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The Ahaaaaa Moment

  • #21
  • May 21, 2016 8:50pm May 21, 2016 8:50pm
Quoting MasterGuru
It so cool that so many of us have had "Ahaaaa moments"... The next question is: How many of us have manged to make at least an average "Western" professional income ($100k+/year) from these "Ahaaaa moments"....? (I have to admit that I have not, so I am still putting my hours in my professional job...)

Since when does "an average Western professional income" equal $100k+ / year ????
  • #22
  • May 22, 2016 6:54am May 22, 2016 6:54am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} I have backtested EAs with similarly nice "Holy Grail" profit curves for 2015-2016... But these "Ahaaaaa moments" had lasted only until I have included 2012, 2013 and 2014 in those backtests... Those were the shortest ones... The longest one has lasted for about 6 months until my tick-scalper EA was moved from "B-book" to "A-book" by Pepperstone and IC Markets...
Yeah , i have a couple to. But i must say you should look to the average % the EA makes before the disaster , because i have been able to make some money , once the EA makes 100% , withdraw the profits and do this until it blows , if it makes an average 300% before it blows , its fine to do that .
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  • #23
  • Jun 21, 2016 10:28am Jun 21, 2016 10:28am
Quoting RicardoDS
{quote} Yeah , i have a couple to. But i must say you should look to the average % the EA makes before the disaster , because i have been able to make some money , once the EA makes 100% , withdraw the profits and do this until it blows , if it makes an average 300% before it blows , its fine to do that . {image}
I totally agree that is how to trade & manage an EA of this nature. So what if it blows, we had secured 2-3 the profit already.
  • #24
  • Jun 21, 2016 1:08pm Jun 21, 2016 1:08pm
Never had a big 'aha' moment , but rather several small ones that keep adding up, here are some of them not necessarily in chronological order:

  1. Using volatility based stops, instead of one size fits all for different currency pairs
  2. Using $/pip values for position sizing , instead of one size fits all for different currency pairs
  3. systematic back testing of ideas, instead of direct application in the market
  4. reducing position size during draw down
  5. The importance of creating your own trading system
  6. Thinking of Technical Analysis in terms of probabilities, not hard core truths

I am sure, and I hope, for more 'aha' moments to come, but I do no anticipate a big one to come anytime soon

  • #25
  • Jun 21, 2016 2:03pm Jun 21, 2016 2:03pm
Every day has an "aha" moment. Normally, its "aha, so that's why I shouldn't have bought/sold right there", or "aha, I'm such a friggin' moron. I should really find a new hobby....like ping pong".
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #26
  • Jun 21, 2016 6:51pm Jun 21, 2016 6:51pm
Quoting LizardGizzard
Every day has an "aha" moment. Normally, its "aha, so that's why I shouldn't have bought/sold right there", or "aha, I'm such a friggin' moron. I should really find a new hobby....like ping pong".
LOL... Yeah ping pong would have been less expensive. I could've bought the table, the rackets and a whole bunch of balls for a lifetime and still would have lost less money I ever did in forex. I could have bought a nice pool table on top of a ping pong table and still I would have lost less than what I lost in forex!

Daniel
  • #27
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:07pm Jun 21, 2016 8:07pm
I've had many light bulb moments along the way but my biggest light bulb moment came last week. As a result, it has helped my trading tremendously.
  • #28
  • Edited Jun 22, 2016 12:55am Jun 21, 2016 8:26pm | Edited Jun 22, 2016 12:55am
Quoting MasterGuru
{quote} I have backtested EAs with similarly nice "Holy Grail" profit curves for 2015-2016... But these "Ahaaaaa moments" had lasted only until I have included 2012, 2013 and 2014 in those backtests... Those were the shortest ones... The longest one has lasted for about 6 months until my tick-scalper EA was moved from "B-book" to "A-book" by Pepperstone and IC Markets...
have you tried it in the futures market also ?
  • #29
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:53pm Jun 21, 2016 8:53pm
Stopped trying to emulate the success of others and created my own system
Patience is key
  • #30
  • Jun 21, 2016 11:33pm Jun 21, 2016 11:33pm
Turns out trading is more about waiting than it is trading...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #31
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:02am Jun 22, 2016 12:02am
The biggest ahaa moment i've experienced :
search the reality of market behind the chart..
chart is just what world leaders want us to see ..
NUMBERS are reality..
  • #32
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:23am Jun 22, 2016 12:23am
Quoting LizardGizzard
Every day has an "aha" moment. Normally, its "aha, so that's why I shouldn't have bought/sold right there".
Oh so true, well said ...........
  • #33
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:50am Jun 22, 2016 12:50am
EXACTLY as PayTheLimit said

This is true guys, The secret and holy grail is WAITING

If you guys be a dealer or shop owner, Do you buy/sell CARS, CLOTHS, whatever in ANY quoted price or you WAIT to get the cheapest price and sell the maximum ?

Big boys sell in highest price to us, and then they buy from us again with lowest possible price when we are measurable
  • #34
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:55am Jun 22, 2016 12:55am
Quoting Subrina_FX
EXACTLY as PayTheLimit said This is true guys, The secret and holy grail is WAITING If you guys be a dealer or shop owner, Do you buy/sell CARS, CLOTHS, whatever in ANY quoted price or you WAIT to get the cheapest price and sell the maximum ? Big boys sell in highest price to us, and then they buy from us again with lowest possible price when we are measurable
it sounds good but how do you do that on chart ?
  • #35
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:12am Jun 22, 2016 1:12am
Quoting metta87
{quote} it sounds good but how do you do that on chart ?

Sell/Buy at the 50% retrace of any daily pinbar, hammer, shooting star and you will be profitable in long run,

BUT

Sell/Buy at the new daily open price after pinbar, hammer, shooting star and probably you will close your trades mainly with loss or BE after one stressful day sitting and watching the bloody price

*IT MEANS PATIENCE*

------------------------------------------------------------------------

How many times you have seen very strong candle shaping shooting star and pin bar, and you jump in the trade with bare foot, and then couple of seconds/minutes before candle close it was changed and reformed to another form of continuation candle again ?

*IT MEANS PATIENCE*

------------------------------------------------------------------------

How many times you could not touch the mouse and keyboard after opening position and waiting for 1:2 RRR setup and not close the trade with 0.5 RRR ?

*IT MEANS PATIENCE*

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How many times you have placed a trade on trend line when price retraced to the trend line and place the stop below trend line and place the take profit last high/low with RRR more than 1 and not touch that ?

*IT MEANS PATIENCE*

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How many times after breaking trendline you could wait for LAST KISS retracement and not jumping middle of the trade after breaking trendline ?
How many times you could wait for candle close after breaking trendline and don't click the damn mouse early and COUPLE of TIMES before candle close and confirmation ?

*IT MEANS PATIENCE*

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Ahhhaaa moment can be these kind of waiting experience and getting the better price

or could be a given strategy ,

I prefer to share waiting experience with you rather than explaining my own strategy
  • #36
  • Jun 22, 2016 1:17am Jun 22, 2016 1:17am
A live example is NZDUSD daily pin bar righ now

This is the price could give you much better return if you enter short, rather than jumping at market at new daily open price


This sell price 0.7143 gives you much better RRR rather than 0.7114
  • #37
  • Jun 22, 2016 10:01am Jun 22, 2016 10:01am
Quoting Subrina_FX
{quote} Sell/Buy at the 50% retrace of any daily pinbar, hammer, shooting star and you will be profitable in long run, BUT Sell/Buy at the new daily open price after pinbar, hammer, shooting star and probably you will close your trades mainly with loss or BE after one stressful day sitting and watching the bloody price *IT MEANS PATIENCE* ------------------------------------------------------------------------ How many times you have seen very strong candle shaping shooting star and pin bar, and you jump in the trade with bare foot, and then couple...
So what you really need then is patience AND a profitable system in the long run, which according to you will be to Sell/Buy at the 50% retrace of any daily pinbar, hammer, shooting star .Cause you could be patient in taking only the right set ups, but if you do so with a losing system, you ll still fail. So maybe only a profitable system (a true edge) is the holy grail, cause when you get that everything else falls in place in my opininon (MM, RR, patience, etc...)
  • #38
  • Jun 22, 2016 9:22pm Jun 22, 2016 9:22pm
Quoting metta87
{quote} So what you really need then is patience AND a profitable system in the long run, which according to you will be to Sell/Buy at the 50% retrace of any daily pinbar, hammer, shooting star .Cause you could be patient in taking only the right set ups, but if you do so with a losing system, you ll still fail. So maybe only a profitable system (a true edge) is the holy grail, cause when you get that everything else falls in place in my opininon (MM, RR, patience, etc...)


I'm not saying that you are wrong but if you look closer and closer to people have years of experience, they all have one in common :

There is no such thing like holy grail in the market to say buy here and sell there, because market condition changes in nature.

But the thing is watching thousands of thousands the market movement and its reaction to up and down, gives you better clue what MIGHT be but still uncertainty

This is the moment, Money Management comes to play. But again how to manage the money is another problem if you don't have the reliable experience and estimation and knowledge.

I'm not talking about drawing trendline, it takes one day to be master of trendline drawing, what is actually I'm talking about is how the price reacts each of thousands trendlines you have drawn in the past years.

How many of them had false break out and then what happened ?
How many of them broke sharply and continued and then what happened?
How many of them retraced and touched the trendline before expected movement?
How many times you didn't stick to the price and close the trades with 10-20 pips ? and why ?
How many times you did stick to the trade and stayed in the trend with confidence ? and why ?
  • #39
  • Jul 1, 2016 3:23am Jul 1, 2016 3:23am
The ahaaa moment came when I realised what works for someone else won't work for me.

If I am going to do well in this game I am going to have to tailor a method that makes sense to me.

Hours upon days staring at charts watching and thinking, what makes sense to me.

At the end of the day, it's my money im putting up so if im going to lose it, it might as well be by my own mistakes and not that of someone who thinks differently to myself.
  • #40
  • Jul 1, 2016 8:59am Jul 1, 2016 8:59am
My FF-related 'Aha!' was realizing that the net-losing forex traders here have a lot in common with the bucketshop gamblers described close to a century ago. The principles of successful speculation are timeless and so too are the principles of being a sucker.

In 2016, we now have:
- Better access to educational information.
- Many detailed accounts of successful speculators.
- The resources to empirically test and validate concepts.

And yet, we still have:
- Time-tested concepts of speculation being regarded with deep suspicion.
- Idiotic ideas that analyze economic or price data with no regard for market reality.
- Myths and superstitions that denounce empirical testing.
- Selection of information based on emotional appeal.

How could things be any different? People are the way they are not because of Markets. Markets exist because people are the way they are. What was valid centuries ago will continue to be valid for centuries to come.
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