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vsa with Malcolm

  • #27,521
  • Jun 22, 2016 6:58am Jun 22, 2016 6:58am
Quoting TEB63
good grief you do not need a scanner BUT you can not trade from one chart either you need at least 3 or you will get killed!!! teb {image}
I reject your premise sir.

As I said, If all charts tell the truth, why would you need more than one?

With that said, I think the best answer lies somewhere in between:

The late-great Robert Krausz of the Fibonacci Trader was a pioneer in the area of multiple time frame analysis. Especially the area of simulating higher time frames on a chart with the use of "dynamic" time frames......

Take a look at the charts below.

First note the time frames: 60 minute and 240 minute. TEB did not mention this, but I am sure he knows the value of using the 1:4 ratio. He uses 15,60(15x4),240(60x4).

The first chart was posted last weekend and it is a 60 minute chart.
The second chart is a 240 minute chart. It is after this week has started, so yes, this is "after-the-fact" analysis. But not really because there's not a lot of analysis going on here. Just showing a concept.

The third chart is again the 60 minute chart, but now it shows all the data up to the point the pic was taken.

Notice that the Chart Mode II indicator is different. It is the actual 240 minute Chart Mode I indicator overlayed the 60 minute chart. Now one can keep his eyes on the 60 minute chart and simultaneously know what the higher time frame trend looks like. Note that two of the tests shown on the original 60 minute chart are also shown on the new 60 minute chart. Both would be valid as Chart Mode I & Chart mode II are green (and price is above the BPL).

Speaking of the BPL, although it is created from data of the actual chart time frame (60 min), it is a simulated higher time frame tool in its own right.

So this is a way to look at more than one time frame but only look at one chart.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,522
  • Edited 2:13pm Jun 22, 2016 8:59am | Edited 2:13pm
Hi HG

good post above.
yes I know the 4/6 to 1 rules for charts

Really good traders can trade off 1 chart. Maybe (!?)
I do not see myself as really good trader but I know my win rate is at least 3X better off 3 charts then 1 chart
In the charts I am posting,
(a) A very easy trade can be seen on the 240m chart on the areas marked Area A and Area B I would take (I did take that trade)
(b) On the 60m chart we see Area C and a great rounding and again a case can easily be make for a trade (I did not take that trade)
So some times 1 chart is all you need for sure!
But not in most cases.


The trade I took this morning was easy because of all the support on all 3 charts
This is the reason Tom the founder of Tradeguilders talks about building a case on at least 3 charts
I like at least 3 signs on all three charts and at least 1 climate action sign

More to this last point as Tom is the founder of VSA (I know he was building on others work) and as the thread is called VSA
I think we need to at least look at what Tom says --- which is in most cases 3 charts--- right

anyways good hunting. always enjoy and read what you post

with the British stuff I am taking very small trades and moving to BE fast

cheers


TEB
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  • #27,523
  • Jun 22, 2016 10:02am Jun 22, 2016 10:02am
Quoting gez40
{quote} Crossfit? trading not painful enough for you
You can't OVER TRADE when you're too sore to even click a mouse.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,524
  • Edited 2:30pm Jun 22, 2016 2:19pm | Edited 2:30pm
Hi HG

I personally do not like the VSA bottom scanner reasons (a) because it just speaks of trend (b) I think price and volume bars are way more to the point (c) I get a better feel for the market from the 3 charts.

Also I am not sure everyone understands --- in fact you are trading on more then one time frame by using the scanner. This is of coarse a wise choice. my 1st post on this issue was because I saw many people using just one time frame. You confuse things a little by using one chart and a number of time frames on that one chart. I totally agree with you that the number of time frames are more important then the number of charts used. Still I personally like both.


But a question I have. What is the MA you are using for trend? VSA uses a 5 SMA. but it looks like you are using a higher MA - but I might well may me wrong.

cheers

teb
  • #27,525
  • Jun 22, 2016 3:37pm Jun 22, 2016 3:37pm
Quoting TEB63
Hi HG I personally do not like the VSA bottom scanner reasons (a) because it just speaks of trend (b) I think price and volume bars are way more to the point (c) I get a better feel for the market from the 3 charts. Also I am not sure everyone understands --- in fact you are trading on more then one time frame by using the scanner. This is of coarse a wise choice.
I actually like the TradeGuider scanner for the very reason that it just speaks to trend. More specifically, finding trend alignment. But I do understand what you mean about price and volume bars being more to he point. Of course their scanner does have the signs of strength and weakness on it as well, so it does somewhat address the price and volume issue.

So as not to confuse anybody, what I showed in that post is just an indicator from a higher time frame placed on the chart, it is not a "Scanner" as such.

Quoting TEB63
my 1st post on this issue was because I saw many people using just one time frame. You confuse things a little by using one chart and a number of time frames on that one chart. I totally agree with you that the number of time frames are more important then the number of charts used. Still I personally like both.
I do agree that multiple time frame analysis is valuable; not for what it gets you into, but what it keeps you at of.

My simple mind just works better with one chart as opposed to multiple charts.

Using higher time frame tools on a lower time frame chart, would seem to be a good "middle ground".


Quoting TEB63
But a question I have. What is the MA you are using for trend? VSA uses a 5 SMA. but it looks like you are using a higher MA - but I might well may me wrong. cheers teb

The Balance Point Line (BPL). It's a 12 period smoothed moving average offset 7 intervals into the future. where the Balance Point = (H+L+C)/3. It's based off of Bill Williams' alligator.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,526
  • Edited 6:57pm Jun 22, 2016 6:18pm | Edited 6:57pm
hi hg


ok got it and its interesting I love to learn what people do and more to the point why,


1. The Balance Point Line (BPL). is not simple .
its also interesting - as it tries to predicts price action were VSA only tries to reacts to price.

2. Tradeguider uses the 5 sma to judge the rounding effects of accumulation and distribution (A/D),
I do not think most people understand this
--- using a real 5sma is in fact better then their indicator they use, as it raps around price better and mimics A/D (see diagram below)
--- where their indicator just flattens and moves the line away from price and is not as easy to read.

3. As to one chart I have also tried it- and I like the idea very much!!!
I had some success (more with bigger trend finders ie 50 sma or 20 rsi)
but I have more success with three charts
--- but to each there own


great taking with you,


cheers

teb
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  • #27,527
  • Jun 27, 2016 5:43am Jun 27, 2016 5:43am
Quoting TEB63
hi hg ok got it and its interesting I love to learn what people do and more to the point why, 1. The Balance Point Line (BPL). is not simple . its also interesting - as it tries to predicts price action were VSA only tries to reacts to price...
I do not predict. I trade the is, not the should be.

Yes, technically the BPL's construction is such that today's BPL number is shifted 7 intervals into the future. Representing where price should be if there was no new information. But my concern is simply whether price is above or below it. If price is above the BPL, the trend is UP. If price is below the BPL, the trend is DOWN.

You are somewhat correct in that it is not that "simple". It it derived from Chaos Theory and brings into play the notion of strange attractors, and other advaced concepts that are far beyond me. But again, what could be more simple than price above equals the trend is UP, and price below equals the trend is DOWN?

I always thought the Diamonds were volatility based. I also seem to remember Gavin saying the best setting was 20.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,528
  • Jun 27, 2016 7:02am Jun 27, 2016 7:02am
Inserted Video


Disappointed.

With all that is going on in the world, and in Europe specifically, this thread should be rockin'.

Where are all the posts?

At the very least, why isn't anybody asking " What did they know, and when did they know it?"?

Check out the charts below.

When the prevailing wisdom was that the "stay" contingent was going to win, we see a Buying Climax followed by a Mark up (in the form of No Buying Pressure).

Not going to say much more than that.

Except:

Disappointed. Once more.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,529
  • Edited 9:27pm Jun 27, 2016 3:15pm | Edited 9:27pm
<p>
Quoting HiddenGap
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUTJCIPsWwE" target="_blank">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUTJCIPsWwE</a> Disappointed. With all that is going on in the world, and in Europe specifically, this thread should be rockin'. Where are all the posts? At the very least, why isn't anybody asking &quot; What did they know, and when did they know it?&quot;? Check out the charts below. When the prevailing wisdom was that the &quot;stay&quot; contingent was going to win, we see a Buying Climax followed by a Mark up (in the form of No Buying Pressure)....
</p



I not sure about everyone else but I am a coward. (lol) I am only now looking at the charts I will start to trade tomorrow (maybe tonight). way too many big player bouncing around for me to follow. I think after the. USA close we will. relatively have a good idea where the big money is.

cheers

teb
  • #27,530
  • Jun 27, 2016 9:09pm Jun 27, 2016 9:09pm
fear and trembling back in lol
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  • #27,531
  • Jun 28, 2016 1:59am Jun 28, 2016 1:59am
Quoting HiddenGap
When the prevailing wisdom was that the "stay" contingent was going to win, we see a Buying Climax followed by a Mark up (in the form of No Buying Pressure).


Hi HG!

I have some questions for ya regarding the importance of the time of a (trading) day.

In the charts you have posted, the time of both the NBP bars, they formed at the same hour (different day). The time is at the last hour of the day, after the US session & probably start of the Australasian session.

In terms of trading the entire Australasian session is not a very important session imo. especially so for an irrelevant pair.

Usually at that hour of the day if you have noticed, historically the activity is not very high (low volume narrow spread).

So are signs appearing at this particular hour important & can be considered part of the sequence? (I usually ignore this hour/bar)

is a no-demand appearing during the Australasian session carry as much weight as much a no-demand during US session? Of course I understand "with weakness in background & stuff" but is weakness during Oz session really weakness?

I hope you get my point, thanks
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,532
  • Jun 28, 2016 5:47am Jun 28, 2016 5:47am
I am trying to get a feel for a post brexit market
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  • #27,533
  • Jun 29, 2016 6:58pm Jun 29, 2016 6:58pm
how many sell signs do you see?
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  • #27,534
  • Jun 29, 2016 8:48pm Jun 29, 2016 8:48pm
Quoting TEB63
how many sell signs do you see? {image}
First, I cheated as I am using my chart. And then I am only looking at the 60 min.

Second, as always, one has to trade what you see. I am sure there are volume differences.

I have noted 2 and half entries.

1: To be honest, I would not actually enter on this Two Bar Reversal (TBR). Although many people would and see TBRs as very strong signs of weakness/strength. Which is is why I have also marked it as a SOW. Note that the second bar of the TBR closes below the BPL.

1': Supply coming in. This is a beautiful entry signal. It is an UP bar that closes well off its high on high volume. Weakness, when it appears, usually appears on UP bars.

2: No Demand/No Buying Pressure. The second nice entry bar. While the volume is less than the previous two bars, the range of the bar may be a bit large for No Demand. So some might see it as No Buying Pressure. Despite the ambiguity about the name, there is no doubt that the bar is weak. It's an UP bar that closes well below its midpoint on decreasing volume. And not just decreasing volume but volume less than the previous two.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,535
  • Jun 30, 2016 4:11am Jun 30, 2016 4:11am
I didn't take this trade as I am in the UsdCad and the AudUsd trades now

but the reason I like 3 charts is its so easily and read the market .
What do you think is happening and going to happen to the NzdUsd
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  • #27,536
  • Jun 30, 2016 11:58am Jun 30, 2016 11:58am
H1.

Failed ETR and TBR at the same time on level where we could expect an end of a corrective move (? - have no experience during such powerful moves).

Hovewer didnt take a position because of long wicks at bar lows which I thought were substantial buying present (High Volume upbars). On the other hand when we apply a fundamental principle that trere should be a substantial result from substantial effort - we see that there is something wrong, there is effort - with no result.

And all this is after "Gotcha" bar - serious (I believe) sign of weakness.

M5

Several signs of weaknes present. I would wait for No Demand (I cant see here any) so maybe the best point of entry was below last Upthrust.

Generally speaking my biggest challenge now is to properly identify Accumulatiuon, Distribution, SOW and SOS. I need a month or so to learn the ropes.
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  • #27,537
  • Jun 30, 2016 12:08pm Jun 30, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting TEB63
I didn't take this trade as I am in the UsdCad and the AudUsd trades now but the reason I like 3 charts is its so easily and read the market . What do you think is happening and going to happen to the NzdUsd {image}
1. Seems to me this is Buying Climax = SOS, start of Accumulation.
2. Test with low volume (No Sellers Present) and next bar up - confirmed Test = SOS.
3. Looks like a shakeout if there were news.

H1.

Failed test then (six bars back):

4. Buyers enter (shakeout?)

4 and 5 - Powerful signs of strength, now we should wait for Tests or No Supply.
  • #27,538
  • Jul 2, 2016 11:35am Jul 2, 2016 11:35am
You can't get volume in Forex!!!!!!

Volume is activity. Yet again, Gavin shows that there is volume in Forex. There is something interesting that he does not mention. Check out my chart below. Note the beautiful Shake Out (SOS) shown and the volume (activity) associated with it at point 1. Now take a look at the interval marked A.

Taking a closer look at A shows an interesting difference between the Forex and the Futures market. On both my chart (FXCM data) and Gavin's spot forex chart (ActivTrades data), the volume at A is higher than the volume on the Shake Out. Whereas on the Futures chart it is not.

But let's take a closer look at A. On the surface this actually appears to be a weak bar. The bar is marked up making a higher high than the previous bar and then closes on its low. It looks like some sort of hidden Up Thrust. We might be thinking that this high volume bar, with portends to weakness, not strength. This is where confirmation plays a role. The very next bar after A closes UP. If A was weakness, then the next bar should have closed DOWN.

The next interval really is the key. It is a DOWN bar on volume less than the previous two intervals, that closes well off its low. This is a Test. Therefore, on the Forex charts, not only is this a test of the Shake Out, but also a test of the high volume that immediately proceeded it (two intervals ago).


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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,539
  • Jul 4, 2016 10:12pm Jul 4, 2016 10:12pm
3 is good usdjpy
teb
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  • #27,540
  • Jul 5, 2016 4:02am Jul 5, 2016 4:02am
Quoting HiddenGap
The bar is marked up making a higher high than the previous bar and then closes on its low. It looks like some sort of hidden Up Thrust. We might be thinking that this high volume bar, with portends to weakness, not strength. This is where confirmation plays a role. The very next bar after A closes UP. If A was weakness, then the next bar should have closed DOWN. The next interval really is the key. It is a DOWN bar on volume less than the previous two intervals, that closes well off its low. This is a Test. Therefore, on the Forex charts, not only...
Thank you for an amazing, enlightening explanation. Reading your posts from hands-on experience imho is better than studying general VSA training material.

Back to charts - it seems that if we join two bars A and B we get sometinng like a high-vol hammer (which I believe is a SOS, or "hidden shakeout" in VSA terms) tested on third bar with a confirmation (of a test) on fourth. Thank you HG!
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