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vsa with Malcolm

  • #27,501
  • Jun 14, 2016 9:18am Jun 14, 2016 9:18am
Both Tom & Wyckoff talk about effort & result of effort.
It took me ages to realize what they mean. I rely more on that rather than test bars. All my trades are done with triggers ie. sell stop or buy stop.

Now on with this chart:

A: should point to the down bar after the shake out bar. It is more appropriate. I personally call that Pent up demand in a preliminary shake out.
B: I ignore test bars, in the main. (my personal bias).
C: tells me more of what is going on. Massive buying into a down bar, next bar closes up with "ease" ie. it needs very little relative effort to rise... This in the main is bullish imho.
I would stay long as "effort to rise" is in play, since the demand bar (A) is confirmed demand already.

Have fun.. Mr Market is a very exact & precise animal once you get to know his ways.
VSA & Wyckoff will show you that.
  • #27,502
  • Jun 14, 2016 9:38am Jun 14, 2016 9:38am
Nice post Frank, if you could contribute more towards this would be very nice ! Could you possibly post a chart with better explanation of E vs R approach ? Or the trades you took using this
  • #27,503
  • Jun 15, 2016 7:50am Jun 15, 2016 7:50am
There is a webinar from Jan 4, 2010. If you are unable to join the VSAclub then I'm sure you can search around and find the webinar on the interwebs.

On that webinar from Jan 4 between the 34 minute mark till the 39 minute mark, Tom Williams talks about effort vs result. He makes 2 comparisons, the first being a test and says that the test is an effort and if the next "bar or 2" is down then the result is the market is weak and liable to come off. The 2nd comparison is to a wide spread up bar through an old high, which he calls "a big effort" then talks about if the market comes down on low volume and continues to rise off the low volume down move then that is effort vs result.

Basically Tom is saying that the VSA principles are effort and how the market reacts to them is the result.

Tom has repeated over not to be to clever with the market, so don't read more into this that whats there. Find a trend and trade the principles, if the result isn't there then get out quickly, if the result is there then ride that beast for all its worth.
  • #27,504
  • Jun 15, 2016 9:01am Jun 15, 2016 9:01am
A: Potential Stopping volume
B: Down bar on low volume
C: Up bar on increasing volume (but not excessive volume)
D: Down bar on low volume
E: Up bar on increasing volume (volume is a bit high but its still lower than A)
F: Low volume up bar ( Not good for higher prices)
G&H: Market falls from bar F
I: Shakeout back into Potential stopping volume

Long from 1.4170, as market moves in our favor it allows us to reduce our risk.

After we see potential buying, we are looking to see that the down bars are reducing volume showing that sellers have left the market, we want to see up bars increasing in volume (but not excessive volume!!!) to show buyers continuing to enter the market.

Place your stop losses like a scalper and set your profits like your a swing trader.
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Trust the Market
  • #27,505
  • Jun 15, 2016 9:24am Jun 15, 2016 9:24am
Trade went 20 pips my direction, but I was stopped out at BE.

I set the trade to BE after 10 pips or so, and stopped paying attention to the trade. After the fact its easy to see that Bar A went up into the low of the climatic bar with low volume, then we had Bar B down bar increasing in volume.
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Trust the Market
  • #27,506
  • Jun 15, 2016 11:06am Jun 15, 2016 11:06am
There is one thing I must explain about tests. When they work they are great. I would distinguish between "clean" tests & "messy" test results. When they are clean, there is a nice clear & consistent result. ie. the market goes long in a bar or 2, or don't forget!! fails & goes short. I messed up for a long time thinking that all test bars are bullish!

There is one caveat that is not explained clearly about "effort to rise" (or fall). Yes, in a lot of cases it retraces with diminished volume. However, the untold secret is that the market retraces in order to find support. sometimes with low volume & sometimes with high volume.. The high volume traps & absorbs the "effort". So on the long side, eg. the high volume down bars are strength coming in to countermand the "effort" to rise.. give the move support & enable the trend to continue.. upwards...
I prefer to look for some sort of demand appearing near the base of the fast rising bar, after it has retraced. It tends to stop the move & get it back into trend after that.

Just some quick observations.
  • #27,507
  • Jun 16, 2016 12:12am Jun 16, 2016 12:12am
I see a lot of "effort" being made here to understand the concept, allow me to clear the air.

You know its easy to understand with pictorial illustrations.

Attached Image


Attached Image


The NRFE you see in the above charts stands for "No Result From Effort"

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here in the above charts you could see tests after effort to rise (ETR).

if you have any questions, please post em here & I shall answer, thank you.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #27,508
  • Jun 16, 2016 4:04am Jun 16, 2016 4:04am
VCV 13
Nice chart post. You understand the concept very clearly.
Your 3rd chart is particularly good in explaining "effort to rise".
In your 2nd chart, I agree with your "failed effort to rise"... I there after call it the "effort to fall" bar as "effort is needed to push back below any effort to rise. Tom tells us this many times... it takes "effort" to get through resistance points, long or short.

Thanks for taking the time to post & share.
  • #27,509
  • Jun 18, 2016 2:40pm Jun 18, 2016 2:40pm
IT'S ALIVE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nice to see some volume (volume is activity ) back in this thread.

The market is always testing. The importance of tests, can not be de-emphasized. In fact, test may well be the single most important aspect of VSA to understand. This is in part due to the fact that VSA was initially created to trade stocks. And stocks are be definition biased to go up. Moreover, many stock traders are not actually able to trade short.

Please don't mistake that to mean the Ultra High Volume bars mean less or nothing. When elephants walk across your front lawn, they leave footprints. On a price chart those footprints are akin to Ultra High Volume. But most of your "entry signals" appear on low volume tests. In other words, the Ultra High Volume bar alerts us to the activity of the Smart Money in the market; while the Test alters us to the ideal time to get into the market.

Inserted Video
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,510
  • Jun 19, 2016 6:06am Jun 19, 2016 6:06am
Quoting HiddenGap
IT'S ALIVE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nice to see some volume (volume is activity ) back in this thread.
Hi HG! Is your image from the newest Tradeguider? If yes, do you have any experience with their market scanner?
  • #27,511
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:03am Jun 19, 2016 11:03am
The weekly trend is still up for the EUR ahead of brexit still not making any positions until i start to see apparent weakness. Daily chart choppy at this point by london open should start to give some clarity
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  • #27,512
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:25am Jun 19, 2016 11:25am
Quoting TwoBooks
{quote} Hi HG! Is your image from the newest Tradeguider? If yes, do you have any experience with their market scanner?
Thank you for the compliment. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I set out to create a Tradeguider-esque looking chart with the signs of strength and weakness turned off. It is not Tradeguider. So I can not speak on scanner, except to say that the concept seems pretty powerful. The trend is not just your friend; it's your lover. Therefore, being able to quickly determine the trend on multiple instruments and on multiple time frames ought to be of some benefit.

On the other hand:

A chart never lies. And if A chart never lies, then ALL charts tell the truth. And if ALL charts tell the truth, why do you need more than one?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #27,513
  • Jun 19, 2016 11:50am Jun 19, 2016 11:50am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Thank you for the compliment. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I set out to create a Tradeguider-esque looking chart with the signs of strength and weakness turned off. It is not Tradeguider. So I can not speak on scanner, except to say that the concept seems pretty powerful. The trend is not just your friend; it's your lover. Therefore, being able to quickly determine the trend on multiple instruments and on multiple time frames ought to be of some benefit. On the other hand: A chart never lies. And if A chart never lies, then...
Yes, a good point.

I am just lazy/curious, some time ago I've heard good words about scanner, and the idea looks very promising, so I would like to check how it works in reality before I buy.

A little green square at bottom right tells me that this is Sierra, isn't it?

Yea I see now, TG has diamonds, you have some kind og weighted/displaced moving average (?)
  • #27,514
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:31am Jun 21, 2016 8:31am
good grief
you do not need a scanner
BUT
you can not trade from one chart either
you need at least 3 or you will get killed!!!

teb
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  • #27,515
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:15pm Jun 21, 2016 12:15pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Thank you for the compliment. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. I set out to create a Tradeguider-esque looking chart with the signs of strength and weakness turned off. It is not Tradeguider. So I can not speak on scanner, except to say that the concept seems pretty powerful. The trend is not just your friend; it's your lover. Therefore, being able to quickly determine the trend on multiple instruments and on multiple time frames ought to be of some benefit. On the other hand: A chart never lies. And if A chart never lies, then...
Crossfit? trading not painful enough for you
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #27,516
  • Jun 21, 2016 12:35pm Jun 21, 2016 12:35pm
Quoting TEB63
good grief you do not need a scanner BUT you can not trade from one chart either you need at least 3 or you will get killed!!! teb {image}
Hi Teb!

Congrats on your trade, it uncommon here to see a 100 lot trade.

I contemplated scanner just to see how it works, but instead of that I will study Hidden Gaps posts, I plan to read at last 100 of it at the beginning. That will be a better use of time, as I am really shocked by his deep knowledge of FX VSA. Reading his valuable answers is a pleasure and an intellectual challenge for me, I love it.

Thanks HG!
  • #27,517
  • Jun 21, 2016 4:48pm Jun 21, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting TwoBooks
{quote} Hi Teb! Congrats on your trade, it uncommon here to see a 100 lot trade. I contemplated scanner just to see how it works, but instead of that I will study Hidden Gaps posts, I plan to read at last 100 of it at the beginning. That will be a better use of time, as I am really shocked by his deep knowledge of FX VSA. Reading his valuable answers is a pleasure and an intellectual challenge for me, I love it. Thanks HG!



lol
it was not a 100 lot trade.
it's was a small position before the Fed meeting.
I normally take off the amount of the trade before I post.
tradeguider is clear on multi time frames... as needful.
I was not going up against hg - in fact I did not see his posting until after I read your posting.
I was pointing out for everyone.
Someone Like hg can likely do one chart trades - those lesser traders like you and I need three charts

cheers

teb
  • #27,518
  • Jun 21, 2016 8:04pm Jun 21, 2016 8:04pm
the other trade I took today with this system - again a small trade with the fed
I like 3 charts

cheers

teb
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  • #27,519
  • Jun 22, 2016 12:26am Jun 22, 2016 12:26am
Quoting TEB63
good grief you do not need a scanner BUT you can not trade from one chart either you need at least 3 or you will get killed!!! teb {image}

Why ?
  • #27,520
  • Jun 22, 2016 4:03am Jun 22, 2016 4:03am
here folks, an old chart posted by Hiddengap a long time back, I donno if he remembers posting this. A very useful chart, lot to learn from it.

Notice the VSA sequence.

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I found the bearish engulfin bar very interesting, might come handy
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
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