Trading Institutional Order Flow

Good morning everyone.
The British people have spoken.
So have the markets

EURJPY trade
Oil trade

Traders watch the charts and listen
I could show GBP charts as well but I did the sensible thing and stayed away from direct impact and went for softer targets, as Sun Tzu says, "Attack where he is weak".

S&D still worked on the GBP charts though.

best wishes

Hil, I show my index curve for auto-educational purpose. It seems it is no time to sell anymore, we are close to a very important demand zone (weekly trader)
I wait the the right occasion to buy (when and if it will come).
A nice week-end to all!

Hello everyone.

Seeing the fireworks are now over and the world is beginning to take in the reality of the EU without Britain, i thought it a good time to go over some general rules of the methodology, for the newer S&D trader, many of whom i know view the thread but are too shy to speak up; but also for the more seasoned S.A.D trader, as a review.

The methodology is based entirely on the fundamental market concepts that govern any and all markets, Supply and Demand.

Supply as defined in the methodology is a range of price out of which price emerges with a significant decrease in the value of the asset. We define trade-able supply as that with a move of at least 2X the size of the price range from which it felt. Anything less than that is considered inadequate or riskier.

Demand on the other hand is defined as a range of price out of which price emerges with a significant increase in the value of the asset. By significant, again we refer to the requirement for a move that is at least 2X the size of the zone.

By definition, demand will always be below current price and supply will always be above where price is right now.

That is the zone theory within the methodology. It is critical to train one's own eyes to begin to see these price ranges or zones on the chart because the methodology asserts that it is at these zones that price will turn from.

So to summarize, the methodology is heavily focused on identifying areas of potential future price reversals, anticipating those reversals and using that knowledge to engage the market profitably.

The foundation of the methodology is in what I call Price sequence analysis, also known as multiple time frame analysis. A critical appraisal of market information. It is entirely based on the concept of the Fractality of price.

A S.A.D trader is required to assess every trading opportunity in the light of more than just the time frame he/she finds a zone on. The trader must reference other time frames to assess the probability of success of his potential trade. That is the purpose of Price sequencing.

This is one of the areas within the methodology that allows for flexibility in terms of choosing what price sequences one decides to use for decision making.

A minimum of three is required and a maximum of 5 is advised.

Understanding what to do when doing price sequencing or multiple time frame analysis is what makes a S.A.D trader successful or not successful. It is therefore critical to approach this task with great care, knowledge and understanding.

There is often a misunderstanding by traders newly exposed to S.A.D trading that it is trading counter trend or that it is trading support and resistance. Both assertions could not be further from the truth.

S.A.D trading is one of the most trend anticipatory methods of trading the markets out there. Its very basis is in identifying trends early enough to be able to participate usefully in them whilst at the same time doing so with the lowest risk and highest profit potential possible in terms of Reward to risk ratios.
It is specific in its entries and as we all know, good entries make for good exits and better mental state management. It is a method flexible in its management of stop losses and the ways to exit a trade for profit.

Here are some general rules that may help newer S.A.D traders

1. Only ever buy at demand
2. Only ever sell at supply
3. Always follow the trend until and and unless prices become too expensive
4. Even when prices become expensive, wait for evidence prices are becoming cheaper before selling to enter a new trade.
5. Define what your stop strategy is. The rule is that whatever the case the stop must be below the zone if buying or above the zone if selling. The decision the trader makes is by how much above or below. The standard among S.A.D traders is a minimum of 4 pips or ticks.
6. Define what your entry strategy will be. Are you a front runner, meaning you enter a few pips before a zone to make sure you get filled? Are you an "at the zone" trader who enters when price reaches the zone; are you an intra-zone trader meaning you wait for price to enter into the zone to take the trade; or are you a confirmation trader, one who waits for price to come into a zone and then drops down the price sequence to a smaller time frame to view price with a closer lens and pin point your entry? Define who you are
7. Define your exit strategy - hard exits for example, 2:1, 4:1 etc; soft exits for example trailing with a moving average, parabolic SAR etc, or a combination of hard and soft. Define it.

This is the S.E.T strategy (stop, entry, target). As Sun Tzu says, "attack by strategem". The methodology allows you to do just that. Once you have done these three, then and only then can you "forget" the trade as S.A.D traders say.

There are many more rules and guidelines that each trader can decide to add or discard.

I hope these help get new traders started.

best wishes

Hello everyone.

The NZ/JPY analysis.

best wishes

Hello everyone

the USD/JPY analysis.

best wishes

Hello Mosah. Good to meet you
I got your message but i can't reply because it says your settings does not allow me to reply.
Please change the settings and allow messages to be sent to you and then resend the request.

best wishes

Good Morning AKT,
I changed the setting.
Now, you can replay
Regards

Hello everyone.

on the EUR/JPY. I traded this pair during the brexit vote using the methodology.
New opportunities have arisen since.

best wishes

Hello everyone.

UKOil analysis.

best wishes

GREAT.......................................................................

Hi AKT,
When I analyses the same pair with M,W,D combo the bias is short, how one should deal with such controversial scenario.
Thanks in advance.

Hi VSM,
Please, Could you post your charts.
Thanks

please find MWD combo

Hello Vsm and Mosah.
Thank you for the charts Vsm.

You are correct that a position trader would be looking to ultimately short this pair.
However now is not the time. It is too low on the monthly curve.
A rally to supply is required.
By the way, the supply you drew on the monthly is tested. It is a single candle so it should be drawn as bottom to top like so...

best wishes

Hello everyone.
The S&P 500, today's trade
As one of my students said, "a long trade in a falling market?"
I smiled.

best wishes

Hello everyone

Conclusion of s&p trade

best wishes

Hello everyone

So, let’s talk briefly today about what to look for in assessing the quality of a supply or demand zone.
This assumes the trader has completed a top-down analysis and identified potential entry zones into the market, long or short.
To evaluate the quality of the potential zones, he/she must use some filters to either rule in or rule to the many potential zones that will be present on the chart.

There are a number of ways a S.A.D trader can do this. Here are some of them.

How do you evaluate a zone for its quality?
1. How much time did price spend at the level? – the fewer the better
2. How many times has price come back to the zone since it was created? – fresh untested zones are best
3. How far did price move away before returning? – at least 2x the size of the zone
4. How close is the nearest opposing zone to the proposed entry? – the further away the better

i hope that helps

best wishes

Brilliant posts Akt. Thank you for the refresher.

Hello everyone.

As the U.S markets open, just thought i should share my thoughts on today's activity and what i am considering

best wishes

Hello guys, anyone tries to short usdcad H4 ?