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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,581
  • Edited 11:56pm Jun 22, 2016 11:29pm | Edited 11:56pm
I would throw out that Aug ^vix spike, it is likely an extreme outlier. To tell you the truth, I see lots of hazards down the tracks, we could see nice doses of volatility until the US elections. If (when) we get another big vol crash, I will be looking to buy cheap VXX spreads out in Sept and beyond. Waiting to see on UVXY, it could easily slide into R/S territory....then the trick is to try to get in cheap put spreads on it, with enough time to catch its next decay cycle
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,582
  • Jun 23, 2016 2:28am Jun 23, 2016 2:28am
life is full of disappointments.....gonna be a long day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-23_0022vix1.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,583
  • Jun 23, 2016 3:30am Jun 23, 2016 3:30am
Quoting The Fool
life is full of disappointments.....gonna be a long day {image}
It already is. Maybe just better to sleep through it, rather than cross examine the scenario that will unfold.
  • #13,584
  • Jun 23, 2016 4:36am Jun 23, 2016 4:36am
Quoting The Fool
life is full of disappointments.....gonna be a long day {image}
VIX very swingy. It always impresses me how people react to volatility. Their will be plenty of exaggeration today.
  • #13,585
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:55am Jun 23, 2016 9:55am
[quote=Cecil Gee;8993602]
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Might be forced to buy puts near the end of today on SPY or DIA for friday and next weeks expiry[/quote IN for Friday expiry plus next week long vertical puts ready now for bear action so far it looks it may just happen
doesn't look good for my bear trades so far
  • #13,586
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:11am Jun 23, 2016 10:11am
[quote=Cecil Gee;8995645]
Quoting Cecil Gee
doesn't look good for my bear trades so far
if Bremain results today, equities should rally pretty fast to new ath's...that's just 30 pts away for /ES
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,587
  • Jun 23, 2016 12:44pm Jun 23, 2016 12:44pm
[quote=The Fool;8995679]
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote}if Bremain results today, equities should rally pretty fast to new ath's...that's just 30 pts away for /ES
just wondering it slumps again b4 the close ready fora large gap down tomorrow once the vote is in
  • #13,588
  • Jun 23, 2016 2:44pm Jun 23, 2016 2:44pm
I did not fill anything I posted the other day and just going to hold onto what I have. However, I will definitely look to buy some FXE puts tomorrow

on a side note, assuming my short-term view is SPY rally, would you say this is a good way to play ATH and beyond (1 to 9 risk reward)? Obviously the time to enter was yesterday, but here we are..

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  • #13,589
  • Jun 23, 2016 5:41pm Jun 23, 2016 5:41pm
Quoting The Fool
The UVXY put diagonal shown I could make a few bucks on a nice finish Fri, but I really want UVXY to close the week safely north of $10, so the $9 puts run into next week and guard the basement door. It only cost 4c to put on but it could return >$1.00 if UVXY crashes below $8 next week....
mmm hmmm, trying to get fancy & ending up getting my dck shot off, that's my specialty. I have some bull vert puts (VXX ) that will go near full profit, but this diagonal will cost more to close, unless there be some healthy profit-taking Friday and UVXY squeaks back up above $10.00.........that seems unlikely & it might open gapped down < $9.00, with R/S notice coming soon....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,590
  • Jun 23, 2016 5:45pm Jun 23, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Does this, um, look "tight" to you running into Brexit? {image} May have gotten "a touch" aggressive with the rolling in ... . But the notion here is a "pin" in the 2080-2090 area running into Brexit. Max profit is $585/contract, but I'll have to chicken out prior to expiry (these are Friday a.m. settlement options), as I sure ain't holding this bag Thursday overnight ... .
Had to roll out my iron condor this a.m. while I could still get a credit for the call side ... . Gonna give it a couple of more weeks to allow the full digestion of Brexit. It's now a July 8th 1980/1190/2105/2120 with a scratch point of $750/contract ... . Just noticed that, in my haste to roll the bitch out, I did the put side as a $10 wide; I'll fix that will a roll if this thing keeps on going ... . Ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,591
  • Jun 23, 2016 5:48pm Jun 23, 2016 5:48pm
Here's the page with an ongoing tally if you want to watch the results come in ... . http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Gibraltar is first in with a vote of 19322 remain to 823 leave ... . Only 381 results left to declare ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,592
  • Jun 23, 2016 5:55pm Jun 23, 2016 5:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Gibraltar is first in with a vote of 19322 remain to 823 leave ... . Only 381 results left to declare ... .
it'd be tough to give up the Rock.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,593
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:28pm Jun 23, 2016 6:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it'd be tough to give up the Rock.
How quickly things change; sterling pound lost 3% in 5 mins. Going to be plenty of swings ongoing today and Friday. I'm still long on calls.
  • #13,594
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:34pm Jun 23, 2016 6:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Here's the page with an ongoing tally if you want to watch the results come in ... .
Hey thanks a million for that webpage, Zeebs. I was just gonna feed myself through a wood chipper - but now I can watch that instead. Will take longer and be more painful. Brexit holding strong now, gonna be a long night it seems...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,595
  • Jun 23, 2016 7:13pm Jun 23, 2016 7:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Hey thanks a million for that webpage, Zeebs. I was just gonna feed myself through a wood chipper - but now I can watch that instead. Will take longer and be more painful. Brexit holding strong now, gonna be a long night it seems...
Watching /ES with each county's reporting in is a blast ... . I really don't quite understand it, except that the market doesn't have a clue about whether the ones reporting were likely to vote that way or not. The trend has been rural, older, less educated: leave; metro, young, education: remain ... . Ain't rocket science as to which demographic is where ... .

Nevertheless, traders just see "Remain," and the thing shoots skyward; they see "Leave", and it shoots back into the dirt ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,596
  • Jun 23, 2016 7:16pm Jun 23, 2016 7:16pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Watching /ES with each county's reporting in is a blast ... . I really don't quite understand it, except that the market doesn't have a clue about whether the ones reporting were likely to vote that way or not. The trend has been rural, older, less educated: leave; metro, young, education: remain ... . Ain't rocket science as to which demographic is where ... . Nevertheless, traders just see "Remain," and the thing shoots skyward; they see "Leave", and it shoots back into the dirt ... .
What a show this is. Like watching a soap opera - Like my stomach turns or General Accident.
  • #13,597
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:04pm Jun 23, 2016 8:04pm
If you're watching the BBC, you can see commentators' concern regarding a Brexit result mounting somewhat given where things are at at this point in time. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36559505
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,598
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:07pm Jun 23, 2016 8:07pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
If you're watching the BBC, you can see commentators' concern regarding a Brexit result mounting somewhat given where things are at at this point in time. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-36559505
CNN is surprised and claiming that the campaign was not run properly - no surprise their. Sterling pound down now almost 5%
  • #13,599
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:09pm Jun 23, 2016 8:09pm
SPX500 down 50+ handles ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,600
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:09pm Jun 23, 2016 8:09pm
/ES down 45....we could be looking at Black Friday, boys.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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