- #22,863
- Jun 15, 2016 9:07am Jun 15, 2016 9:07am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
It is very possible that Yellen may continue with her hawkish tones at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, as I stated in earlier updates, all eyes will be on the UK referendum this month (23 June 2016) as to whether the UK will remain in the EU. The uncertainty of a Brexit raises many uncertainties around the UK economy and the future of the EU. I do not expect the US Fed to raise rates ahead of the UK referendum. Should the UK decide to remain in the EU, then it is very possible, that the US Fed may raise rates in the July meeting.
Technically, the EUR/USD is acting as planned as shown in the previous technical coverage where we saw it retracing towards 1.1220 with some rejections within the zone. At this point the scenario is the same. As long as 1.1175 holds we should see EUR/USD potentially up, rejecting from 1.1200-20 towards 1.1260 (H4,50.0,EMA89) with a potential towards 1.1312 - H5 resistance.
Below 1.1175 targets are 1.1140 and 1.1095. Expect, volatility spike just before and during FOMC.
Technically, the EUR/USD is acting as planned as shown in the previous technical coverage where we saw it retracing towards 1.1220 with some rejections within the zone. At this point the scenario is the same. As long as 1.1175 holds we should see EUR/USD potentially up, rejecting from 1.1200-20 towards 1.1260 (H4,50.0,EMA89) with a potential towards 1.1312 - H5 resistance.
Below 1.1175 targets are 1.1140 and 1.1095. Expect, volatility spike just before and during FOMC.
- #22,868
- Edited 8:42am Jun 16, 2016 8:20am | Edited 8:42am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The EUR/GBP has formed inverted head and shoulder and traders might try to short into the top of the right shoulder, exploiting the best possible r:r. POC for counter trend trades comes within 0.9670-0.9695 (H4, bearish divergence, Pin bar, the top of the right shoulder). The first target is 0.7892. If 0.7890 is broken it will form bearish M pattern towards 0.7850 where we could see buyers due to trend confluence zone (WPP, L3, EMA89, historical buyers) - remember the pair is still in an uptrend. So pay attention to price action within these important levels and you might be able to trade it both ways.
- #22,874
- Jun 20, 2016 5:06am Jun 20, 2016 5:06am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The EUR/USD and most Forex pairs opened with a gap on early Monday. Equities spiked higher as the market has temporarily dismissed the fear of Brexit as the latest Bloomberg reports reduced the Brexit probability to 42%. DAX went up 3.6 % along with FTSE. Equities went so bullish that it was almost like a foregone conclusion on UK referendum (!).
The change of sentiment in the market spiked the EUR/USD towards 1.14, stopping it around 1.1382 level. On the intraday chart we can see the inner trend line making a confluence with a retail gap. 78.6 and V shaped reversal within 1.1270-80 zone. If the pair retraces we might see the close of a bullish gap but if we don't see a retracement soon, this could qualify as the breakaway gap. They show when price is breaking from their trading range with a high volume and momentum. In this case we see inner trend line break after V shaped reversal. If breakaway gap is confirmed, 1.1448 will be the target.
In other scenario if we see the gap close pay attention to POC as we could see renewed buying pressure towards 1.1320, 1.1380 and 1.1448. If the sentiment turns negative again this scenario will be completely reversed and revised with a bearish outlook. It is all about Brexit now so be careful.
The change of sentiment in the market spiked the EUR/USD towards 1.14, stopping it around 1.1382 level. On the intraday chart we can see the inner trend line making a confluence with a retail gap. 78.6 and V shaped reversal within 1.1270-80 zone. If the pair retraces we might see the close of a bullish gap but if we don't see a retracement soon, this could qualify as the breakaway gap. They show when price is breaking from their trading range with a high volume and momentum. In this case we see inner trend line break after V shaped reversal. If breakaway gap is confirmed, 1.1448 will be the target.
In other scenario if we see the gap close pay attention to POC as we could see renewed buying pressure towards 1.1320, 1.1380 and 1.1448. If the sentiment turns negative again this scenario will be completely reversed and revised with a bearish outlook. It is all about Brexit now so be careful.
- #22,877
- Jun 20, 2016 8:32am Jun 20, 2016 8:32am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
The EUR/GBP has formed inverted head and shoulder and traders might try to short into the top of the right shoulder, exploiting the best possible r:r. POC for counter trend trades comes within 0.9670-0.9695 (H4, bearish divergence, Pin bar, the top of the right shoulder). The first target is 0.7892. If 0.7890 is broken it will form bearish M pattern towards 0.7850 where we could see buyers due to trend confluence zone (WPP, L3, EMA89, historical buyers) - remember the pair is still in an uptrend. So pay attention to price action within these important...
- #22,880
- Jun 21, 2016 9:29am Jun 21, 2016 9:29am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 14,361 Posts
Currently the loonie is in a retracement mode and traders should pay attention to POC within 1.2830-45 zone. (H4,61.8,inner trend line,EMA89). The zone also shows historical sellers (green circle) so the pair should reject from the zone towards 1.2775 and 1.2750. Only below 1.2748 we could expect a retest of 1.2709 daily camarilla support. 1.2880 is a very strong resistance and as long as the pair is capped below it, sellers should dominate.
FOR FULL ANALYSIS PLEASE READ HERE
FOR FULL ANALYSIS PLEASE READ HERE