C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

Quoting C-12

Disliked

{quote} I know it can be a tricky to grasp as engulfs occur in both direction, also you don't always know which one to take. The most most important thing is having confidence in the HTF direction of the market. In this case, based on H4 alone, you can see that the mid supply zone in blue was in invalidated (although not yet removed) by the PA highlighted in Orange. If that blue Sup was going to hold, price shouldn't have returned to it so abruptly and created a new H4 demand with engulf. At this point you can drop down to H1/M30 or even M15 to...

Ignored

Quoting Mong00se

Disliked

Or you could have something like this on a big monitor ​ {image}

Ignored

Quoting jack411

Disliked

{quote} One part I don't remember about s/d - could you explain invalidate versus removing (supply in this case as mentioned above.) so price action had several bull candles showing demand that went right back up to the blue middle supply area - this invalidated it? What would have removed it? If more bull candles blew right through it without pausing at all?

Ignored

Quoting Mong00se

Disliked

Or you could have something like this on a big monitor ​ {image}

Ignored

Quoting C-12

Disliked

And here's the reason you really have to have D1 on display. I've seen this time and time again where price will tap the D1 zone to the pip (and will confuse the hell out of lower TF traders). {image}

Ignored

Quoting C-12

Disliked

For me the ideal scalp setup would look like this: 6 monitors with 6 individual pairs showing Daily/H4 + execution time frame. USDX, EU, GU, UCAD, NU, AU. I'd really like this since you wouldn't have to rely on M5 so much for setups. You can cherry pick some more reliable M30/M15 PA across the majors rather than just EU. I think it's much better to have a wide field of view on the execution chart... I really have no idea how Ken used to scalp within those mini windows back in the day. USDX, EU, GU, UCAD, NU, AU. {image}

Ignored

Quoting jack411

Disliked

{quote} here's where things get sketchy for me - are you looking to get short at that point on the 30 min? The major trend was down on the higher tf, but price starting making higher lows and higher highs after that huge move down. To me, that signals a reversal, at least in the short term. But supply is still up top on the higher timeframes, so I guess you still wanna get short at where price is currently at on the 30 min? I likely would have passed altogether because of the demand directly below on the 30 min. But what would you have done?

Ignored

Quoting jack411

Disliked

{quote} whats that move look like on lower timeframe? Did it form a double bottom?

Ignored

Quoting C-12

Disliked

{quote} I wouldn't want to be short unless we get something really solid like a H4 south engulf to confirm we're heading lower (there's no need to rush into these things). At the moment all higher TF PA on this pair is heading up but this isn't a place to get long either (due to that M30 supply). Best to wait for PA on H4 to confirm the direction then get down to a lower to get involved with the direction. If we are going to reverse lower then there's not much in the way of demand either (it's compressed). So we don't want to make predictions...

Ignored

Quoting C-12

Disliked

{quote} H1 PA, Notice price reversed off the D1 zone to the pip but nothing on H1.. in fact, a decent looking H1 demand was taken out. Oddly enough we got another to the pip reversal off a H1 zone that was created off the reversal. It's good to have view of a range of TF's. {image}

Ignored

Quoting jack411

Disliked

{quote} Ok, so those supply areas on the daily and 4h that haven't been reached yet, youre going to look at how price approaches those areas before getting short? A strong move up and blows through, then you continue waiting? The daily and 4hr are more significant than the 30 min. So that supply area is stronger. You want to wait for a retrace or a supply area to form on the 30min after touching those daily and 4hr supply areas, then you would get short?

Ignored

Quoting C-12

Disliked

{quote} I'm not thinking this far ahead at this stage. I'll come to the screen tomorrow AM with an open mind. Will see what the overnight action did, what the higher TF PA and location looks like and then watch for fresh lower TF PA to get me involved if there's a setup of interest. I'm rubbish at making calls so prefer to let the market tell me which way it's going and I'll try and follow it.

Ignored

Quoting Winston Reed

Disliked

​I don't enter on H1 PA. I like entry on the 5 minute. But the process is no different. Many are obsessed with drawing "perfect" rectangles identifying supply and demand zones. Oddly enough I find the exactness of the rectangles to be minor. More importantly is the PA. What is the PA? I like the engulfings that create new supply or demand. You can trade the engulf or the retrace or both. Each one has advantages and disadvantages. Lower time frame engulfs provide tighter stops and yes more stop outs but careful money management will win out....

Ignored

Quoting C-12

Disliked

The best entries tend to be a pullback and then an engulf, otherwise known as a rally base drop or drop base rally (in old Sam Seiden terms.) Engulfs found during the middle of the move (RBR or DBR) can work too but you have to handle them with care. You need liquidity for these to work out. I get burned the most with these if price runs out of steam when I enter or can flip flop around. As for UCAD I was waiting with hawk eyes for price to pull back to get a short entry. As soon as I got the engulf then I pounced onto it with a stop behind the...

Ignored