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MMLCv16

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Aug 13, 2016 9:16pm Jun 29, 2016 7:26am | Edited Aug 13, 2016 9:16pm
Purpose of this thread :
1-Key components of MMLC v16 for M30 swings broken down and explained in detail
2-Key components of beta version modified B2i broken down and explained in detail
3-Methodology of finding edges via Frequency Distribution and Probabilities
4-Continued research for continuous improvement

How do participate in this thread :
There are 3 requirements to participate in this thread. If you are unable to fulfill the requirements, please avoid participation. I intent to keep this thread clean, precise, short and to the point. Discussions should ideally involve hard data and statistics.
1-Reading of the MMLCv12 thread to get some idea of what is going on and what to expect. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=565169
2-Some idea of what B2i is. Read this thread from iDoubleStoch. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=496501
3-Ability to perform coding your own indicators. You will need this to generate data and statistics for analysis. I will not provide any code / indicator, and I recommend others not to share theirs on a public basis. Private basis, I wouldn't care.

This first post would be updated as we go along.


MMLCv16 Swing Construction
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...51#post9006351

The Concept of Balance and Purpose of Optimization
(main post) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post9021360
(basic explaination of getting L1O) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post9023214
(picture of L1O swing logic) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post9023459
(more in depth explaination of getting L1O) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post9027833
(sample MQL4 code logic) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...30#post9035330
(getting the zone levels) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post9050257

How to Trade Using Swings
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...86#post9057086

Modified B2i for MMLC
(part 1) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post9064872
(part 2) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post9065008
(part 3) http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post9082564
  • #2
  • Edited 7:42am Jun 29, 2016 7:29am | Edited 7:42am
MMLCv16 Swing Construction :

---------------------
1-Initial Data Points
Use the following moving standard indicator as a guide. I recommend to use the in built moving average 1st, then create the indicator from step 2 onwards to ensure the rest of the logic is correct.
a-LWMA High line = High + Linear Weighted Moving Average + Period 8 + Shift 1
b-LWMA Low line = Low + Linear Weighted Moving Average + Period 8 + Shift 1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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----------------------
2-Swing Line Logic
a-Downswing run = candle closes below LWMA High line
Ensure swing end point is always the lowest extreme before the next new upswing turn happens.
Mark and keep these LWMA High line data points, hide it later.

b-Downswing turn into upswing = candle closes above LWMA High line
Start of a new swing going up, tracking the highest extreme after it.
Mark and keep this turn point data point.

c-Upswing run = candle closes above LWMA Low line
Ensure swing end point is always the highest extreme before the next new downswing turn happens.
Mark and keep these LWMA Low line data points.

d-Upswing turn into downswing = candle closes below LWMA Low line
Start of a new swing going down, tracking the lowest extreme after it.
Mark and keep this turn point data point.

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---------------------------
3-Swing Classification
a-Use the same classification as from MMLCv12 here ( D-Stage 3 (final) : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post8579988 )
b-Remove the moving averages.
c-Hide the LWMA High line data points and LWMA Low line data points.

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  • #3
  • Jun 29, 2016 7:34am Jun 29, 2016 7:34am
nice , will tyr on my GBPJPY M30 chart. thx
Exits == most important part of your strategy
  • #4
  • Jun 29, 2016 7:37am Jun 29, 2016 7:37am
I will stop here and wait for sufficient people who are interested to code up the swing indicator, before moving on to the next step.

I would kinda want to repost this :

<from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...94#post8579994)
Ok, I will stop here and give this thread a rest until the following happens :

Someone else is able to follow the swing construction instructions and send it to me via PM for verification. Please do not share it here as it would defeat the overall purpose. I can still post whatever I wish to share, just that without this happening, it would be difficult to continue this thread. I've stated in the 1st post that the construction of the swing is foundational. Its not quite blackmail (haha) Admittedly, this is indeed the scientific ideal : replicate-able results from independent individuals.

The reason for construction of the swing is simple. It would facilitate gathering of statistics later. If you are the one who did the construction, then the rest gets easier for you. However, if you get the indicator from someone else, you would have a harder time in the later stages. Trust me on this, the kind of statistics I intend to look at is not for anyone who wants an easy job.

*sits and waits*
  • #5
  • Jun 29, 2016 7:38am Jun 29, 2016 7:38am
Quoting edmun1388
nice , will tyr on my GBPJPY M30 chart. thx
No problem. Just PM me when you are done
  • #6
  • Jul 1, 2016 12:24pm Jul 1, 2016 12:24pm
Hi,

You can find a printscreen with my fresh from factory indicator.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Grtz,

Tom
  • #7
  • Edited Jul 2, 2016 1:53am Jul 1, 2016 5:39pm | Edited Jul 2, 2016 1:53am
Quoting WannaLearn
Hi, You can find a printscreen with my fresh from factory indicator. {image} Grtz, Tom
Verified ok, although there is a little difference (look at the left), it is probably due to broker data difference. Not an issue.

FYI 3 people had sent in their interest and 2 verified ok so far. Ideally I am waiting for 5, so thats about 3 more.
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  • #8
  • Jul 4, 2016 5:51am Jul 4, 2016 5:51am
Update : 3rd person verified ok. Waiting ideally for 2 more for a total of 5. Otherwise I would start the next post (#2-Key components of beta version modified B2i broken down and explained in detail) from 9th July 2016, which is about 5-6 days from now.
  • #9
  • Jul 4, 2016 6:07am Jul 4, 2016 6:07am
The gann hilo indy willl provide a visual representation of the moving averages. Set it to gann hilo 8
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #10
  • Jul 9, 2016 3:48am Jul 9, 2016 3:48am
Quoting okehiedon
The gann hilo indy willl provide a visual representation of the moving averages. Set it to gann hilo 8
Thank you for the input, it might be helpful. But to maintain consistency in this thread, I would not explore your suggestion for the meantime. This is because what I would be looking at is much deeper.
  • #11
  • Edited 9:38am Jul 9, 2016 3:51am | Edited 9:38am
The Concept of Balance and Purpose of Optimization (part 1 of 2)

Before I go further about B2i, the Concept of Balance and Purpose of Optimization has to be understood and performed properly first.

Goals :
1-Perform a Optimization on Basic Swing Classification, reduce from 100% to 90%
2-Perform a Level 1 Optimization, which is dependent on Previous Swing
3-Verify the Level 1 Optimization lengths for the following :
a-DR(L1O) / UR(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
b-DJ(L1O) / UJ(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
c-DT(L1O) / UT(L1O) : reduce from 90% to 70%


I can't name who my trading mentors are, but one of them gave very good advice.
1-Always find a balance in the market; a good indicator that can read all market conditions is never extreme but balanced.

2-Look further for moments when this balance is affected and price must give a huge run or is forced into a particular direction e.g. Higher Timeframe context, news volatility, other related factors.

3-This is where and when the real edge exists, because now you know what are the pre-conditions and triggers for a trend pretty much in advanced.
In MMLCv12, one of our edges is when price tips to near the 100%-120% breakout zone area. So I decided to look further into what was explored in MMLCv12 :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post8583083
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post8583106
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http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post8585364
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How does one perform optimization? For the Basic Swing Classification that uses 100%, use the optimized 90%.
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But why does one perform optimization? One might or might not need to optimize further after the optimized 90% is in place. In this case, for Previous Swing to Current Swing sequences, its a yes to optimize. I would call this a Level 1 Optimization, which is dependent of what the Previous Swing is.
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I would only continue on part 2 of Optimization and later B2i after this section is cleared, that if anyone can understand and produce similar results as shown.
  • #12
  • Jul 9, 2016 2:17pm Jul 9, 2016 2:17pm
Frequency distribution for Basic Swing Classification (100%)

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Reults looking simular, other stats will be posted soon
  • #13
  • Jul 9, 2016 2:56pm Jul 9, 2016 2:56pm
Frequency distribution for Basic Swing Classification with optimization 90%


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Results again as expected => Same amount (almost) of retrace and trend
  • #14
  • Jul 9, 2016 9:01pm Jul 9, 2016 9:01pm
Quoting WannaLearn
Frequency distribution for Basic Swing Classification (100%) {image} Reults looking simular, other stats will be posted soon
Quoting WannaLearn
Frequency distribution for Basic Swing Classification with optimization 90% {image} Results again as expected => Same amount (almost) of retrace and trend
Verified ok. 1 down, 2 more to go.

1-Perform a Optimization on Basic Swing Classification, reduce from 100% to 90%
2-Perform a Level 1 Optimization, which is dependent on Previous Swing
3-Verify the Level 1 Optimization lengths for the following :
a-DR(L1O) / UR(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
b-DJ(L1O) / UJ(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
c-DT(L1O) / UT(L1O) : reduce from 90% to 70%
  • #15
  • Jul 10, 2016 5:26pm Jul 10, 2016 5:26pm
Hmm trying to make sure I understand here..
From my understanding there are 3 main "check points" to move on to the next part.

They are:
first - reduce the main swing lengths from 100% to 90%. This will lead to DR/DT and UR/UT probabilities to be the same when looking at all swings in the set

second - optimize the probabilities for the second swing based on the primary swing.

third - these probabilities are as follows:
a-DR(L1O) / UR(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
b-DJ(L1O) / UJ(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
c-DT(L1O) / UT(L1O) : reduce from 90% to 70%

Questions:
1. Is it even possible to complete the third part without completing the second part? These can kind of be seen as being done together no?
2. The optimization for these primary-secondary swing parts (second and third parts) will require reducing the swing lengths, but is the required shrinkage is unknown (and to be found via trial and error)?
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #16
  • Jul 10, 2016 5:42pm Jul 10, 2016 5:42pm
Quoting LiquidGenius
Hmm trying to make sure I understand here.. From my understanding there are 3 main "check points" to move on to the next part. They are:

first - reduce the main swing lengths from 100% to 90%.
This will lead to DR/DT and UR/UT probabilities to be the same when looking at all swings in the set
Yes

Quoting LiquidGenius
second - optimize the probabilities for the second swing based on the primary swing.
Yes

Quoting LiquidGenius
third - these probabilities are as follows:
a-DR(L1O) / UR(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
b-DJ(L1O) / UJ(L1O) : increase from 90% to 110%
c-DT(L1O) / UT(L1O) : reduce from 90% to 70% Questions:
Required shrinkage or required increases. That lead to balanced probabilities.

Quoting LiquidGenius
1. Is it even possible to complete the third part without completing the second part? These can kind of be seen as being done together no?
Yes these are in a sense done together. I split them up because of your 2nd question.

Quoting LiquidGenius
2. The optimization for these primary-secondary swing parts (second and third parts) will require reducing the swing lengths, but is the required shrinkage is unknown (and to be found via trial and error)?
... so that you guys didn't have to trial and error too long. You can, if you want, trial and error; and see if I am actually wrong!
  • #17
  • Jul 10, 2016 10:58pm Jul 10, 2016 10:58pm
Quoting Relativity
{quote} Verified ok, although there is a little difference (look at the left), it is probably due to broker data difference. Not an issue. FYI 3 people had sent in their interest and 2 verified ok so far. Ideally I am waiting for 5, so thats about 3 more. {image}
Really like where your heads at Relativity. Got my swing indicator complete.

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  • #18
  • Jul 11, 2016 12:13am Jul 11, 2016 12:13am
Here are some quick stats I gathered on the distribution of the swings. Here I am using the last 5000 bars on the 30 minute chart which account for 512 swings total. They look to be pretty similar to WannaLearn's stats.
Attached Image
  • #19
  • Jul 11, 2016 5:36am Jul 11, 2016 5:36am
I'm just struggling with the level 1 optimazation.

Can we say that level 1 is the same as basic, but each previous swing type can have a different basic optimazation value.

So this will mean that a basic optimazation from 90%, is the same as:
UR(L1O)=90%
UJ(L1O)=90%
UT(L1O)=90%
DR(L1O)=90%
DJ(L1O)=90%
DT(L1O)=90%
  • #20
  • Jul 11, 2016 7:15am Jul 11, 2016 7:15am
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Really like where your heads at Relativity. Got my swing indicator complete. {image}
Thank you and welcome to the party. It looks good. Verified ok.

Quoting Sis.yphus
Here are some quick stats I gathered on the distribution of the swings. Here I am using the last 5000 bars on the 30 minute chart which account for 512 swings total. They look to be pretty similar to WannaLearn's stats. {image}
These stats look like they use 100% and not the optimized 90%

No matter, I am sure you will catch on quickly what I am trying to do. The advantage of using swings like this really helps to cut out a lot noise and puts the focus into what really matters; how do we trade from point A to point B?
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