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EU Referendum: Exit Poll Leaker For Brexit

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 2:58pm Jun 22, 2016 12:46pm | Edited 2:58pm
The exit poll data costs 500,000 pounds. Many hedge funds have purchased the right to this information so they will be able to place large, semi-imformative bets before the polls are closed. I have a feeling most the movement will occur before the polls close unless we get an extremely split exit poll. So does anyone else think it's possible to get access to this information? If only we could crowd fund the 500k and we all could get access to the exit polls. I will post any findings on here. #ForThePeople

Update: One suggestion I saw from another trader in a chatroom was this:
"Your best bet is going to be to run a screener and look for volume/block buys on the stocks that are likely to be effected. Basically, catch the hedge funds placing their bets.
unless something leaks, by then it will be to late."

So what stocks do we track?

UPDATE: "However, if you're looking for general trends like which stocks to buy for Bremain or Brexit, I can point you in the right direction.
You know that a Brexit will mean a heavy devaluation of the GBP. Like George Soros levels of devaluation. So what this means is stocks that will be hit hardest are UK companies that are most exposed to currency exposure. Try looking for companies that have high UK costs and revenues that come from maybe other currencies (aka export driven). To point you in the right direction, there are several heavily affected companies in the defense and aerospace and automobile sectors."
  • #2
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:37pm Jun 22, 2016 1:37pm
If they will move the market, you won't need the results.
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #3
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:43pm Jun 22, 2016 1:43pm
My more realistic question is this: what is the best way to filter out the "big money trades" vs the "noise"? How do you filter out noise vs fact. My answer would be to track tick charts instead of minute charts. If you were to set the tick charts to 10 ticks and watch the price change every 10 ticks, you'd be able to narrow down the "big money trades" vs the little ones. We want to filter out the noise from the big money trades. If we can't find a leak, what do you guys suggest?

One suggestion I saw from another trader in a chatroom was this:
"Your best bet is going to be to run a screener and look for volume/block buys on the stocks that are likely to be effected. Basically, catch the hedge funds placing their bets.
unless something leaks, by then it will be to late."

So, which stocks will be the most affected in either a Bremain or Brexit scenario.
"Your best bet is going to be to run a screener and look for volume/block buys on the stocks that are likely to be effected. Basically, catch the hedge funds placing their bets.
unless something leaks, by then it will be to late."
  • #4
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:43pm Jun 22, 2016 1:43pm
I thought there were no exit polls at all. According to MarketWatch there wont be any after the stations close. The first indication will probably be just after ~50% of the stations close depending upon how close the numbers are.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/whe...ote-2016-06-21
  • #5
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:45pm Jun 22, 2016 1:45pm
Do you really think that someone knowing the poll result for sure would pile in slowly?
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #6
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:52pm Jun 22, 2016 1:52pm
Quoting Yuri57
Do you really think that someone knowing the poll result for sure would pile in slowly?

No, which is why I asked the second question. It would be a gold mine if we were able to gain access to the exit poll information that many hedge funds have commissioned pollsters for. So how do we filter out the "big money trades" from the "noise trades"? Like another trader has mentioned, we could track these private exit polls through the purchasing or selling of brexit/bremain affected stocks done by hegde funds who paid 500k for this information. We can track volume through stocks but not currency. The question is, what stocks shall we track?
  • #7
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:00pm Jun 22, 2016 2:00pm
I can tell you for 250k
Yeah?! Well.. you know, that's just like.. your opinion man! - Big Lebowski
  • #8
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:03pm Jun 22, 2016 2:03pm
This is an excellent question/thread. This was something that was blatantly happening on "intrade.com." Election results were known (and "traded") hours in advance of any public information. It was a great case study for how markets actually work and it was transparent because it was completely legal.
  • #9
  • Jun 22, 2016 2:27pm Jun 22, 2016 2:27pm
Update:

I received this response on another forum:

"However, if you're looking for general trends like which stocks to buy for Bremain or Brexit, I can point you in the right direction.
You know that a Brexit will mean a heavy devaluation of the GBP. Like George Soros levels of devaluation. So what this means is stocks that will be hit hardest are UK companies that are most exposed to currency exposure. Try looking for companies that have high UK costs and revenues that come from maybe other currencies (aka export driven). To point you in the right direction, there are several heavily affected companies in the defense and aerospace and automobile sectors."
  • #10
  • Jun 22, 2016 3:01pm Jun 22, 2016 3:01pm
The vote will be rigged to the in vote ...I would be very surprised of an out vote .
  • #11
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:13pm Jun 22, 2016 4:13pm
Highest exposed UK stocks to GBP fluctuations:

1FresnilloMining100%
2AntofagastaMining99%
3Rio TintoMining99%
4MondiForestry & Paper98%
5SABMillerBeverages98%
6BHP BillitonMining97%
7Weir GroupIndustrial Engineering97%
8Smith GroupGeneral Industrial96%
9ShirePharmaceutical96%
10Standard LifeInsurance95%
11AggrekoSupport services95%
12IMIIndustrial Engineering94%
13Smith & NephewHealth Care Equipment93%
14AstraZenecaPharmaceutical93%
15GlaxoSmithKlinePharmaceutical91%

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/p...ong-pound.html
  • #12
  • Jun 22, 2016 5:38pm Jun 22, 2016 5:38pm
We just setup pending gbp short orders incase we do get a brexit vote

Short entry at 1.44, 1.42 and 1.41 for a total risk of .85%. the R:R is definitely worth it in our opinion and I think an initial 400 pip buffer should filter out any noise.
  • #13
  • Edited Jun 23, 2016 2:03pm Jun 22, 2016 6:08pm | Edited Jun 23, 2016 2:03pm
Quoting WB.thinkwccm
We just setup pending gbp short orders incase we do get a brexit vote Short entry at 1.44, 1.42 and 1.41 for a total risk of .85%. the R:R is definitely worth it in our opinion and I think an initial 400 pip buffer should filter out any noise.
First of all, make sure you're trading with money you can afford to lose; Slippage will probably kill your account whether you're on the right/wrong side of the market... Second, I can tell you with 70-80% confidence that the GBP is gonna go up, it has broken it's daily downtrend and ready for the big up move....One thing to take into consideration though...GBP/USD volatility increased significantly in the past few months as a result the first few seconds of the news impact could be a quick dip to the downside first to filter out any potential buyers and to trigger stop loss levels, and then quickly rebounds going as planned by the elite (upwards). That's just my humble opinion...Tomorrow is gonna prove me right or wrong....Be cautious, my friend.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance.
  • #14
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:13pm Jun 22, 2016 6:13pm
it will be very close result.Brit will stay.GBP is still going up. NOw 1.48207 at the time of writing.
  • #15
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:14pm Jun 22, 2016 6:14pm
Quoting WB.thinkwccm
We just setup pending gbp short orders incase we do get a brexit vote Short entry at 1.44, 1.42 and 1.41 for a total risk of .85%. the R:R is definitely worth it in our opinion and I think an initial 400 pip buffer should filter out any noise.
Yeah, I think that's the thing to do. The Pound is already up considerably, anticipating a Bremain; so a final vote to stay probably won't be met by an hysterical reaction, probably just a trend continuation. But if the final vote is to leave, the bottom will probably drop out. I've been long GBPAUD since last week, so I've got a cushion.

Good luck,
Rob M.
  • #16
  • Edited Jun 23, 2016 2:06pm Jun 22, 2016 6:30pm | Edited Jun 23, 2016 2:06pm
GBP broken the downtrend (Red) and closed above it....It could go down 400-500 pips though to cover the gap and shake out small traders, but it shouldn't close under the blue line if the intentions of the elite is going up. Enjoy

Note: This ain't your standard trend line by any stretch of imagination, but these lines are showing the true direction of the market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP Daily Trend.JPG Size: 69 KB
Simplicity is the key to brilliance.
  • #17
  • Jun 22, 2016 7:30pm Jun 22, 2016 7:30pm
Quoting WB.thinkwccm
The exit poll data costs 500,000 pounds. Many hedge funds have purchased the right to this information so they will be able to place large, semi-imformative bets before the polls are closed. I have a feeling most the movement will occur before the polls close unless we get an extremely split exit poll. So does anyone else think it's possible to get access to this information? If only we could crowd fund the 500k and we all could get access to the exit polls. I will post any findings on here. #ForThePeople Update: One suggestion I saw from another...
where exactly are you getting your information on "the exit poll data costs 500,000 pounds". Very curious.
  • #18
  • Jun 23, 2016 12:30am Jun 23, 2016 12:30am
going up oh no !!!
onorebate
  • #19
  • Jun 23, 2016 2:25am Jun 23, 2016 2:25am
I have to be honest and say that anyone sitting in here and pontificating over whether or not the GBP is going up or down and how they should trade etc etc is either living in a world consumed by cannabis or they're running a demo account.

The margins have been revised so much that even a £5 per pip bet has to have a margin in excess of £3700 - plus your Stop Loss. With that equating to a stop loss of something like 700 pips (and frankly, if there is an upset, even that may not be enough to save margin calls) that means an account of over £6000 and people could be seriously burned - remember the whipsaw in CHF in Jan last year and that wasn't even a binary decision, it just happened and still moved a couple of hundred points the wrong way before going down almost 3000.

Basically, I suppose I'm saying that I for one am staying well clear of any EUR or GBP trades, or any that are associated - like USDJPY - if you're brave (read: reckless) enough, go for it and bloody good luck to you, I really hope you win, you're a braver man than me. Personally, I'm going to vote Leave but my head says that Remain will probably win and that could push the GBP up to the 1.65 - 1.70 region in a matter of a moments.
  • #20
  • Jun 23, 2016 5:36am Jun 23, 2016 5:36am
Quoting jimko
What a complete load of bollocks this is. There is no such thing. Complete shit. If you believe this crap you will believe anything. The thought of just being able to buy this data for 500k is proposterous. Obviously the media would do this then there would be a massive scandal/expose which would completely ruin the referendum. There is no fucking way this is available to anyone with the money. Maybe, maybe there is a way things are leaked to finance houses but the preposition that any moron with 500k can access this info is complete bollocks. I...
This might be where OP obtained the figure

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7e26d896-2...776a5124d.html
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