A note for extreme caution in todays BREXIT vote | Forex Factory

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A note for extreme caution in todays BREXIT vote

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 2:58am Jun 23, 2016 2:46am | Edited 2:58am
Ok we all know it is Brexit day but some of you may not know when the result is expected.

The polls close at 10 PM UK time and depending on how near the result it may be around 5 or 6 AM Friday ..possibly 7 AM.

Possibly the most important consideration is the Exit poll.

During the last election the BBC released its poll after 10PM calling the election very accurately and more importantly totally different than any opinion poll
( leading to Paddy Ashdown's "I'll eat my hat " statement)

The markets seem to favour Remain but if the exit poll did suggest leave then it could be carnage.

The timing of the exit poll is especially important if you trade markets such as index's as some take a break at 10PM and could gap substantially.

I am not telling anyone how to trade but be careful.
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #2
  • Jun 23, 2016 4:19am Jun 23, 2016 4:19am
thanks for your advice.. appreciate it..
Pips Collector EA, No Martingale, No Grid
  • #3
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:21am Jun 23, 2016 6:21am
Quoting steve10%
Ok we all know it is Brexit day but some of you may not know when the result is expected. The polls close at 10 PM UK time and depending on how near the result it may be around 5 or 6 AM Friday ..possibly 7 AM. Possibly the most important consideration is the Exit poll. During the last election the BBC released its poll after 10PM calling the election very accurately and more importantly totally different than any opinion poll ( leading to Paddy Ashdown's "I'll eat my hat " statement) The markets seem to favour Remain but if the exit poll did suggest...

thank you very much steve, but i have already made 400 points going long on cable. i now have a guaranteed stop in place. so i could not care less what the polls show.

i only wish i had traded £1000 per point instead of £50 per point . could have had a good sum of money in my account. such is life.
  • #4
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:40am Jun 23, 2016 6:40am
Quoting whatfx
{quote} thank you very much steve, but i have already made 400 points going long on cable. i now have a guaranteed stop in place. so i could not care less what the polls show. i only wish i had traded 1000 per point instead of 50 per point . could have had a good sum of money in my account. such is life.
Do you have negative protection balance guaranteed by your broker? If we see 10, 20 % cable slump no stops can be guaranteed​. It could be one way market. Any broker who guarantees such stops could go bankrupt by having leveraged retail positions stuck on the wrong side of the market. FXCM, at that time the largest retail broker, almost defaulted on SNB EUR/CHF decision because of negative balance protection. No leveraged position holding is safe during during such huge news event.
  • #5
  • Jun 23, 2016 9:46am Jun 23, 2016 9:46am
Quoting Tom81
{quote} Do you have negative protection balance guaranteed by your broker? If we see 10, 20 % cable slump no stops can be guaranteed​. It could be one way market. Any broker who guarantees such stops could go bankrupt by having leveraged retail positions stuck on the wrong side of the market. FXCM, at that time the largest retail broker, almost defaulted on SNB EUR/CHF decision because of negative balance protection. No leveraged position holding is safe during during such huge news event.
Yeah, exactly. This is the perfect point to make here!

Or, be sure that you have about 300% of your account aside as reserve for negative balance event here. MAYBE you can be slightly safe by having diversified into many other pairs at the same time, but I would not count on it.

It would be nice if we could "hedge" the ultimate downside risk with OTM options - although those right now would still be UBER expensive (if you could even get them). I hope to eventually work my stuff on high leverage with a far OTM option in the mix as insurance.
  • #6
  • Jun 23, 2016 10:36am Jun 23, 2016 10:36am
no need to trade any GBP CROSSES TODAY as an advice >>> just saying
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #7
  • Jun 23, 2016 3:40pm Jun 23, 2016 3:40pm
Bremain 85% just saying
Let me fill my acount wallet then will take Ur advice
  • #8
  • Jun 23, 2016 6:40pm Jun 23, 2016 6:40pm
Inserted Video
  • #9
  • Last Post: Jun 23, 2016 6:43pm Jun 23, 2016 6:43pm
Quoting Tom81
{quote} Do you have negative protection balance guaranteed by your broker? If we see 10, 20 % cable slump no stops can be guaranteed​. It could be one way market. Any broker who guarantees such stops could go bankrupt by having leveraged retail positions stuck on the wrong side of the market. FXCM, at that time the largest retail broker, almost defaulted on SNB EUR/CHF decision because of negative balance protection. No leveraged position holding is safe during during such huge news event.
no, my stop was guaranteed.

well. cable just dropped around 400 points in just a few minutes !! i got stopped out. good thing had a guaranteed stop in place. made enough money anyway.

this is the time time to day trade (or night trade here in the u.k.). what i suggest is you follow the t.v. coverage as of now. watch closely what results come in. cable will jump up if more votes on the remain side come out as and when. . however will drop drastically if more votes come out on the leave side.

so watch the t.v as the results are revealed from each area, the moment a result comes out showing more votes to remain, buy cable immediately. and vice versa.

this is a good time to make tons of money going long or short the cable as and when the results are revealed.


be careful though, the spread is likely to be horrendous. a few minutes ago when cable dropped (because the first set of results came out favouring 'leave') the spread was as wide as 30 points !!

i went long again at 14430, currently up around 160 points ! in just a few minutes ! stop already in place. hope this one tests 1500 again, at which point i have my tp set. the spread was around 20 points. !!!!!

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