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Let's Make 20pips - Simple System

  • #21
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:55am Jun 23, 2016 8:55am
Quoting ooLah
SHORT EURUSD...I am seeking to hold this one to the last rejected bearish close on the current swing because the setup has occurred on bar in a fractal structure. {image}
closed +22pips, get the feeling price will return to the last bullish close for testing.
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #22
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:15am Jun 23, 2016 9:15am
Quoting ooLah
{quote} closed +22pips, get the feeling price will return to the last bullish close for testing.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Why?
Just when I thought I understood, you put up this trade.

On all of your previous pics, you show entry on bar "Following" 2nd rejection. On EU trade, the following bar never reached the close of the subject bar. Please explain.
Thanks,
Darryl
  • #23
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:17am Jun 23, 2016 9:17am
I've set and left another EURUSD short. Risk is 30pips, because its a daily chart setup. Current picture showing today likely to be short day from here onwards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SIMPLE6.png Size: 16 KB
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #24
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:18am Jun 23, 2016 9:18am
Basically, this is another way to potentially monetize support/resistance. Good eye.
  • #25
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:19am Jun 23, 2016 9:19am
Quoting diamonddbw
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Why? Just when I thought I understood, you put up this trade. On all of your previous pics, you show entry on bar "Following" 2nd rejection. On EU trade, the following bar never reached the close of the subject bar. Please explain. Thanks, Darryl
Hi Darryl,

Based on the price action, bulls looked to weak to make it back to the bullish close being rejected so I took my entry where bulls were struggling. Also it was a good risk to take because I still had enough room for my 20pip stop to be safe, even with that early entry. Also, entry does not have to IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW the rejection bars. Its your best entry...being the one closest to the rejection level.
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #26
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:35am Jun 23, 2016 9:35am
Quoting ooLah
{quote} Hi Darryl, Based on the price action, bulls looked to weak to make it back to the bullish close being rejected so I to my entry where bulls were struggling. Also it was a good risk to take because I still had enough room for my 20pip stop to be safe, even with that early entry. Also, entry does not have to IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW the rejection bars. Its your best entry...being the one closest to the rejection level.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I completely understand your reasoning. However, (imho) you just added a dangerous dimension to a "Rule Based" method... and that is, 'trading what you THINK'. Far too many times, I've had to take losses by letting my opinions pre-empt my strategy. I very rarely give into those urges for these reasons:
• I'm not following my own rules.
• I'm now engaging my EGO in a trade, which sounds a 'Death Knell' to my account, and also putting me in a position of thinking "i Know" what will happen. Then, if the trade looses, my ego is suffering, affecting my trading ability (objectivity) from that point on.

Now, if you choose to add something, like, "In the case of the 2nd rejection being a long wick, then, perhaps, and entry can be made after the wick retraces to subject bars closing price".

Just a suggestion.
  • #27
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:04am Jun 23, 2016 10:04am
Quoting diamonddbw
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ I completely understand your reasoning. However, (imho) you just added a dangerous dimension to a "Rule Based" method... and that is, 'trading what you THINK'. Far too many times, I've had to take losses by letting my opinions pre-empt my strategy. I very rarely give into those urges for these reasons: I'm not following my own rules. I'm now engaging my EGO in a trade, which sounds a 'Death Knell' to my account, and also putting me in a position of thinking "i Know" what will happen. Then, if the trade looses,...
Hi diamonddbw,

I appreciate what you're saying, but despite all the rules that we may have, which guide our trading, we MUST pay attention to what is happening in the market. It's not just I FEEL or I THINK. The market is doing X so based on that I will need to do Y.

No EGO at all. If you examine the trade in question, it was calculated risk. If I enter earlier than the ideal price, how will it affect my risk? Is the risk still ok?

As you trade the method you will realize how strongly price reacts to these rejection levels and how to make appropriate adjustments, which still keeps your risks low and controlled.
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #28
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:52am Jun 23, 2016 10:52am
SHORT NZDJPY...holding this one, to the last bearish close that was rejected on this swing. Risk is 30 pips as it is a daily chart setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SIMPLE7.png Size: 20 KB
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #29
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:55am Jun 23, 2016 10:55am
Missed this one on the USDCAD Daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SIMPLEEG2.png Size: 13 KB
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #30
  • Jun 23, 2016 1:18pm Jun 23, 2016 1:18pm
Are your odds better than 50% win, 50% loss? With this setup, you will need to prove that. With spread and commission, I would guess you will need to be correct at least 55% of the time to see good money but that is really "off the top of my head" number.

Say you are "Going for 1R - 1 risk per reward. I think with spreads, the numbers look like this at 50/50%:

(50% win * 0.9 reward) + (50% loss *-1 loss) = -0.05 per trade expected.

Here is for 53%:
(53% win * 0.9 reward) + (47% loss *-1 loss) = 0.007 per trade expected.

55% is 0.045 per trade expected.

Don't forget your probabilities!
  • #31
  • Jun 23, 2016 1:44pm Jun 23, 2016 1:44pm
Quoting skillz16
Are your odds better than 50% win, 50% loss? With this setup, you will need to prove that. With spread and commission, I would guess you will need to be correct at least 55% of the time to see good money but that is really "off the top of my head" number. Say you are "Going for 1R - 1 risk per reward. I think with spreads, the numbers look like this at 50/50%: (50% win * 0.9 reward) + (50% loss *-1 loss) = -0.05 per trade expected. Here is for 53%: (53% win * 0.9 reward) + (47% loss *-1 loss) = 0.007 per trade expected. 55% is 0.045 per trade expected....
Let's trade it and see skillz16. Good we keep bad we ditch!
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #32
  • Jun 23, 2016 4:18pm Jun 23, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting ooLah
I've set and left another EURUSD short. Risk is 30pips, because its a daily chart setup. Current picture showing today likely to be short day from here onwards. {image}
Stopped at entry
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #33
  • Jun 23, 2016 4:18pm Jun 23, 2016 4:18pm
Quoting ooLah
SHORT NZDJPY...holding this one, to the last bearish close that was rejected on this swing. Risk is 30 pips as it is a daily chart setup. {image}
stopped -30pips
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #34
  • Jun 23, 2016 5:51pm Jun 23, 2016 5:51pm
Re-entered EURUSD short.
Attached Image
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #35
  • Jun 23, 2016 7:23pm Jun 23, 2016 7:23pm
Quoting ooLah
Re-entered EURUSD short. {image}
you need to be more clearer on your rules. what stop to use on daily, 4 hr, 1 hr , charts etc. how many candles can you wait until the trade is no longer valid etc.

also, show some solid results on your live account.
  • #36
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:24pm Jun 23, 2016 8:24pm
Quoting ooLah
Re-entered EURUSD short. {image}
TP +160pips
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #37
  • Jun 23, 2016 8:26pm Jun 23, 2016 8:26pm
Quoting whatfx
{quote} you need to be more clearer on your rules. what stop to use on daily, 4 hr, 1 hr , charts etc. how many candles can you wait until the trade is no longer valid etc. also, show some solid results on your live account.
Hi whatfx,

I shall take your advice re the stop on daily timeframe. The waiting period is not significant. I am still demo to go live in a short while.
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #38
  • Jun 24, 2016 6:31am Jun 24, 2016 6:31am
Beautiful Trade!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gsimple.png Size: 14 KB
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
  • #39
  • Jun 24, 2016 6:44am Jun 24, 2016 6:44am
Yes, very beautiful! Congratulations! I'm trying to understand how to identify the main bar for take the close to do the analisys.
  • #40
  • Jun 24, 2016 7:29am Jun 24, 2016 7:29am
Quoting earmarques
Yes, very beautiful! Congratulations! I'm trying to understand how to identify the main bar for take the close to do the analisys.
Thanks earmarques! The main bar is any BULLISH BAR whose close price is followed by at least 2 failures to close above it OR any BEARISH BAR whose close price is followed by at least two failures to close below it. The next visit to or near the close price will be your entry.
Time it carefully, Plan it thoroughly, Trade it confidently!
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