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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,621
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:21pm Jun 23, 2016 10:21pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Greater than 50% declared ... . 52-48% ... . Leave >500k ahead ... . SPX500 breaking 2050; down 3.5% ... .
That is nothing compared to the drop in GBP/USD 1000+ pips
  • #13,622
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:23pm Jun 23, 2016 10:23pm
Quoting pmmebids
{congrats ... although this will have permanent consequences in Europe .. I guess CB intervention is around the corner..
I have talked some eurosceptic shit in sisse's thread, but in truth I am pretty agnostic. Maybe these winds of change will be good. Obviously if half the people in a given nation are dead set against it, the integration project needs some re-tooling, at least...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,623
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:31pm Jun 23, 2016 10:31pm
I hadda scroll back to find the last 10 handle red turd for /es - yep, the old Aug '15 yuan devaluation panic.

OMG.

Sabes que? - this could be even worse....but I see it took several days for that to build, so next week is key for the long vol junkies.

One problem I have is: lots of my "long vol" trades are call calendars, with short legs at Jul 01.....a hard and persistent vix spike could blow by those things and they might even lose money.....I gotta put my thinking tin foil hat on tonight and figger out what I can do....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_2026vix.png Size: 95 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,624
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:41pm Jun 23, 2016 10:41pm
Quoting The Fool
I hadda scroll back to find the last 10 handle red turd for /es - yep, the old Aug '15 yuan devaluation panic. OMG. Sabes que? - this could be even worse....but I see it took several days for that to build, so next week is key for the long vol junkies. One problem I have is: lots of my "long vol" trades are call calendars, with short legs at Jul 01.....a hard and persistent vix spike could blow by those things and they might even lose money.....I gotta put my thinking tin foil hat on tonight and figger out what I can do.... {image}
If you have any options in the money; for what i can see historically, they could rise between 100-300% Friday.
  • #13,625
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:50pm Jun 23, 2016 10:50pm
Was starting to feel a bit depressed about my long vol positions ... . What a difference a few hours makes.

Now, for the reversion part of our show, for which I have not positioned squat ... . One thing at a time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,626
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:54pm Jun 23, 2016 10:54pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Was starting to feel a bit depressed about my long vol positions ... . What a difference a few hours makes. Now, for the reversion part of our show, for which I have not positioned squat ... . One thing at a time ... .
yes, that's thinking ahead like a good pigrider should....that's a tricky trade to get into but I have ideas about wide, long-dated UVXY and VXX put flys, will show when the time comes.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,627
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:58pm Jun 23, 2016 10:58pm
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} If you have any options in the money; for what i can see historically, they could rise between 100-300% Friday.
well, I filled this one at breakfast this morning....a lotto ticket, just a hunch trade, I do these $100 crap shoots alla time....I bet I can get full chalupa on it, risk 11c to net out 40c....and I thought it was toast
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_2056uvxy.png Size: 13 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,628
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:42pm Jun 23, 2016 11:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well, I filled this one at breakfast this morning....a lotto ticket, just a hunch trade, I do these $100 crap shoots alla time....I bet I can get full chalupa on it, risk 11c to net out 40c....and I thought it was toast {image}
Oh, you dirty dog, snuck a lotto ticket in there at the last ... . Lol.

Well, now I think the outcome's a statistical certainty. Had to wait and watch just to make sure ... . Now the question is how big will volatility get? Don't want to get greedy, but I put most of these long vol setups on in April, and it's now almost July ... . Think it's about time I get paid for my time.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,629
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:46pm Jun 23, 2016 11:46pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I put most of these long vol setups on in April, and it's now almost July ... . Think it's about time I get paid for my time.
omg I heard the hell outta that, it's been torture....

maybe tomorrow this here article will come in handy

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/...stock-markets/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,630
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:00am Jun 24, 2016 12:00am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}omg I heard the hell outta that, it's been torture.... maybe tomorrow this here article will come in handy http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/...stock-markets/
S&P futures have already hit their "limit lo" at 1999 ... . Not sure how long that "limit lo" stays there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,631
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:03am Jun 24, 2016 12:03am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} S&P futures have already hit their "limit lo" at 1999 ... . Not sure how long that "limit lo" stays there ... .
I was told that they were halted, but not certain on the authentication on that.
  • #13,632
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:04am Jun 24, 2016 12:04am
26VX/M6 last at $28.20, +12.10 (+75.16%) ... . Just to give you an idea of the carnage to come tomorrow at open.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,633
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:11am Jun 24, 2016 12:11am
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} I was told that they were halted, but not certain on the authentication on that.
Well, they're not really "halted" per se ... . You can do anything you want ... except trade below the limit lo for the time being ... . /ES has had 0 volume since 1031. /NQ has had little blips of volume since 1031 above its limit lo, but nothing below its limit lo of 4234.50 ... . That's gotta be a bummer for those who want to bail ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,634
  • Jun 24, 2016 12:50am Jun 24, 2016 12:50am
time to make the donuts....I have a bunch of trades I need to adjust and some to take off tomorrow. I have to take what comes on the Jun 24 $17/20 vert calls....if VXX will pop to $18+ (from todays $13.5x close), that will be fine....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_2245vxx01.png Size: 83 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,635
  • Jun 24, 2016 1:03am Jun 24, 2016 1:03am
A more intriguing trade, w/ good weight, is Jun24/Jul01 $18.50 calendar calls. The best outcome is VXX settles below $18.50 at Friday close and the Jul01 long calls run into next week with a chance to go several $ itm.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_2255vxx003.png Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_2258vxx004.png Size: 83 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,636
  • Jun 24, 2016 1:59am Jun 24, 2016 1:59am
I put on this SPY put fly on 4/20, in anticipation of precisely the kind of post-Brexit market drop we are looking at now.....paid 36c and for a long time thought it was a lost cause, too far lost to try to salvage in any way.....$190/$180/$170 for Jul 15.....still seems like a trek, but we'll see.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_2353spy.png Size: 73 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,637
  • Jun 24, 2016 2:04am Jun 24, 2016 2:04am
is ya rich yet fool?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #13,638
  • Jun 24, 2016 2:04am Jun 24, 2016 2:04am
staying up to see the ^VIX gap, 0815 GMT.......hey PTL, how ya been?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,639
  • Jun 24, 2016 2:05am Jun 24, 2016 2:05am
Quoting PayTheLimit
is ya rich yet fool?
I just want to break even before I die...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,640
  • Jun 24, 2016 2:07am Jun 24, 2016 2:07am
lol, me too man...

my only hope is my son never trades a car of anything....ever...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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