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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,141
  • Jun 30, 2016 1:06pm Jun 30, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting vas-avdeev
{quote} Maybe a hole in the quotations. And about the study I have been watching and trying ever since when Ace Gazette was not commercial. But constantly selling the advisers that other strategies, but now has decided to come to grips with the levels of supply and demand. Fresh trade EURUSD .. {image}
Looks good to me and daily PA, so hopefully lower.

I'm out of most scalps apart from the top one.

Make out what you can from these entries.

Traded without stop to see what happened and no losses. I can see the positives and risks of trading like this but I was 99% certain we were heading down.
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  • #4,142
  • Jun 30, 2016 2:36pm Jun 30, 2016 2:36pm
Enough for today, it's time to sleep. Thank you all for your attention.
C-12 thanks for the chat
* sorry I write through translator

A fresh schedule of the battlefield))
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  • #4,143
  • Jun 30, 2016 3:00pm Jun 30, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting vas-avdeev
Enough for today, it's time to sleep. Thank you all for your attention. C-12 thanks for the chat * sorry I write through translator A fresh schedule of the battlefield)) {image}
Excellent.
  • #4,144
  • Jun 30, 2016 9:20pm Jun 30, 2016 9:20pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Hi Shunfeng, there's really not much to see. Most (if not all) of my losers come from trades like these. Sometimes I take an engulf that's premature or just not that solid but often with the right direction and then price comes back and takes me out. It can be frustrating if you get a string of these but I'm really ok with small losses. At the end of the day I'd like to have the account size and confidence to trade without a stop. My experience with this is I can do really well but then have a crazy day where things don't work out and I...
Hi, C-12!

Thanks for your reply!

I put some notes with my some of my personal opinions on your chart showing with 2 losses. May it could help a little bit.

What I would like to add is:

1 Before I also traded a lot the "low level" engulfings, and after many times of SLs, I begin to realise it is usually a trap rather than an opportunity. Maybe sometimes it mutates to be valid, but the winning probability is not interesting and attractive to me anymore.

2 "sell high buy low" is very right, this is the only thing I found useful (especially in a trend)

Hoping we can improve our trading performance together!


yours,

shunfengcn
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The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #4,145
  • Edited 10:04pm Jun 30, 2016 9:33pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Looks good to me and daily PA, so hopefully lower. I'm out of most scalps apart from the top one. Make out what you can from these entries. Traded without stop to see what happened and no losses. I can see the positives and risks of trading like this but I was 99% certain we were heading down. {image}
Dear C-12,

In your chart I see that many of your trades seem do not have an initial SL when you entered. Did you mean that when you opened your position, you did not have an immediate small SL with your position? (If yes, how often did you trade in this way, have you got caught sometimes with a huge loss?) Also, if this is the case, how did you calculate your position size for an entry?


Quote
At the end of the day I'd like to have the account size and confidence to trade without a stop. My experience with this is I can do really well but then have a crazy day where things don't work out and I end up taking a massive loss on the account...


Some my own personal opinions (maybe it does not apply to your situation at all, sorry for that if it doesn't):

As experienced traders, I think we both know that
even if the trading record shows only the profits and losses with a closed position (without showing the actually drawdown during one trade, which means someone could hold a losing trade desperately until it reverses and then close it, in his trading record, it shows that it is a trade with small losss, or even a trade some profit, but the truth is that the max floating loss in his account was once very very big, and this kind of trading record is very UNHEALTHY it means that one day sooner or later one bad trade could eliminate this account and put it into end). Today more and more analysis on trading performance has taken this into consideration.

IMO, holding a floating losing trade and expecting it to reverse with a big floating loss is fundermentally wrong. The reason for which people fall into this fallacy is that they want to win, not lose. This is the most fundermental thing: trading is a business to learn how to lose, not how to win. No accepting loss, No money collected in the long run.
IMO, one of the most important true edges of any trader lies majorly in the entry set-up. If, after your entry you are stopped out soon, sometimes very soon, but then it proves that you were in the righ side, then it simply means your entry is not valid, work hard to find/wait for a valid one, do not over-trade, do not trade too hastily, that is all. People has this ideas that if I am in the right direction, then I should make money, then they do not have a SL. Trading is above all a Business of Risk Management and a trader's job is to manage the risks, not the speculation of the “right” direction. Don't get this wrong. To be honest, the chart below shows that the trader with these trades is not someone with a good risk management skill, even if his speculation of the direction was "right" or "99% sure".

Holding a losing trade for a long time with expectations to reverse or open a position without SL... IMO, this is a very bad psychological habit and cound detroy and ruin any account and trader in the long run.



yours,
shunfengcn
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The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #4,146
  • Edited 3:33am Jul 1, 2016 2:58am | Edited 3:33am
Quoting shunfeng
{quote} Dear C-12, In your chart I see that many of your trades seem do not have an initial SL when you entered. Did you mean that when you opened your position, you did not have an immediate small SL with your position?
Hey Shunfeng, thanks for detailed response and you are absolutely 100% correct with the analysis.

Yesterday I was trying a test for lossless trading as we had a discussion about it before yesterday's session about my low win rate. Also I was trading from work, sometimes on the mobile phone so I had to keep leaving the charts and coming back. some of it is quite scruffy work.

My usual method (SL behind M5 PA) as you've highlighted would have cost me a lot of pips, loads of mini losses and BE before I got the correct entry.

But think of it another way. If this account was 50,000 rather than 5,000 then the mental stop can go behind the H1 PA then can trade with a wider stop and still keep within a low risk % and earn a good daily amount of profit. In yesterday's example the risk of a large loss could have occurred if I was wrong on direction but only if the overall risk was too high for account size (which it was).

So it's all relative to account size and total risk %. For a small account, in order for me to make a chance of a reasonable daily return (safely) then I have to accept lots of small losses or break evens. The question is, is M5 PA strong enough to be basing a stop behind? In my experience I can mostly produce a win rate of 50% with mostly a 2:1 or 3:1 total RR but yes, sometimes it's frustrating... Especially if you've got higher TF PA on side.

Is this the best way to trade (lots of small losses)? Probably not but I've been doing this for a years.
  • #4,147
  • Jul 1, 2016 7:25am Jul 1, 2016 7:25am
Anyway, some straight forward engulfing style entries.

EU started the day with a fresh H1 engulf (demand) so buys were on the menu.
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  • #4,148
  • Jul 1, 2016 7:38am Jul 1, 2016 7:38am
Kiwi PA
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  • #4,149
  • Jul 1, 2016 8:03am Jul 1, 2016 8:03am
Quoting C-12
Kiwi PA {image}
Can you tell me how to avoid false entries like the ones in the red cycles?
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  • #4,150
  • Jul 1, 2016 8:19am Jul 1, 2016 8:19am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} Can you tell me how to avoid false entries like the ones in the red cycles? {image}
I'm back at work at the moment but fire up Daily, H4 and M30 and we can have a look and see how these tie in with this PA.
  • #4,151
  • Jul 1, 2016 11:44am Jul 1, 2016 11:44am
Here we go, I wish I was watching this as it's very clear on the higher TF in hindsight.

It all starts with a bullish H4 engulf that was successfully retested.

D1 engulf was then established.

It initially looked like price may roll over aver reaching that H4/H1 supply but then fresh demand came in. At that point it was buys all the way.

All the highlighted engulfs on the M15 came after the bullish M4 PA.

So I agree, if you blindly take M15 engulfs then you will surely get into trouble but following higher timeframe PA then will work out as nice entries.
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  • #4,152
  • Edited 12:34pm Jul 1, 2016 12:24pm | Edited 12:34pm
So comparing H1 and M15

You can see the green arrow at the same location. Absolutely no reason to be taking any sell engulfs (As you'd be selling directly into H1 demand zones within an uptrend).

It's worth analysing charts in this way as this appears to be the way the market moves.

Once you can see it, you can trade it. Same goes for me, every session is a learning experience.

Sometimes I look back on some of the trend engulfs I've taken and can see they've run 20 or 30:1 and I'm out with a 2:1 ...
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  • #4,153
  • Jul 1, 2016 4:11pm Jul 1, 2016 4:11pm
Hello!
The whole day went on business, and before closing decided to throw the bait,
but still a little bit of profit and the market closed))
Great weekend to everyone!

Fresh trade ..
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  • #4,154
  • Jul 1, 2016 10:08pm Jul 1, 2016 10:08pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Hey Shunfeng, thanks for detailed response and you are absolutely 100% correct with the analysis. Yesterday I was trying a test for lossless trading as we had a discussion about it before yesterday's session about my low win rate. Also I was trading from work, sometimes on the mobile phone so I had to keep leaving the charts and coming back. some of it is quite scruffy work. My usual method (SL behind M5 PA) as you've highlighted would have cost me a lot of pips, loads of mini losses and BE before I got the correct entry. But think of...
Dear C-12,

Thanks for your reply!

I see what you mean with your example of 50 000 vs. 5 000 accounts.

Please continue with your test. All things in trading could be argued with, nothing is physical law. Just find what suits you the best and what works for you, others opinions and suggestions are only for consideration elements, not decision-making guidance.

Sorry for my straightforwardness and somewhat agressive words in my last post. (when I re-read what I have posted yesterday, I found I was a little bit too critical, sorry for my tone if you felt it.)

yours,
shunfengcn
The candle pattern is the signal, the inevitability behind it is the key.
  • #4,155
  • Jul 2, 2016 5:52am Jul 2, 2016 5:52am
Quoting C-12
So comparing H1 and M15 You can see the green arrow at the same location. Absolutely no reason to be taking any sell engulfs (As you'd be selling directly into H1 demand zones within an uptrend). It's worth analysing charts in this way as this appears to be the way the market moves. Once you can see it, you can trade it. Same goes for me, every session is a learning experience. Sometimes I look back on some of the trend engulfs I've taken and can see they've run 20 or 30:1 and I'm out with a 2:1 ... {image}
Hi C12,
thx for your detailed answer. Unfortunately there are still some uncertainties left. Like you showed there must be some HTF PA in order to switch to the LTF engulfing/PA trading. So far so good. But now to avoid bigger DD you must have some kind of reference point when you know it's time to enter with LTF PA or in your trade examples the retracment will end and price will continue to go up. For example your first arrow of your ss attached in post 4149. There was some kind of location when price touched the 1 hr demand zone. That's a reference point for me even the demand zone was big and the PA was nothing special (bit of sellers exhaution shown by the bigger red bar and a bullish inside bar...). When I would have waited for a trading signal I would have known that I must wait till price goes down to the demand zone and I would have ignored the two bull engulfings which showed up early in the 15m retracement.
The second arrow marks a retest of the 30m demand zone. Well that's easy to see but what was your reference point regarding the last 3 arrows or on other words how do you know price will turn now? I hope you know what I'm refering to.
  • #4,156
  • Jul 2, 2016 6:57am Jul 2, 2016 6:57am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} Hi C12, thx for your detailed answer. Unfortunately there are still some uncertainties left. Like you showed there must be some HTF PA in order to switch to the LTF engulfing/PA trading. So far so good. But now to avoid bigger DD you must have some kind of reference point when you know it's time to enter with LTF PA or in your trade examples the retracment will end and price will continue to go up. For example your first arrow of your ss attached in post 4149. There was some kind of location when price touched the 1 hr demand zone. That's...
I know it can be a tricky to grasp as engulfs occur in both direction, also you don't always know which one to take.

The most most important thing is having confidence in the HTF direction of the market. In this case, based on H4 alone, you can see that the mid supply zone in blue was in invalidated (although not yet removed) by the PA highlighted in Orange.

If that blue Sup was going to hold, price shouldn't have returned to it so abruptly and created a new H4 demand with engulf.

At this point you can drop down to H1/M30 or even M15 to find the entry. It could be engulf or retest. But at this point you're ignoring anything bearish that shows up (although it feels hard to do) on the lower TF's.

This is why I'm looking to pick up 6 x new monitors so I can stack the TF's side by side (H4/H1/M15) across the majors. Less need to keep flicking around as you need to be around.
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  • #4,157
  • Jul 2, 2016 7:03am Jul 2, 2016 7:03am
So the question there is, what is the DD tolerance and R % you're willing to accept and which timeframe you're comfortable entering and sticking a stop behind. For me it means finding something tight on a lower time frame.

I like the PA on that M15 chart for entry but I'd have H1 or M30 in view in my 3 timeframe stack.

I couldn't leave a stop behind this H4 zone anyway as it would lead to a poor risk reward ratio to target (which should be opposing H4 zone above).
  • #4,158
  • Jul 2, 2016 7:16am Jul 2, 2016 7:16am
I notice that Alfonso is using a Monthly / Weekly / Daily stack but using limit orders on daily zones.

I like what he's doing but my problem is the entries come around too rarely and I haven't got the patience to wait weeks for for a 3:1 RR.

You end up having to extend your search into less reliable murky stuff like indices or CFD's to find trades.

I think there's more than enough action just on the FX majors on H4/M1/M15 etc (if you're a day trader). The trades wrap up quickly and you can sleep soundly at night without having to hold anything overnight if you're not into that kind of thing.

Although I'd like to get away from just purely scalping EU as it often means forcing entries on M5. I see some great stuff on UCAD, NU and AU quite often so I think it's better to cherry pick... So.... More monitors it is.

Got my eye on this card atm

https://www.amazon.com/VisionTek-Rad...ct_top?ie=UTF8
  • #4,159
  • Jul 2, 2016 1:45pm Jul 2, 2016 1:45pm
Or you could have something like this on a big monitor ​

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  • #4,160
  • Jul 2, 2016 4:21pm Jul 2, 2016 4:21pm
Quoting Mong00se
Or you could have something like this on a big monitor ​ {image}
Hey Mong00se could you share this indicator please?
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