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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #761
  • Jun 22, 2016 10:41am Jun 22, 2016 10:41am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Correct. Poor profit margin though best wishes
Stop loss would be at 1253 aprox...and tp at 1290...that would be a rr of 3..not too bad and I would give it a 50 percent chance of succeeding.


Blackhat
  • #762
  • Jun 22, 2016 10:52am Jun 22, 2016 10:52am
Hi there,
studing USDCHF, these are my thoughts:

W: price inside Demand level, I expect to have more odds of long positions

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF W.png Size: 47 KB


D: price test today the Demand level and seems It was reject back. Good new for long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF D.png Size: 45 KB


H4: momentum is down, long lower shadows are signs of buyers around.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF H4.png Size: 47 KB


Conclusions: if price break the down momentum trend line with a good movement, we can start to buy the news and fresh demand level.

Comments are welcome

Cheers!
Mauro
Limit your loss, save partial gain and let the profit run!
  • #763
  • Jun 22, 2016 11:53am Jun 22, 2016 11:53am
Quoting 4XAlien
Hi Guys Here is the trade I took this morning, same type of set up as yesterday, both taken on Spot Forex with small time frames, very tight stops (5 pips max) and targets, risk 1% reward 3% {image} {image} Great discussion, would like to add a few words to the wise if I may. Ive been doing this for 8 years and have also traded Futures, mainly Currencies, Equitys and the Treasuries markets, a few years back the Spot market was more difficult with tight stops, however agree Akt with ECN Brokers and commissions now available the spreads are seriously...
4XAlien

You planning on retiring soon?
Keep this up and you will not have any more space to keep all this loot Sir.!!!
Really pleased for you. Well done.
Couldn't agree more with your observations

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #764
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:06pm Jun 22, 2016 12:06pm
Quoting MadMojosss
Selling EURUSD {image} {image}
Hello MadMojoss,
lets talk about refining your zones a bit more, for better entries.
Good entries make for good exits and great profit margins.

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD FOUR HOUR MADMOJOSSS.PNG Size: 93 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #765
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:48pm Jun 22, 2016 12:48pm
Hello everyone.

Crude oil today. Trade in management

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: crude 22616.PNG Size: 87 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #766
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:56pm Jun 22, 2016 1:56pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello MadMojoss, lets talk about refining your zones a bit more, for better entries. Good entries make for good exits and great profit margins. best wishes {image}
Thank you AKT!
Limit your loss, save partial gain and let the profit run!
  • #767
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:11pm Jun 22, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting Akt
Hello Merka, good to hear from you, been a while. here are my thoughts sir....
Thanks for your help.I'm doing my home works but always watching your videos and reeding the thread.Cheers.Merka
  • #768
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:36pm Jun 22, 2016 2:36pm
Like your style. Like your moves.
I'm using a 15m curve with 5m entries on the GBPNZD. And yes @$#% hits the fan quick so you need to be prepared to jump ship. I've found that if you are very picky and select only the best levels then your odds will increase dramatically. Price is fractal the concepts discussed here can be used on any number of timeframes. You just have to remember your profit targets will obviously be different on a 4 hour chart vs a 5 min.
Thanks.
Quoting 4XAlien
Hi Guys Here is the trade I took this morning, same type of set up as yesterday, both taken on Spot Forex with small time frames, very tight stops (5 pips max) and targets, risk 1% reward 3% {image} {image} Great discussion, would like to add a few words to the wise if I may. Ive been doing this for 8 years and have also traded Futures, mainly Currencies, Equitys and the Treasuries markets, a few years back the Spot market was more difficult with tight stops, however agree Akt with ECN Brokers and commissions now available the spreads are seriously...
  • #769
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:05pm Jun 22, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting blackhat
{quote} Stop loss would be at 1253 aprox...and tp at 1290...that would be a rr of 3..not too bad and I would give it a 50 percent chance of succeeding. Blackhat
So I am closing this one and will not trade tomorrow due to the brexit decision. Got out at almost break even at 1264.
  • #770
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:05pm Jun 22, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting Akt
Hello everyone. Crude oil today. Trade in management best wishes{image}
Text book trade..Well done!
  • #771
  • Jun 22, 2016 5:05pm Jun 22, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting freez2ryme
{quote} Is dre any reason y u choosed to trade only GBPNZD? from my experience I have always been Succesfull trading this methodology on Majors Tried it on minor crosses butit was a disaster. I believe that it's d correlation btw GBPUSD and NZDUSD that actually determines d moves on GBNZD, I may be wrong though. Just my 1 cent
I used to trade 75 pairs, I was scanning for setups on 4H charts every Sunday for 4-5 hours. I managed 12% in 8 months and with a lot of stress and hard work. I've chosen GBPNZD because has the highest average daily moves from all the pairs, at the moment is 280 points. All I need is a piece of that. Now if you wake my up in the middle of the night I know everything I need to know about all time frames on this pair. Now I am not looking 4-5 hours for setups on all the pairs and always being confused. Instead I am waiting for the setup to come to me. Easy!!!. Now I spend 30min in the morning and 30min in the afternoon. Only 5h a week. My average return for the last 10 month is 9.6%/month. Much easier to trade and stress free and more reward-able. I don't care about any correlation or any other pairs. I just need to be aware about the news regarding GBP and NZD . After 10 years I realized that simple is the best way to trade. I cannot make simpler that this trading with no indicator, just price action and only one pair. I am very happy with that approach and I will never change it. Works for me.
  • #772
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:13pm Jun 22, 2016 6:13pm
GCAD
Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcad-w.png Size: 50 KB


Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcad-d-setup.png Size: 40 KB
  • #773
  • Jun 23, 2016 1:39am Jun 23, 2016 1:39am
Quoting Akt
{quote} 4XAlien You planning on retiring soon? Keep this up and you will not have any more space to keep all this loot Sir.!!! Really pleased for you. Well done. Couldn't agree more with your observations best wishes
....



Thanks
  • #774
  • Edited 4:54am Jun 23, 2016 1:47am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting goathed1
Like your style. Like your moves. I'm using a 15m curve with 5m entries on the GBPNZD. And yes @$#% hits the fan quick so you need to be prepared to jump ship. I've found that if you are very picky and select only the best levels then your odds will increase dramatically. Price is fractal the concepts discussed here can be used on any number of timeframes. You just have to remember your profit targets will obviously be different on a 4 hour chart vs a 5 min. Thanks. {quote}

Agree, some days its all done and dusted in 1 or 2 trades, other days it can take 10 to 20 depending on time frames being used, its not always about being right, but understanding how to deal with being wrong.

Thanks
  • #775
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:29am Jun 23, 2016 6:29am
Quoting MadMojosss
Hi there, studing USDCHF, these are my thoughts: W: price inside Demand level, I expect to have more odds of long positions {image} D: price test today the Demand level and seems It was reject back. Good new for long. {image} H4: momentum is down, long lower shadows are signs of buyers around. {image} Conclusions: if price break the down momentum trend line with a good movement, we can start to buy the news and fresh demand level. Comments are welcome Cheers! Mauro
Looking at the daily approach into the demand zone you highlighted, I do not like the approach. Its creeping into it. Slowly eating into the long orders. This is indicative of weakness in the buyers. Also if price was to jump it would need to contend against all the new sellers positioned just above your zone reducing your profit margin. What you want to see is a strong move into a level. I mean scary strong (euphoric buying or selling) where you are scared to take the trade. Why? Because zones should act as magnets for price. The stronger the move in the stronger the level*.

Also note that the origin of the move up on the daily is a very wicky doji candle which to me tells me the zone is actually a reaction or rather an associated zone and not authentic. It did not make a base, but rather jumped due to institutional order stacking below the area from 2015-08-24 daily zone.

I hope I have painted some nuances when looking at individual zones.
  • #776
  • Jun 23, 2016 11:58am Jun 23, 2016 11:58am
Quoting livindaylite
GCAD Weekly {image} Daily {image}
Hello livindaylite.
Apologies for the tardiness. Been a bit busy for me.

here are my thoughts.

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad response livingdaylite.PNG Size: 117 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #777
  • Edited 1:30pm Jun 23, 2016 12:48pm | Edited 1:30pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello blackhat. Good to meet you. Welcome Thank you for the kind words. Much appreciated. You are correct in your assertion that it is trickier to trade forex on really small time frames but that is not because of the methodology. The risk would be the same with any methodology that trades with these small time frames. The reason in the old days was because of the broker's ability to suddenly move the goal post when it suited them and widen spreads which would catch out the traders using tight small stops because of the small time frames...
Many thanks for your reply and sharing your views.

I have burned myself a few times and got stopped hunted. I think even if the broker is ECN it still goes to a market marker and can see you stop levels.
However you are fully correct that every system has this. and for sure the stop hunts vary per broker. I took a gold short today on CFD on the 5 min which was a win.
https://new.tradingview.com/x/wAsHSZKe/
EDIT removed the video:

all the best.
  • #778
  • Jun 23, 2016 12:56pm Jun 23, 2016 12:56pm
Hello blackhat.

that is exactly the point of the ECN broker, in that they bypass the need for a market maker. The linking of buyers and sellers is done electronically through a liquidity pool.

Thank you for the information on the video but i am sorry it goes against one of the rules of the thread. Please leave your reply but kindly remove the video.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #779
  • Jun 23, 2016 1:47pm Jun 23, 2016 1:47pm
Quoting Akt
Hello blackhat. that is exactly the point of the ECN broker, in that they bypass the need for a market maker. The linking of buyers and sellers is done electronically through a liquidity pool. Thank you for the information on the video but i am sorry it goes against one of the rules of the thread. Please leave your reply but kindly remove the video. best wishes
Hi Akt,
Ok video is removed now I overlooked it this rule..sorry about that.

I am still learning after many years. I thought that regardless of a broker or big bank taking the other side of your trade they can still manipulate the prices.
Will end the point as this is such a great place to find and see new opportunities and don't want to hijack the forum.

All the best
  • #780
  • Jun 23, 2016 3:03pm Jun 23, 2016 3:03pm
Quoting blackhat
{quote} Hi Akt, Ok video is removed now I overlooked it this rule..sorry about that. I am still learning after many years. I thought that regardless of a broker or big bank taking the other side of your trade they can still manipulate the prices. Will end the point as this is such a great place to find and see new opportunities and don't want to hijack the forum. All the best
Thank you blackhat for your understanding. Much appreciated.
it is good to chat on here.

best wishes
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
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