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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #4,081
  • Jun 27, 2016 7:01am Jun 27, 2016 7:01am
Quoting C-12
Back home. {image}
Nice to see you back C12... Hope you had a nice time there at Thailand
  • #4,082
  • Jun 27, 2016 8:04am Jun 27, 2016 8:04am
GBPUSD still holding................
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  • #4,083
  • Jun 27, 2016 8:05am Jun 27, 2016 8:05am
Quoting marc2014
GBPUSD still holding................ {image}
Woah, heavy duty sell.
  • #4,084
  • Jun 27, 2016 8:13am Jun 27, 2016 8:13am
Quoting tradeforlife
{quote} Nice to see you back C12... Hope you had a nice time there at Thailand
Had a great time. Will return for sure.

I'm on the buy side on EU. At the moment scalps but have to go out to get some shopping so will see what unfolds.

Should have pulled the plug on upper sell...oh well.. been a stonking day on the EU.
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  • #4,085
  • Jun 27, 2016 9:17am Jun 27, 2016 9:17am
Quoting C-12
Strategy is M30 zones n PA and M5 engulfs in direction with DX in sight. Not much more to it unfortunately. If someone can covert it to EA, please send it over.
I wonder how cool you answer these kind of requests.

Anyway I have a question. Since you changed or adapted your trading style how does your hit rate changed? Additionally I noticed that you increased your position size...are you more confident now?
  • #4,086
  • Jun 27, 2016 11:04am Jun 27, 2016 11:04am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} I wonder how cool you answer these kind of requests. Anyway I have a question. Since you changed or adapted your trading style how does your hit rate changed? Additionally I noticed that you increased your position size...are you more confident now?
Well I'm kind of experimenting a little.

Ken gave me some personal advice a while (for scalping only) that it wasn't always important to get the 2:1 or 3:1 risk reward or for the scalps or to look pretty on the chart. Another way is to collect rapid pips with a meaningful value even if it's only quick 6 or 8 pips.

So basically he advised me to try out a smash and grab approach to scalping and not get concerned if it's a premature evacuation. I tried it last week and a bit today found it's working very well.

Unfortunately the ego in me wants to hold on so I've been taking partial profits along the way which I don't think hasn't actually helps on the profit side.
  • #4,087
  • Jun 27, 2016 11:10am Jun 27, 2016 11:10am
Here's an example of smashing and grapping pips on GU (about 5 mins ago).

Nothing pretty to see here, just some random PA (engulf with higher TF) that shows up all day but hitting it with a bigger size.

So I've scalped the easy pips. Price can very easily come back and take out the stop or BE or it could run... The main thing is I'm out with the pips.

This style is quite easy to just rinse and repeat during a the session whenever the PA gives a setup.

Anyway, something worth testing if you're finding you can enter well but not making much headway on the profit side.
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  • #4,088
  • Jun 27, 2016 11:30am Jun 27, 2016 11:30am
Coming back to GU, some buy PA showed up. Again, another opportunity to scalp quick pips and not get married to a direction.

If you read through Romancing the Price thread. For the most part this is what Ken was basically doing (and probably still does a lot of).
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  • #4,089
  • Jun 27, 2016 11:32am Jun 27, 2016 11:32am
Quoting C-12
Here's an example of smashing and grapping pips on GU (about 5 mins ago). Nothing pretty to see here, just some random PA (engulf with higher TF) that shows up all day but hitting it with a bigger size. So I've scalped the easy pips. Price can very easily come back and take out the stop or BE or it could run... The main thing is I'm out with the pips. This style is quite easy to just rinse and repeat during a the session whenever the PA gives a setup. Anyway, something worth testing if you're finding you can enter well but not making much headway...
C-12,
great thread. I'm looking to get back into s/d trading while combining my scalping methods. It seems similar to what you're doing. I was practicing with charts a long time ago, but went back to strictly scalping. Could you take a look at these two charts and tell me if you think I drew my supply/demand levels correctly? Sometimes I see that you include the wick, other times, just the body of the candle. Is this personal preference or is there an exact science that you use? thanks again and thanks for the thread!

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  • #4,090
  • Jun 27, 2016 12:32pm Jun 27, 2016 12:32pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} C-12, great thread. I'm looking to get back into s/d trading while combining my scalping methods. It seems similar to what you're doing. I was practicing with charts a long time ago, but went back to strictly scalping. Could you take a look at these two charts and tell me if you think I drew my supply/demand levels correctly? Sometimes I see that you include the wick, other times, just the body of the candle. Is this personal preference or is there an exact science that you use? thanks again and thanks for the thread! {image} {image}
Hey, good to see you onboard with S&D.

To be honest I've been at this so long I don't really think too much about the actual structure of a single level these days but I'd say you've drawn them correctly... The H1 supply in the first chart is a little bit iffy (they can work but my mind filters those out as price has spent a fair bit of time there).

I more tend to look at how the levels / zones tie together across multiple time-frames and work from higher TF downwards to get a full picture of the action to get me in the direction of the trade.

Will try and provide some examples but you can surely scalp heavy with just SD and PA.
  • #4,091
  • Jun 27, 2016 12:40pm Jun 27, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Hey, good to see you onboard with S&D. To be honest I've been at this so long I don't really think too much about the actual structure of a single level these days but I'd say you've drawn them correctly... The H1 supply in the first chart is a little bit iffy (they can work but my mind filters those out as price has spent a fair bit of time there). I more tend to look at how the levels / zones tie together across multiple time-frames and work from higher TF downwards to get a full picture of the action to get me in the direction of the...

thanks for the reply! I guess what I'm mostly looking for is - what invalidates a level in your eyes?
  • #4,092
  • Jun 27, 2016 12:45pm Jun 27, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} thanks for the reply! I guess what I'm mostly looking for is - what invalidates a level in your eyes?
To be honest, I very rarely zone trade these days.

I find they break more often than not (especially lower timeframes). I mostly always want PA and price to tell me which way it is going, using higher timeframe action and zones to give me the heads up.

Zone trade = waiting for price to reach the SD zone and taking a reversal entry / with or without PA.

What I do is look at H4 and say M30 (but I sometimes cycle timeframes).

In this example, both trades are showing me the direction. I'm waiting for fresh PA (supply / demand to form) for an entry.

See these scalp setups I just took on EU and UCAD. H4 is giving me the direction with M30 and M5 as entries.
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  • #4,093
  • Jun 27, 2016 12:52pm Jun 27, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} To be honest, I very rarely zone trade these days. I find they break more often than not (especially lower timeframes). I mostly always want PA and price to tell me which way it is going, using higher timeframe action and zones to give me the heads up. Zone trade = waiting for price to reach the SD zone and taking a reversal entry / with or without PA. What I do is look at H4 and say M30 (but I sometimes cycle timeframes). In this example, both trades are showing me the direction. I'm waiting for fresh PA (supply / demand to form) for an...

ok,
so you're waiting for a reversal to form on the smaller timeframe chart, in the direction of the major trend occurring on the higher timeframe chart, correct? And you use a s/d type setup for entry?
  • #4,094
  • Jun 27, 2016 12:59pm Jun 27, 2016 12:59pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} ok, so you're waiting for a reversal to form on the smaller timeframe chart, in the direction of the major trend occurring on the higher timeframe chart, correct? And you use a s/d type setup for entry?
Yeah that's it really. I enter as the supply or demand forms. If you look at the EU entry above on the M30 side, you can see that a new supply zone will print so I wanted to sell.

I just entered as it formed (as H4 was telling me to sell).

However, upon the retest it may actually fail to hold. Fresh zones are best (the moment of formation).

It may seem a bit odd that my entries are seemingly from thin air at first but it's the PA that creates the fresh zones.
  • #4,095
  • Jun 27, 2016 1:18pm Jun 27, 2016 1:18pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yeah that's it really. I enter as the supply or demand forms. If you look at the EU entry above on the M30 side, you can see that a new supply zone will print so I wanted to sell. I just entered as it formed (as H4 was telling me to sell). However, upon the retest it may actually fail to hold. Fresh zones are best (the moment of formation). It may seem a bit odd that my entries are seemingly from thin air at first but it's the PA that creates the fresh zones.
I see, and the 5 min chart gets you in faster, while that 30 min supply is still forming. thanks again!
  • #4,096
  • Jun 27, 2016 1:25pm Jun 27, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} I see, and the 5 min chart gets you in faster, while that 30 min supply is still forming. thanks again!
Or you can just play the M30 PA

I use M5 to get a bigger position on and more entries but it's not needed. In fact, M5 may actually frustrate a lot of people.

Take a look at Kiwi today, H4 and M30.... Textbook stuff

H4 = Direction
M30 = PA entries (I see 4 entries based on today alone - green arrows).
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  • #4,097
  • Jun 27, 2016 1:39pm Jun 27, 2016 1:39pm
Hi C12,
what about the engulf in the red cycle?

What I think is because it's counter trend the engulf hast to come out of a S&D zone to be interessting (what is not the case) but when the set up would occur in direction of a trend you would take it?!
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  • #4,098
  • Jun 27, 2016 1:45pm Jun 27, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting MCFly
Hi C12, what about the engulf in the red cycle? What I think is because it's counter trend the engulf hast to come out of a S&D zone to be interessting (what is not the case) but when the set up would occur in direction of a trend you would take it?! {image}
It's a tricky one this. I probably would have taken it, let it run a few pips and then get to BE, once the opposing engulf kicked in then I'd have been out ASAP and probably straight into the short if I was around (based on higher TF direction).

The main problem it was counter trend but also that specific engulf was just too wide to get a safe stop in. I prefer the sell that came just after it but PA was a little messy in there at that moment.
  • #4,099
  • Jun 27, 2016 1:48pm Jun 27, 2016 1:48pm
This is more like a better looking counter-trend engulf. If I wasn't washing dishes I'd have steamed into that one and bagged a few.
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  • #4,100
  • Jun 27, 2016 1:53pm Jun 27, 2016 1:53pm
How about this one? lol... I guess it can get a little silly but why not. It's with trend off a M30 zone.

In fact, I've doubled this demo account today doing exactly this.
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