Spider's Den

Forex market pauses ahead of Brexit or Bremain vote - Your capital is at risk
http://www.admiralmarkets.com/analyt...r-bremain-vote

*Your capital is at risk

The EUR/JPY has been consolidating in the bullish pennant for last couple of days. This consolidation is showing a battle between bulls and bears for the next breakout. For trading purpose we have 2 possible scenarios. Twofold scenario is possible due to general downtrend and bullish pennant at L3 support. As the price is generally bearish, we might see a drop from POC zone 117.97-118.20 (H3, DPP, 61.8,EMA89,the top of the pennant) towards 117.50, 117.00 and 116.45. However if we see an upward breakout above 118.25 the price could reach 118.64 and 119.05-20 zone. Watch the correlation table and equities. SP500 will move in correlation with EUR/JPY during NY session.

+60 potential pips now

https://t.co/gmtaEonrlP

Impact Brexit vote on Forex market and wave structure - Your capital is at risk
GBP/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...-2016gu4-1.png
The GBP/USD managed to break the resistance trend line (dotted red) despite the British vote on the EU membership taking place today (Thursday June 23rd). The bullish price action is most likely reflecting a reaction towards the opinion polls. The wave count is highly vulnerable to change depending on the referendum result and market reaction to the event. The first results are expected in the morning of Friday June 24th GMT time.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu1.png
The GBP/USD is in a wave 5 (green), which could expand to higher Fibonacci levels if price breaks above resistance (orange).
EUR/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...-2016eu4-1.png
The EUR/USD bullish bounce at 1.1250 has taken price back to the resistance trend line (red). Bullish candles are now challenging the resistance level but a breakout or bounce could also remain unknown until the results of the British vote (today) are slowly announced in the morning of Friday June 24th (GMT).
1 hour
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The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) for a continuation of wave Y (blue).
USD/JPY
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj4.png
The USD/JPY is moving back and forth between support (green) and resistance (orange). The wave count is highly vulnerable to change depending on the referendum result and market reaction to the event.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj1.png
The USD/JPY will encounter many resistance Fibs if a break above the resistance trend line occurs.
Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

Check how this recording of a live webinar on Tuesday June 21st. It shows how and why I correctly analyzed a EUR/USD short from 1.1340 to 1.1250 and EUR/USD long from 1.1250 to 1.1325.
EUR/USD analyzes starts on min 8:30 and ends at minute 21 - Your capital is at risk

The EUR/AUD has broken through important trend line below 1.5180 and it seems it is targeting 1.4930-00 zone as the first target. A huge uptrend that started from 1.4434 lows ended up with 1.5647 and as commodities got stronger AUD got stronger too. The pair is showing a potential for further shorts towards 1.4800 zone should 1.4895 gets broken. Any pullback towards 1.5130 looks good for new shorts and even on shorter time frames shorting is looking good too. Buyers may appear within the 1.4934-00 zone but because the trend move was strong (to the upside) we might see even a bigger retracement. If we see a move below 1.4800 then the bigger retracement will target 1.4695 zone where we might see stronger buying.

Great British Pound dramatically crashes as U.K. votes for Brexit - Your capital is at risk
GBP/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu4.png
First news reports have confirmed that pro Brexit voters, the people in favour of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union have won the referendum by a slim margin of roughly 51% versus 49%. As the results were announced the Great British Pound took a strong hit as the chances of a Brexit started to rise quickly, as was indicated in the Admiral Markets special Brexit webinars. The GBP/USD has fallen from a 1.50 high in matter of hours to below 1.35, the lowest level seen in decades.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu1.png
The GBP/USD completes the wave 4 (purple) correction. The Brexit vote, not a Fed interest rate hike, has become the market catalyst for the wave 4 and 5 structure to indeed develop.
EUR/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016eu4.png
The European Union would be faced with its first ever member exiting the Union. The EUR/USD is following the GBP/USD weakness, albeit with smaller moves. Here too the bearishness has broken support levels and could mark the completion of wave 4 and the start of wave 5 (blue).
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016eu1.png
The EUR/USD broke below the support trend lines and price is showing strong bearish momentum on the news of the British voters preferring a Brexit.
USD/JPY
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj4.png
The USD/JPY has moved down towards the 50% Fibonacci level which was mentioned throughout the week as the next bearish target. Whether price will manage to break this target and fall towards the 61.8% depends on whether price action will lose or keeps its momentum.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj1.png
The USD/JPY broke the support levels (dotted green) on its fall to 100.

How did you guys go with the brexit? Pretty nasty situation tbh.
Also how do you deal with gaps? I always question myself when gaps appear. cheers

How Brexit will impact trading

Yeah, very shocking result indeed. Please read above. Any questions are welcome ofc.

Further GBP weakness expected by Fibs and wave structure - Your capital is at risk
GBP/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu4.png
The GBP/USD took a strong hit and made a nose dive from 1.50 to 1.32 when the Brexit results were released. The first target of the wave C (green) has been hit and reached but further bearish pressure could mean an extension to the next Fibonacci 127.2% target at 1.25.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu1.png
The GBP/USD seems to building a 5 wave structure (blue) within the wave 5 of the 4 hour chart. Wave 4 (blue) respected the 50% Fibonacci level. A push above the 78.6% invalidates the wave 4. A break below the support trend line (green) could start the wave 5 (blue). A larger wave 4 consolidation where price goes sideways is also possible.
EUR/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016eu4.png
The EUR/USD broke the support trend lines (dotted) upon the British electorate voting for Brexit last week. Price tumbled from 1.14 to 1.09 before retracing back to the 50%. The most likely wave count would suggest a wave 1-2 (green) within a wave 5 (purple) breakout. The wave 5 becomes invalidated if price were to break above the 100% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016eu1.png
The EUR/USD seems to be building a bullish zigzag (brown) correction within wave 2 (green). A break of the support trend line (green) could mark the completion of that wave 2.
USD/JPY
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj4.png
The USD/JPY has moved down towards and bounced at the 50% Fibonacci level. Price could bounce at this Fib or fall towards the 61.8%.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj1.png
The USD/JPY is building a bullish zigzag (pink) within wave B (green).
Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

The GBP/USD fell sharply making 30 year lows(!) due to Brexit referendum result. We shouldn't be shocked with the price movements as it went in according with our pre fact analysis and expectations. Another thing to pay attention is that the market follows our updated and early market analysis but we need to be very careful and not blindly short the pair just because everyone is doing that.
Technically BOE intervened around 1.3225 level so at this point 1.3225 is the barrier towards 1.3000- psychological support. The range has been huge (as the pound kept dropping during Brexit referendum voting) so technically we want to see a retracement. We have 3 zones where the price might possibly react. The first zone (red line resistance) is 1.3470-80 and the price might drop from there without any retracement if equities start to get bearish. POC1 is 1.3620-50 zone (retail gap, 23.6) while deeper retracement POC2 goes to 1.4120-50 (H3,EMA89,50.0). POC2 should be eyed only if BOE intervenes as the price flow is unlikely to reach it without a CB intervention. Only below 1.3225 we can expect 1.3170 and 1.3000.

Lower low on GBP/USD challenges 1.30 round level - Your capital is at risk
http://www.admiralmarkets.com/analyt...30-round-level

Forex market sees ‘dead cat’ bounce initiate wave-C zigzag - Your capital is at risk
http://www.admiralmarkets.com/analyt...-wave-c-zigzag

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The USD/CAD has dropped from important historical resistance and it was shown live on a previous Session Recap webinar. Currently the price is at important support and it will be either make it or break it for the pair. 1.2980-95 is POC zone (L3, EMA89, 61.8, trend line) and it making an X Cross with ascending intra week trend line (blue). If we see a rejection from POC and 4h close above 1.3010, the targets will be 1.3030, 1.3060 and 1.3100. However if the price drops below 1.2975 it should target 1.2946, 1.2920 and 1.2880. Pay attention to price flow and eventual bounce or break below POC zone.

looks very indecisive right now. will keep an eye on that in the early morning

Rising wedges signal completion of wave-C zigzag in Forex - Your capital is at risk
EUR/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016eu4.png
The EUR/USD has broken long-term support levels (dotted green) but still has important and decisive horizontals levels to break before a wave 5 (blue) of wave C (purple) can be confirmed. For the moment a wave 1-2 (green) structure makes the most sense considering the bearish momentum in wave 1 and the corrective reaction in wave 2.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016eu1.png
The EUR/USD has built a bullish channel (orange/green) after breaking several resistance levels (dotted lines). All in all the angle of this channel remains shallow and hence corrective and looks like a rising wedge chart pattern. A break above the channel should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.
GBP/USD
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu4.png
The GBP/USD is building a bear flag (green lines) chart pattern, which has bearish implications and expects a continuation of the downtrend. A break below support could see price continue with its bearish momentum towards the next Fibonacci target.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016gu1.png
A GBP/USD break above the channel should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.
USD/JPY
4 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj4.png
The USD/JPY is behaving correctively as it moves away from the bottom of the downtrend channel. This makes a wave B (green) the most likely scenario at the moment. Price would need to break above the 100% Fib level before waves Y (blue/brown) can be considered completed.
1 hour
https://fxmedia.s3.amazonaws.com/art...06-2016uj1.png
The USD/JPY is building a rising wedge (red/green) chart pattern, which has bearish implications. A break above the pattern should see price stop at the Fibonacci retracement levels whereas a break below the support (green) should spark the breakout if the bears can keep control with good candle closes near the low.
Follow @ChrisSvorcik on twitter for latest market updates

The USD/CHF had made the double top pattern after rejecting resistance where we see historical vs now moment sellers (blue rectangles). Currently we see a downward movment on the pair towards 0.9718 as the first target. If we see breakout or 4h candle close below 0.9718 next target is 0.9670 zone followed by 0.9640. Pullbacks towards POC 0.9795-0.9820 (H3, now moment sellers, double top, 78.6) could be used for short setups as long as H4 - 0.9870 holds.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD breakout below bearish chart patterns - Your capital is at risk
http://www.admiralmarkets.com/analyt...chart-patterns