing a trade when reverse signal occurs enough to protect the account, are the opposing targets influencing each other in some way. Could this waybe applied to any strategy in forex?
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