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  • #13,661
  • Jun 25, 2016 1:11am Jun 25, 2016 1:11am
Quoting The Fool
Back to the drawing board with the EU idea, or not - either way, it's not the end of the world.
Yeah, you're probably right. Maybe the EU was doomed to fail right from the start. It was a great forward-thinking idea, completely inline with the globalisation trend, but I guess a lot of people just aren't ready for it yet.

My wife summed it up yesterday. One of the greatest and most awe-inspiring moments she can remember from her childhood was the Berlin Wall being torn down. Such a great feeling of hope and unity for the future. Yesterday she felt exactly the opposite.

My feelings are less dramatic, and I think the UK can still prosper if things are handled properly by all sides. But that's a big "if".
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,662
  • Jun 25, 2016 1:44am Jun 25, 2016 1:44am
Well, North, I hope you guys will cheer up in time. Here, put a few 100 clams on this 100-lot UVXY DC, risk $270 to make >$15k. (...sure, they'll fill for 1c.......)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,663
  • Jun 25, 2016 1:49am Jun 25, 2016 1:49am
Quoting The Fool
Well, North, I hope you guys will cheer up in time. Here, put a few 100 clams on this 100-lot UVXY DC, risk $270 to make >$15k. (...sure, they'll fill for 1c.......)
the 7/22 - 7/29 calendar dates bracket the RNC National convention in Cleveland.....just in case there's a mass cannibalistic episode there...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,664
  • Edited 9:07pm Jun 25, 2016 8:04pm | Edited 9:07pm
WE LOVE volatility cuz it makes our time spreads swell with rich country goodness! I just did CAT and AAPL DC's several weeks back, when they were cheap....CAT is looking good, will make money if the iv's stay elevated. One of these days. I am gonna put one of these on, let the short legs expire, and then one of the long legs is gonna catch a giant move and go $10+ itm after the ER...:nerd:
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,665
  • Jun 25, 2016 8:28pm Jun 25, 2016 8:28pm
Quoting The Fool
WE LOVE volatility cuz it makes our time spreads swell with rich country goodness! I just did CAT and AAPL DC's several weeks back, when they were cheap....CAT is looking good, will make mpney if the iv's stay elevated. One of these days. I am gonna put one of these on, let the short legs expire, and then one of the long legs is gonna catch a giant move and go $10+ itm after the ER...:nerd: {image} {image}
Looks impressive.

Spotting recession warning signs the last few days and this is what i got:

1. No fundamental economic momentum. There can be little earnings momentum for companies reporting (such as Nike this week).

2. With the 10-year US Treasury yield at 1.6%, investors should be noticing how flat the curve is getting now and making the Fed nervous about their plans to get interest rate back to normal.

3. The average bulls historically last 63 months. We are now in 87 months into one.

Some other warning signs not worth mentioning as everybody already knows.
  • #13,666
  • Jun 25, 2016 8:35pm Jun 25, 2016 8:35pm
AAPL looks good, too...better methinks cuz it looks like the iv's have room to run towards the ER date. I have played this ER setup on AAPL several times and it has always made decent to very good $. Only fault I see for this one is I paid a little much ... prolly could have got it for 10-20c less with better timing.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,667
  • Jun 25, 2016 8:49pm Jun 25, 2016 8:49pm
Quoting peterdrill
We are now in 87 months into one. Some other warning signs not worth mentioning as everybody already knows.
sure but we are in the age of CB's, who will do "whatever it takes" to backstop the markets
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,668
  • Jun 25, 2016 8:54pm Jun 25, 2016 8:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}sure but we are in the age of CB's, who will do "whatever it takes" to backstop the markets
True but eventually everything will pile up, and the bear market will partake at one time or another. If not soon, I'd say that it would partake at the next ER announcements.

I also noticed that the NAV for UVXY is almost $2 higher than Friday's closure.
  • #13,669
  • Jun 25, 2016 9:44pm Jun 25, 2016 9:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}sure but we are in the age of CB's, who will do "whatever it takes" to backstop the markets
My two cents (although it's gone up to a nickel):

1. Free Money! We're in the age of "there's virtually free money somewhere" all the time ... . If it's no longer with the Fed (where it's still pretty much "free"), it'll be with the lagging ECB, the BOJ trying to get to its inflation target, or the PBOC trying to get its economy back to an unrealistically frenzied, overheated state ... . Unlike 20 years ago, it's a lot easier for that "free money" to move from market to market (i.e., out of the Eurozone, into the U.S.; out of the U.S., into Asia, etc.). At some point, that "free money" will disappear, but it doesn't appear that it will happen soon ... .

2. Stock Market Valuations. Either (a) stocks are too expensive (talking US markets here) from an objective basis and should be lower; or (b) stocks are too expensive, but the market just plain doesn't care ... . Given the price action the last (now going on) two years (basically sideways since July 2014), there's a tug-of-war between the "doesn't care" and "too expensive" camps. My guess, though, is that the "doesn't care" will win out here eventually because that's what the expectation generally is (S&P 7% YOY average returns over the long haul; we've been flat for a fairly long time, so the fallacious logic goes, "so we need to go up from here").

3. If You're Concerned About Market Direction, You're Probably "Playing it Wrong." To a certain extent, I'm oblivious and don't care about market direction, except in the all SPY covered call IRA, where down is "okay", but not "entirely good." Other than that, I play the ball from where it lies ... . And this volatility here is my friend. I was dreading that we'd have a totally dead premium selling summer, but the summer heat came early here; why not the IV? ... . Selling premium with nondirectional setups (iron condors, short strangles) frees me up from worrying where the hell this cluster of a market is headed 'cuz one thing you can guarantee: It ... will ... be ... maddening ... ).

4. Earnings "Crybabies". But if Greenback strength sticks in here, I imagine we'll hear more whining from the likes of CAT, DE, NKE executives about dollar strength headwinds for their foreign sales, leading to piss poor forward guidance ... . I'll continue to play earnings nondirectionally, though, because you just never know how the market's going to digest things like, "Hey, the last Q was fantastico, but the next Q is going to blow ... ." (Assuming I play any earnings; sometimes I just don't feel like it ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,670
  • Jun 25, 2016 9:54pm Jun 25, 2016 9:54pm
Speaking of my all SPY IRA, now thinking that my last "buy" for that thing may have been on the pricey side -- at 203 back in mid-May ... . Guess the buy in August 2015 at 182 and the two this year at 182 make up for that little bit of impatience ... . Probably my last buy of the underlying in that for a while is my guess.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,671
  • Jun 25, 2016 9:58pm Jun 25, 2016 9:58pm
Next week, I have to start layering stuff back on after going nearly flat pre-Brexit and before the volatility flash subsides (it inevitably does). Don't want to go all cray, but I've literally got squat in queue for my bread and butter index trades (got one SPX; that's it; ugh).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,672
  • Jun 25, 2016 10:05pm Jun 25, 2016 10:05pm
NKE's earnings are on Tuesday, but it needs to "bulk up" a touch if I'm going to play, since I like to get at least $100 credit out of these 1SD short strangles if I'm going to play; it's currently more than $10-$20 short of that.

MON's up for earnings also. It's in merger talks with Bayer; any time there's merger or buy-out news, I avoid playing those. They can end badly ... .

Pre-Brexit, I mentioned TBT/TLT plays; both of those are worth watching here. I want to go long TBT or short TLT, but if we're going to see further broad market weakness, it'll pay to be patient and wait for the remainder of the shit to hit the fan ... .

Additional post-Brexit vote plays may arise in EFA and EWU; those are tough from a premium selling standpoint, since they aren't that particularly premium rich, particularly EWU, which you can't do squat with unless you short straddle it. I prefer waiting for a bullish assumption play here (short put vert, Super Bull maybes). As an alternative for EWU, I'm thinking covered call due to the price of the underlying ... .

Nothing else is flashing "trade me" on Dough's volatility grid, where I'm looking for IVR >70 and IV >50, although that GDXJ seems to be perennially in high vol territory (not the most liquid thing in the world, however).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,673
  • Jun 25, 2016 10:15pm Jun 25, 2016 10:15pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
3. If You're Concerned About Market Direction, You're Probably "Playing it Wrong." To a certain extent, I'm oblivious and don't care about market direction,
agree, I wouldn't say I'm oblivious, but it's back seat to volatility....I am really just looking to buy low/sell high vol, position to catch that flow....it has taken me some time to learn to do this using long spreads, but it's doable. If I had a big-ass account to trade, sure I would be shorting fat vol, but that will have to wait....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,674
  • Jun 25, 2016 10:20pm Jun 25, 2016 10:20pm
Oh, wait a sec ... . Here's a possible winner: FAS Aug 19th 17/30 short strangle for a $104 credit. I really hate trading these 3x leveraged ETF's, but if you can get a $100+ out of a $23 underlying, well, it's worth at least taking the safety off and consider pulling the trigger ... . Naturally, these are off hours quotes, so I may not be able to get a buck out of the thing come Monday open, but worth a look ... .

Another: BCS covered call (brutalized post-Brexit; heck, just plain ass brutalized). 100 Shares at 8.89; Aug 19th 9 short call; total package: $798. Max Profit: $102 if called away at 9. Another one maybe to wait on a touch ... .

Yet Another Post-Brexit Beat-Down Play: EWG ... . As with EFA, EWU, a wait and watch to see if there's further broad market tankage ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,675
  • Jun 25, 2016 10:22pm Jun 25, 2016 10:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}agree, I wouldn't say I'm oblivious, but it's back seat to volatility....I am really just looking to buy low/sell high vol, position to catch that flow....it has taken me some time to do this using long spreads, but it's doable. If I had a big-ass account to trade, sure I would be shorting fat vol, but that will have to wait....
Yeah, I meant to qualify the "oblivious" ... . I watch it with these nondirectional setups because how far it moves and at what speed matters ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,676
  • Edited 11:50pm Jun 25, 2016 10:44pm | Edited 11:50pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Another: BCS covered call (brutalized post-Brexit; heck, just plain ass brutalized).... .
I had some Jun/Jul BCS call spreads at $10, took off 4bag before the vote, trying to shore up the bleeding long vol trades....ssshhh, 4 bag, meh....I sold out some VXX Jul 15 $17 long calls @ $2.25 Friday - those were a 8c debit in the original spread....what's that?.....25+ bag...that's more like it....I'm working up to 100 bag or better
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,677
  • Jun 25, 2016 11:11pm Jun 25, 2016 11:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I had soome Jun/Jul BCS call spreads at $10, took off 4bag before the vote, trying to shore up the bleeding long vol trades....ssshhh, 4 bag, meh....I sold out some VXX Jul 15 $17 long calls @ $2.25 Friday - those were a 8c debit in the original spread....what's that?.....25+ bag...that's more like it....I'm working up to 100 bag or better
100 bag? Wow. Wish I could comprehend your plays as some of them are too technical from my experience. I'm more into simplicity with simple calls / puts and sometimes straddles. I need to spend more time getting educated about spreads and so on.
  • #13,678
  • Jun 25, 2016 11:21pm Jun 25, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} 100 bag? Wow. Wish I could comprehend your plays as some of them are too technical from my experience. I'm more into simplicity with simple calls / puts and sometimes straddles. I need to spend more time getting educated about spreads and so on.
the essence of all trading is: buy low and sell high. If you just buy puts/calls, your risk is limited to the price you pay, which can be high, but the plus is that you are not limiting the profit potential of those contracts. In spreads, you are combining longs & shorts of options, which decreases the price but also the profit potential of the trade. That can work out better than a simple long call or put, depending on what the underlying does. Another step further is to buy time spreads - you are (for instance) short a front month option and long a back (further out in time) month option, so the potential there is that you have lowered the price of getting into long back month.....so, you ended up with a long option at a reduced price - buy low, sell high.

The beauty of spreads is that they offer multiple ways that you can make money on a trade, with defined risk...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,679
  • Jun 25, 2016 11:28pm Jun 25, 2016 11:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}the essence of all trading is: buy low and sell high. If you just buy puts/calls, your risk is limited to the price you pay, which can be high, but the plus is that you are not limiting the profit potential of those contracts. In spreads, you are combining longs & shorts of calls, which decreases the price but also the profit potentoial of the trade. That can work out better than a simple long call or put, depending on what the underlying does. Another step further is to buy time spreads - you are (for instance) short a front month option...
I'm definitely going to get into it as soon as I am fully briefed. Thanks for the info. Stocks now simply overpriced (for me) and VIX's options even more. Into several options now and built up for the bear - in hopes anyways.
  • #13,680
  • Jun 25, 2016 11:46pm Jun 25, 2016 11:46pm
it has never been easier to learn all about options trading - check out tastytrade.com and spend some time looking at the video content there...StrayDog, who used to post here, told me he spent 100's of hours watching those vids when he started trading options. It takes some effort to learn a good repertoire of options trades, but it is worth it. Good Luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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