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A funny twist to the Brexit scene less than 24 hours from D-Day. GBP now trades based on how the weather over England is forecasted to be on Thursday. You got that right, the market now moves on the weather. Things have gotten so desperate that both human and algo traders are trigger happy on any and every remotely related new flash.

Wednesday actually started out rather docile with GBP in a strays ascend during the Asian hours. Volatility and trading volume spiked as Europe opened and GBPUSD peaked at its intraday highs (also the weekly highs thus far) before rolling sharply lower as the U.S. session started. As depicted, the weather apparently made all the difference (sarcasm).

More seriously, the latest Opinium polls show Brexit leading only by 1% at 45% vs. Bremain at 44%; the former gaining a percentage point since last poll.

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The poll that seals the Brexit fate? The latest and final YouGov poll released late Wednesday shows Bremain in the lead with 51% of the votes while Brexit has 49%. There were no undecided voters in this poll. The results were in the favor of Bremain and was a huge jump (42% to 51% since 19 June). That's all the markets were caring about, and it was definitely convincing enough to seal the deal that Brexit was not going to be voted for in the actual deal. This latest YouGov release updated the FT poll tracker results in Bremain's favor — 47% vs. 45% (was 44% vs. 45% previously).

The reason why so much emphasis is being placed on this poll is because, as Reuters reports, like in 2014 and unlike in the UK national elections, British broadcasters will not conduct exit polls in Thursday — in which people are asked as they leave polling stations how they voted — once polling closes at 10pm local time because the margin of error for an event which has little precedent is too large.

However, that same logic apparently does not prevent the very same YouGov pollster cited above, to publish a poll showing how people have voted in the European Union referendum shortly after polling stations close on Thursday. Reuters reports that "the poll will be based on responses from a pre-selected group of people seen as representative of the wider electorate on how they actually voted in the referendum. Its findings are due to be announced by Sky News soon after polling stations close at 10 p.m. (2100 GMT)."

GBP crosses are ripping across the board, risk is rallying and safety has been hit hard as it seems the market is now looking at a Bremain situation less than 8 hours before the polls open at 12pm local time Thursday.

#Forex #Stocks #Trading #Investing #Money #Economy #Finance #Business #GBPUSD #GBP #JoCox #Brexit #UK #Europe #Euro #UK #EUref

With so much uncertainty and concerns in 2016, it's no surprise that gold and the precious metals in general have been stellar performers in the first half of this year so far. Ironically when the Fed made its first rate hike in 9 years last December, prices found a bottom a little south of $1050 and rallied higher.

The rally has finally caught a fever pitch with gold and silver being very popular subjects of "investments" both amongst professionals and retail. This has led to near record high net long speculative positioning in gold and silver futures (i.e. traders are the most net long since the 2009 financial crisis).

Besides positioning, options skew in gold has turned very negative. Negative options skew means that call prices are much higher than put prices, implying much more demand for calls (positive upside exposure) than demand for puts (downside protection). In January this year, gold puts became cheaper than calls in general, the first time this has happened since 2010... And this trend shoes little sign of exhaustion.

Also, when we plot the size of the Fed's balance sheet, we can see when the tight positive correlation between both ended and parted in late-2012. In fact, during the whole of QE3, gold prices declined while the Fed's balance sheet expanded to record larges.

The question we really which an answer to, is what exactly happened in the black rectangle which caused one of the greatest divergences to date in the financial markets.

As the UK EU referendum is underway, GBPUSD breaks 1.49 for the first time since December. The bulls are strong with this one - does this mean Bremain is the stronger possibility now? Only time will tell.

Stay tuned for our updates on IG, FB and businessoffinance.com.

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Voting day has started with the pound sterling exploding to fresh 2016 highs as the market is now firmly in the belief that Brexit will never happen. However markets have come to the conclusion that a 'remain' vote will prevail at the end of Thursday (final referendum results should be out Friday morning BST), it definitely has to do with the most recent opinion polls which show Bremain leading across most pollsters. The story is even more towards Bremain at the bookies with odds for a Brexit slumping to 17% lows just this morning...

The explosion in GBP has lifted all boats. Risk assets have rallied dramatically from their "Dead Cox bounce" last week. As GBP vol premium decays, the re-risking trade seems to be roaring ahead. But frankly, no one will know for sure what the final results will be until they're announced.

As more and more turnout data and post-voting poll data by pollster YouGov surfaces, expect crazy volatility and the market to get even more unidirectional (as if it isn't already).

Britons woke up to some nasty weather this Thursday morning as they head out to vote on the EU referendum. Up to 300 "999" calls were made in the prior night reporting on lightning and flooding. As can be seen in the montage of pictures, the floods are indeed quite bad and might lower turnout rates slightly as people become discouraged as they have to get wet (literally) to vote...

As reported earlier, GBP vol premiums have collapsed following the ramp higher in GBP crosses since the start of this week. 1-week implied volatility for GBP futures have fallen from 47 at the start of the weak to 31 currently. Interesting to note that even though GBPUSD was already rallying hard since late Thursday last week, corresponding vol only peaked on Monday; maybe hedges only started to cover later on.

It remains to be seen if this unwinding of protective puts was premature. We'll find out in a few hours when vote results start to surface.

what is Indian Standard time for Brexit result ?

Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close 2100 GMT, India is about 5 hrs ahead, so you do the math.

To put Brexit into perspective, the only 2 comparable events where volatility had been higher was during Black Monday in 1992 (where the BoE withdrew the pound from a European exchange rate system) and during the Great Recession and global financial crisis of 2008 (as shown in the extreme left of this chart).

In our previous post, we stated that GBP vol has decline substantially going into the Brexit referendum. However, we questioned if the unending of downside hedges was premature since the results of the referendum are still not yet known.

Broadening our view, FX volatility in general has been elevated for the entirety of 2016 thanks to the potent combination of central bank (monetary policy) activity, macro economic events, and of course Brexit, which we are currently contending with.

It will be a long, nail biting, and most definitely sleepless night for FX traders. Surely worthy of historic mention.

--Updates throughout the night--

Here in Asia, we won't be sleeping. Brexit has little precedent, and we'll be doing our best to cover the event...
Voting has officially begun in the UK. Polls opened at 0600 GMT and will close 2100 GMT.

Follow us here on FF, and on our website for the full coverage.

http://www.businessoffinance.com/ins...uide-to-brexit

The ballots have now officially been closed for an hour and it looks almost certain that 'remain' has won this historic vote. First, it was euroskeptic UKIP leader Nigel Farage who out of nowhere, tweeted that "looks like Remain will edge it", admitting that there will be no Brexit.

Below are what we currently know:

• SkyNews reports 82.3% turnout (a very high turnout rate, putting Bremain in favor)

• YouGov post-vote poll of 5,000 previously polled people show 52% 'remain' and 48% 'leave'

The result? GBPUSB above 1.5000 (crosses are soaring, now up more than 6% since last week's lows). SPX well above 2020 as global stocks soar. Much more to come as we catch up on the action...

#Forex #Stocks #Trading #Investing #Money #Economy #Finance #Business #GBPUSD #GBP #JoCox #Brexit #UK #Europe #Euro #UK #EUref

The markets have reacted to early indications that Bremain has won this referendum. While no official counts are yet out, it looks almost certain that the 'remain' camp will be victorious as even euroskeptic UKIP party leader Nigel Farage admitted openly that he believed "Remain will edge it out".

Naturally, GBP crosses are flying, taking out stops wth GBPUSD touching 1.5000 briefly, now up close to 1,000 pips since the killing of MP Jo Cox last Thursday. Stocks are absolutely surging as hedges are lifted wth great speed, sending the Dow well above 18,000 post the U.S. close, and S&P 500 over 2,020. European equity futures are the top performers with the DAX30 taking our 10,300 at last check. Gold is slumping as safety trades are no longer attractive and make little sense to be bid now that the biggest uncertainty for the markets has been resolved. Yields are rising, but not as much as gold and other safe haven assets are crashing.

Again, more to come as we get to speed with events...

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There's just NO WAY any retail trader can trade this market right here and right now. We're watching the live charts and quotes and we've NEVER seen this level and type of volatility ever.

This chart speaks for itself. GBP crosses dumped 500+ pips (on GBPUSD alone) in less than 2 minutes from 1.48 to 1.43 after Sunderland reported a huge win for 'leave'.

As the results start to bleed in one at a time (this is the key to why trading this is almost impossible), such swings can be expected to happen each time a new count is reported. This is because no one knows the exact moments the counts will become public, and the nature of said counts.

This isn't trading. It's gambling.

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What a turn of events! It started with bookie Brexit odds at 11% lows, GBP rallies to highs of 1.5000 vs. USD, then results start rolling in and everything turns. Brexit odds at the bookies now averaging 45-50% (so 50-50 now, from 20-80 earlier today).

About 10% of counts have been reported and Brexit is leading with approximately 7% according to Reuters calculations.

GBPJPY (in this chart) and most other markets including equities, gold, bonds, USD are reacting extremely violently... GBPUSD just hit session lows of 1.4000 (back at last week's Jo Cox death lows), falling 1000 pips in less than 3 hours, clocking in a 700 pip crash earlier today after Sunderland reported a smashing win for 'leave'.

Again, we reiterate that we haven't see such volatility in our time in the markets. Ever. This is pretty crazy...

#Forex #Stocks #Trading #Investing #Money #Economy #Finance #Business #GBPUSD #GBP #JoCox #Brexit #UK #Europe #Euro #UK #EUref

LIVE VOTE TRACKING: http://www.businessoffinance.com/ins...uide-to-brexit

Full coverage and updates in the page below. Unprecedented volatility, 500pip swings in markets. This is turning out to be one of the wildest days in record history!

#Forex #Stocks #Trading #Investing #Money #Economy #Finance #Business #GBPUSD #GBP #JoCox #Brexit #UK #Europe #Euro #UK #EUref

Sincerely hope no one (retail traders) is trying to trade through this mess. Markets are wilder than ever, with virtually every currency pair affected by the ever changing swings in volatility as a result of the referendum event. If you trade through this, you are either a machine (literally) or a pure gambler!

Look what I did , and I add it live