thanks jay well did gamble on the gbp/jpy but did make 1500 p live but my broker AXIS did stuff me up was able only on 0.05 grrrrrrrr do we expect the GBP lower or will recover
thanks
thanks
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Dislikedthanks jay well did gamble on the gbp/jpy but did make 1500 p live but my broker AXIS did stuff me up was able only on 0.05 grrrrrrrr do we expect the GBP lower or will recover thanksIgnored
DislikedI was abstaining from giving any trade recommendations before the Brexit vote was over in order to to encourage anyone to enter the market during an extremely volatile & uncertain period. Now that the Brexit speculation is over, I'll give out some medium term high probability trades that I have: * AUDCAD below 0.9350 * AUDCHF below 0.7000 * USDCHF below 0.9500 & of course the long awaited 1.1635 on EURUSDIgnored
Disliked{quote} do you have invalidation criteria or time projection for your lelels. What is mid-term by your standarts? Surely eurusd will hit 1.1635 someday, we can so much confidently say it will go to 1.20-30-40. do you attach time period to those targets or you wait for development further? Thanks.Ignored
Disliked{quote} If you're interested in some numbers, since I shifted to this particular (non-day trading) method in the beginning of 2016, I've had (as of date) 159 distinct tradable setups out of which 156 were profitable & 3 non-profitable. The average holding time per setup is 8 days & the longest being so far 118 days (almost 4 months).Ignored
DislikedI was abstaining from giving any trade recommendations before the Brexit vote was over in order to to encourage anyone to enter the market during an extremely volatile & uncertain period. Now that the Brexit speculation is over, I'll give out some medium term high probability trades that I have: * AUDCAD below 0.9350 * AUDCHF below 0.7000 * USDCHF below 0.9500 & of course the long awaited 1.1635 on EURUSDIgnored
Disliked{quote} Yep as I've mentioned before, invalidation criteria include trend reversal & opposing signals (which won't happen unless the trend changes, since trend direction is a component in getting the signal). Concerning time projections for these particular calls & the setups I shared as of the beginning of 2016 (medium term trend trades vs. short term anti-trend trades): I don't have any set limit, but given that I am using a combination of Daily & Weekly TFs in doing my analysis, I project the holding time to be anywhere between 1 day & 2 quarter...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Now that 1.38 is cleared, I don't have any expectations on GBP. Wouldn't recommend trading it before all the dust is cleared.Ignored
Disliked{quote}Do you use leverage, cause I see you are holding pretty long-term and could suffer some ddIgnored
Disliked{quote}what happens if dd gets extremely large, but target isnt invalidated, would you take additional measures to get out of such trade, or liquidate part of position etc.Ignored
Disliked{quote} And a very important question that I am curiosu about - as I see your trade close time could be anywhere from hours to many days ( much more green concentrated in the earlier hours/days) , so - are those the same strategy trades or there is a difference for the different holding periods.Ignored
Disliked{quote. Meaning - do you arrive with the exact same proccess to those targets , doesnt matter if they are satistfied in 1 hour or 50 days? So you just get a good target, then wait, no matter how long it will take? So it is basically the same analysis strategy, but the time to strike is widely variable and cannot be estimated well?Ignored
Disliked{quote} The above visual representation is for the same strategy that I've been using since the beginning of 2016. I've set a separate account that just tracks this strategy since on my main account I sometimes take different trades that will cause disturbances to the statistics, and won't allow me to be able to accurately study the progress of this strategy. {quote} 100% correct. So basically all trades you see on that graph are for the same strategy & have been evaluated (pre-entry) in the same exact way whether they were closed in 1 day...Ignored
DislikedWhat I dont get from your last sentence - how can the probability be independent on BOTH entry and exit. How is that even possible, when an edge is actually making more positive pips from open to close of trade.Ignored
DislikedSo yes, open and close prices could not be that important by themself, but open vs. close of trade at least must be very important. And given the fact that your close is set at a target price and not dynamical, then the only floating point is the entry(open), but the entry vs exit. still have impact on the edge/performance/probabiltiy/whatever.Ignored
DislikedAnd like mentioning the timing of trades. Doesnt timing also include pricing? Because price-time are simultaneously evolving. Getting a price means getting the time that price is available and vice versa.Ignored
DislikedI will try to put it in other words - Suppose that whenever you realize there is a target born, you immediately place order in the same direction to reach the target, and you also do only one entry per target (no reaveraging entry price) . Would your edge still remain intact then?Ignored
Dislikedof course it doesnt make much sense, because who wouldn't want to maximize profits vs minimize risk as much as possible. But if you need to optimize the entry point and cannot depend on random entry, it still depends on entry price.
I am asking all this because I have very good targets, however I find it difficult to know the deviation before the strike (even a rough approximation is nothing but a guess). However, I need to be able to take as much as possible from a move. Entering for 20 pips is not the same as...Ignored
DislikedThe only filtering I do at the moment is based on how high the probability of the setup is. Im filtering anything below 90%. But after getting done with the optimization, Im sure I will start filtering trades to reduce additional unwanted DD.Ignored
DislikedDo you believe that deviation from target price does not change in any way the probability for the target price. If probability is independent of time nad price, than what does it depend on, is it probability at all?Ignored
DislikedIf you remember some of eurusdds postings, he said that probability is nothing without time attached to it. X% what, when? So I do not understand - if you have 90% probability for a target in your strategy, what do those 90% represent? Because every price is recurrent at some point in the future. If the probability is for the price being recurrent, then it is 100% for infinite time.Ignored
DislikedAnother thing that gets me very curious - 1.1635 is price that hasnt been used for a long time and you said that whenever an opposite signal occurs, it will invalidate the previous. Does that mean that since 1.1635 was last printed, you havent had another signal for a short eurusd so you are just trying to long till that target is hit. Or was it when the market last printed 1.1635 that you got your target or you got it later.Ignored
DislikedExpecting a big down move in both USDJPY & USDCHF during next week. You'll see USDJPY below 101 again very soonIgnored