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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,521
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:59pm Jun 20, 2016 4:59pm
Basically, now in thumb twiddling mode until post-Brexit ... . I have one SPX IC still on that I should be able to take off tomorrow in small profit, assuming we don't have a repeat of last night's movement ... . I'll then just have some short GLD on and some VXX plays ... . Most I've been in cash since last July; I don't like it, but it's probably the smart thing to do ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,522
  • Jun 20, 2016 6:18pm Jun 20, 2016 6:18pm
Did the Mexicans lay down? The midfielders were just jogging...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,523
  • Jun 20, 2016 6:52pm Jun 20, 2016 6:52pm
polls show a dead heat but markets continue to rally, complacent....setting up for a massive Brexit surprise and a ginormous volatility spike ....(as if)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,524
  • Jun 20, 2016 6:55pm Jun 20, 2016 6:55pm
Quoting The Fool
polls show a dead heat but markets continue to rally, complacent....setting up for a massive Brexit surprise and a ginormous volatility spike ....(as if) {image}
I was on that same web page. If you look on the bottom right, there is a survey. Click on 'results'.
  • #13,525
  • Jun 20, 2016 7:22pm Jun 20, 2016 7:22pm
Quoting peterdrill
I was on that same web page. If you look on the bottom right, there is a survey. Click on 'results'.
I did not find that. However, at the extreme bottom right, I see tha The Financial Times is "a Nikkei Company".....

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,526
  • Jun 20, 2016 7:34pm Jun 20, 2016 7:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}I did not find that. However, at the extreme bottom right, I see tha The Financial Times is "a Nikkei Company"..... https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
Hit 'Full Brexit Coverage' on the same page. It will then take you here.......................http://www.ft.com/eu-referendum

Then check the survey results on the bottom right "Will the EU unravel if Britain leaves?"
  • #13,527
  • Jun 20, 2016 8:16pm Jun 20, 2016 8:16pm
Quoting peterdrill
{quote} Hit 'Full Brexit Coverage' on the same page. It will then take you here.......................http://www.ft.com/eu-referendum Then check the survey results on the bottom right "Will the EU unravel if Britain leaves?"
Residents and Citizens of the UK mostly in favor of sovereignty. That's to say if you block out all the press and media. Speaking to locals; mostly in favor. But many strong influential people (Soros / Hong Kong's richest man and others not to name) are trying hard to brainwash the middle and lower class. These tactics usually work in their favor and come poll day, people panic and do the unthinkable. I was until today believing that the Brexit was in favor, but I believe bureaucracy will win (unfortunately).

This being another reason why I will be in straddles come tomorrow.
  • #13,528
  • Jun 20, 2016 8:50pm Jun 20, 2016 8:50pm
I never thought it had a chance.....even if the poll results are pro Brexit, the will of the people would be subverted by the billionaires. Really feels to me like the vol spike, such as it was, occurred last week....now a done deal and the vote day will be an anticlimax. Poor TF gets fucked once again...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,529
  • Jun 20, 2016 9:00pm Jun 20, 2016 9:00pm
Quoting The Fool
I never thought it had a chance.....even if the poll results are pro Brexit, the will of the people would be subverted by the billionaires. Really feels to me like the vol spike, such as it was, occurred last week....now a done deal and the vote day will be an anticlimax. Poor TF gets fucked once again...
Bloomberg now has chance Brexit at 37%. http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-brexit-watch/

Markets have already reacted yesterday, and maybe slightly more between now and afterwards. Next quarterly earnings coming up, I see much resistance and bearish signals. Their really isn't much else keeping the markets up as they are presently.
  • #13,530
  • Jun 20, 2016 9:26pm Jun 20, 2016 9:26pm
Hey guys,

Everyone still alive after the VXX crash yesterday? Don't blow your brains out just yet... it's not over till the fat lady sings

Just bought me an N225 15000 / 17000 strangle for about $5.5k (ouch). Current price is about 16000. Expires Aug-10. Between now and then we have:

1) EU referendum (of course)
2) Japan's upper house elections on Jul-10
3) FOMC on Jul-27

If the index doesn't break 15000 or 17000 during all that excitement then... I'll probably give up trading and become a monk. She moves 1000 points in a few days when she's in the mood. My only concern is that any relief rally in the case of "Bremain" might be tempered until the Japanese elections are sorted. But I'll probably cash it in anyway if we get a good move after the referendum.

Good luck everyone
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,531
  • Jun 20, 2016 10:20pm Jun 20, 2016 10:20pm
^^^ and another concern is that the BOJ intervene if it drops too fast in the case of Brexit, thereby keeping it rangebound.

Shit... what have I done?
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,532
  • Jun 20, 2016 10:24pm Jun 20, 2016 10:24pm
Quoting peterdrill
I see much resistance and bearish signals. Their really isn't much else keeping the markets up as they are presently.
IDK about that...there's nowhere else to go for any kind of yield except equities, & CB's are falling over each other to backstop any threats. There will have to be some kind of exogenous event to spook the markets ... the Brexit threat is likely a done deal. Promise of sweet vol soon to be a memory. I will likely just cash in what's left of my accounts and buy lotto scratch tickets, more my speed anyway......been nice knowing ya'll......
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,533
  • Jun 20, 2016 10:26pm Jun 20, 2016 10:26pm
neverending bull market is such a bore....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,534
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:14am Jun 21, 2016 12:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}IDK about that...there's nowhere else to go for any kind of yield except equities, & CB's are falling over each other to backstop any threats. There will have to be some kind of exogenous event to spook the markets ... the Brexit threat is likely a done deal. Promise of sweet vol soon to be a memory. I will likely just cash in what's left of my accounts and buy lotto scratch tickets, more my speed anyway......been nice knowing ya'll......
Let me know when you win the lottery so that I can stand outside with my golf clubs, when lightning strikes in the vicinity. I too agree; staying on the sidelines for now.
  • #13,535
  • Jun 21, 2016 2:29am Jun 21, 2016 2:29am
do or die now for the ^VIX....only a scare around the brexit vote, or a brexit outcome itself, could do the trick....20/20 hindsight, but man, I can't believe I let that slip thru my hands....shell shocked now....jeezus, live and learn, right?....you only get so many heart beats though.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,536
  • Jun 21, 2016 2:48am Jun 21, 2016 2:48am
Quoting The Fool
do or die now for the ^VIX....only a scare around the brexit vote, or a brexit outcome itself, could do the trick....20/20 hindsight, but man, I can't believe I let that slip thru my hands....shell shocked now....jeezus, live and learn, right?....you only get so many heart beats though..... {image}
Yeah right. Yesterday is history and tomorrow is a mystery. Not sure which side of the fence to be on for the next few days. Puzzling; and I don't like to be puzzled.
  • #13,537
  • Jun 21, 2016 3:43am Jun 21, 2016 3:43am
Quoting The Fool
do or die now for the ^VIX....only a scare around the brexit vote, or a brexit outcome itself, could do the trick....20/20 hindsight, but man, I can't believe I let that slip thru my hands....shell shocked now....jeezus, live and learn, right?....you only get so many heart beats though..... {image}
Don't despair yet TF, you might still get paid on Friday for all your hard work. I spoke to my Mum in the UK on Sunday and she said that everyone she knows is voting "out", apart from my brother's family. And believe me, she knows a lot of people! The caveat is that most of her friends are old, and most read the Daily Mail. Nuff said. But I can't help feeling it's gonna be close.

Personally I prefer the "in" option (even though I don't spend much time there anymore) so I don't care if my VXX options fall flat. But I know you've got a hell of a lot more than I, and how hard you've been working on them, so I will feel for you if things don't work out.

Not sure what else to say right now. Shit happens? But let's wait and see.
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,538
  • Jun 21, 2016 6:14am Jun 21, 2016 6:14am
Quoting NorthTrader
Not sure what else to say right now. Shit happens? But let's wait and see.
Thanks mate, shit happens indeed.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,539
  • Jun 21, 2016 9:58am Jun 21, 2016 9:58am
Quoting NorthTrader
Hey guys, Everyone still alive after the VXX crash yesterday? Don't blow your brains out just yet... it's not over till the fat lady sings Just bought me an N225 15000 / 17000 strangle for about $5.5k (ouch). Current price is about 16000. Expires Aug-10. Between now and then we have: 1) EU referendum (of course) 2) Japan's upper house elections on Jul-10 3) FOMC on Jul-27 If the index doesn't break 15000 or 17000 during all that excitement then... I'll probably give up trading and become a monk. She moves 1000 points in a few days when...
Doing a lot of thumb twiddling here ... . Got out of one of those short GLD spreads here for a little beer money. Left one on. Market denied me my exit on my last SPX monster by a hair, but I figure I have a whopping two days left to pull if off if I start to fill my pants (SPX looks kinda pinned against 2085-ish, sideways chop as the market awaits Brexit, which works fine for the setup).

Out of my UNG covered call for a small loss; got tired of looking at it, to be honest ... . That trade belongs in my long-term covered call portfolio, where I could give a rip if it takes a year to work out ... . Here, though, gets in the way ... .

VXX (gives two ginormous middle fingers up) ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,540
  • Jun 21, 2016 10:10am Jun 21, 2016 10:10am
This Brexit crap is feeling like the run up to the first FOMC hike ... . At this point, just want to see the back end of it, whatever the outcome ... .

Out of boredom, looked at some Dough trader trades ... . Looking like they're largely just carrying on in a somewhat oblivious fashion to the possible rip and/or dip that will occur post-referendum and the possible continuation in movement that will follow (either (a) new ATH's or (b) 1800 SPX). Then again, would make for pretty boring fare if they said, "We're just going to flatten these couple of weeks in here; not put on any trades; and just thumb twiddle ... ." Although I did notice that Katie bailed out of a ton of futures positions earlier this week ... .

I will say one thing -- that Goddamn Tom Preston and his once a month SPY short put ... . Ridiculous how that's working out for him ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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