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  • #6,001
  • Jun 17, 2016 7:56pm Jun 17, 2016 7:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i am saying its valid. it probably would take a world upset to get there. look at a month uj chart pre 2008. note a year before in june 2007 what the yen did. note what june 2015 what the yen did. note what happened 1 year later in july 2008 (worldwide economy). that move missed 68.09 target. courtesy of boj manipulation. manipulation is still present but yet the yen strengthens .. boj has lost its affect.. meanwhile the fed is trying to prevent disaster on a world scale by not raising. the fed has a double edge sword, not raising raises...
Let's see if they intervene next week. I reckon they will but only after Brexit news.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ja...-idUSKCN0Z304H
  • #6,002
  • Jun 18, 2016 10:37am Jun 18, 2016 10:37am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Let's see if they intervene next week. I reckon they will but only after Brexit news. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ja...-idUSKCN0Z304H
they are already intervening each and every week, so is the ecb. its current policy. the question is why is the current intervening not working, as they planned. sure they could intervene further, in added newer policy. but what guarantees it will work? in the current policy the effect is, the yen has gained ground the last year. adding to the same policy may not yield what they expect. it may go opposite of their intention. like it has done a year now.. as a funding currency, it has a point where easing will yield a opposite effect through redemptions. that opposite effect can weaken exports, instead of the intended strengthening. easing is liquid like water, it will seek a equilibrium level.

the yen (uj) was manipulated to 125, since it has dropped. it has dropped even as usd raised. it has dropped, even as more boj easing, was in effect. doing more of the same, and expecting a different result? the yen strengthening is only causing japan manufactures to drop prices, to compete on exports. it's only cutting into profit margins. dropping exporters outlook, pressuring asian equities. in turn causing more funding currencies to return home. placing demand on those currencies through redemptions. a drop in equities speeds the process.. if s/p 2013 levels are coming, then uj can drop very fast. tech wise 68.09 is valid.. getting there would be hard, unless some sort of world meltdown comes. one is coming, one is always coming. the timing part is the question needing a answer. money will follow cheaper energy, with a stable government, with a qualified workforce. 2013 s/p levels are not so bright. but it is much brighter than equities in countries w/o energy. such as japan, europe or china. or anyone selling them commodities
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #6,003
  • Jun 18, 2016 1:01pm Jun 18, 2016 1:01pm
Brexit poll after the Jo Cox murder. Majority of seniors would probably be categorized within the phone poll I'm thinking. Still closer than what the media is reporting.

Attached Image
  • #6,004
  • Jun 19, 2016 3:17am Jun 19, 2016 3:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} they are already intervening each and every week, so is the ecb. its current policy. the question is why is the current intervening not working, as they planned. sure they could intervene further, in added newer policy. but what guarantees it will work? in the current policy the effect is, the yen has gained ground the last year. adding to the same policy may not yield what they expect. it may go opposite of their intention. like it has done a year now.. as a funding currency, it has a point where easing will yield a opposite effect through...
I am looking for a good trade opportunity to arise next week. Not sure if one will arise or not but I got no open positions at the moment and am waiting for a good opportunity for a good trade. Will be interested to see what you see as good for this coming week. I was thinking we may drop to 1800-1900 this summer and then rally back the last 3 months of this year
  • #6,005
  • Jun 19, 2016 3:12pm Jun 19, 2016 3:12pm
Quoting ceetee
{quote} Possible double top on the weekly plus hammer and inverted hammer. In my opinion they don't believe in a Brexit and euro and pound will rise. EG could be down much lower on Friday.
A brexit won't be so simple to carry out. If there is one, it'll take around 2 years for it to actually take place. Nothing will change on 24th June. In that two years the UK and the other EU members have to agree on how the UK will exit, lots of voting in the EU parliament, majority have to agree etc.

A brexit could also trigger a general election if David Cameron's conservative party lose faith in him and force him, the Prime Minister to resign.
The general election could come as soon as in a few months, possibly in October, one month before the US elections, so again the UK causing movement in markets.

If there is no general election, David Cameron could come back with a better deal from the EU, after having spooked the EU, as the UK is an important trading partner and 5th biggest economy in the world. Fearing more countries leaving the EU, it could really shake-up the politics of the union to keep the members happy. Then there could be another EU Referendum to 're-join' the EU, as the UK have not really left within two years.

During the two years the Prime Minister, MPs, Parliament can also over turn and make the exit vote null and void if some strange or big event occurs.

If the UK during the two years looks more and more likely that they will remain out, then the Scottish National Party can ask for another Scottish Referendum, as they want to leave the UK but remain in the EU. This ends with the UK smaller and out of the EU.

Lots can happen yet, this current Referendum is just the beginning...
  • #6,006
  • Jun 19, 2016 7:04pm Jun 19, 2016 7:04pm
nice rally on GU...
  • #6,007
  • Jun 19, 2016 8:41pm Jun 19, 2016 8:41pm
Quoting Wavves
Brexit poll after the Jo Cox murder. Majority of seniors would probably be categorized within the phone poll I'm thinking. Still closer than what the media is reporting. {image}
Who will be the next scapegoat for their dirty business? World lost a valuable life
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #6,008
  • Jun 19, 2016 8:54pm Jun 19, 2016 8:54pm
First day of third quarter futures trading and we are up big time. DAX and US indexes are up big time this morning. Short squeeze by FED and EU to squeeze shorts out??
  • #6,009
  • Jun 19, 2016 9:16pm Jun 19, 2016 9:16pm
looking to risk 7 on a 1388ish eu short, tp 1342 spread =-+, scalp.. uj 105.59 area test, looking for a short
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #6,010
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:28pm Jun 19, 2016 11:28pm
Good Morning !

Today's SR levels on MT4 Templates for EURO, CABLE, DAX, USDJPY & EURGBP
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #6,011
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:32pm Jun 19, 2016 11:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
looking to risk 7 on a 1388ish eu short, tp 1342 spread =-+, scalp.. uj 105.59 area test, looking for a short
eu getting into that R now.. au looking for a s scalp 7448/49* maybe,, just looking since eu is near 1388 also
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #6,012
  • Jun 20, 2016 2:49am Jun 20, 2016 2:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} eu getting into that R now.. au looking for a s scalp 7448/49* maybe,, just looking since eu is near 1388 also {image}
What do you think of DAX gains for today? Will hold for this week?
  • #6,013
  • Jun 20, 2016 4:59am Jun 20, 2016 4:59am
Quoting gatorinla
looking to risk 7 on a 1388ish eu short, tp 1342 spread =-+, scalp.. uj 105.59 area test, looking for a short
FWIW...1388 is 150% of last weeks range...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #6,014
  • Edited 6:22am Jun 20, 2016 5:06am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting cspip
{quote} Haven't been following AU much, could go down for some, but also expecting to go back to 0.7433...
After 0.7433, expecting more up for AUDUSD to around 0.7500

Quoting cspip
{quote} After 50 pip drop from 1.1264, seems to going for ~1.1370 now...
and after 1.1370, more up for EU to 1.1428.......though first could be 1.1262 / 1.1240
  • #6,015
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:11am Jun 20, 2016 5:11am
missed a decent short in EY, but I might try again if it makes it way back up there, seems like decent R up that way...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #6,016
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:12am Jun 20, 2016 5:12am
buying the mid in the AUD seems like a nice play, now that last weeks high was taken...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #6,017
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:19am Jun 20, 2016 5:19am
something I might consider in USDCAD...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #6,018
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:21am Jun 20, 2016 5:21am
was looking to maybe short GJ, but it blew through my area like cheese....maybe some longs there now if I get a chance...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #6,019
  • Jun 20, 2016 5:23am Jun 20, 2016 5:23am
that's all I gots that looks interesting, good luck this week...PTL..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #6,020
  • Jun 20, 2016 6:48am Jun 20, 2016 6:48am
Quoting cspip
{quote} A brexit won't be so simple to carry out. If there is one, it'll take around 2 years for it to actually take place. Nothing will change on 24th June. In that two years the UK and the other EU members have to agree on how the UK will exit, lots of voting in the EU parliament, majority have to agree etc. A brexit could also trigger a general election if David Cameron's conservative party lose faith in him and force him, the Prime Minister to resign. The general election could come as soon as in a few months, possibly in October, one month...
Hmmm. Fascinating reading. Very enlightening
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