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Is anyone here an institutional trader?

  • #1,101
  • Mar 6, 2016 6:46pm Mar 6, 2016 6:46pm
I'm gonna take a shot at this.

Because you're basing your enquiry on just 1 week's observation (which is not enough, IMHO), the following are my answers.

Quoting LiquidGenius
Is there anything to learn from this
I don't think so.

Quoting LiquidGenius
or is it purely coincidental?
It may or may not be coincidental. But merely looking at just the week prior to the one you're observing, I doubt you would get meaningful profits during similar times. So whether it is coincidental or not, it doesn't matter.

But don't just take my word for it. I could, after all, be wrong.

Go ahead and forward test your observation for the next, say, 1-2 months. I suspect your tests will show that coincidences (imagined or not) are only useful if you can make money from them.

I'm sure you will make some money out of it (even if it's from scalping), but it's doubtful the streak will last for any meaningful length of time.

Good luck!
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #1,102
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:29am Mar 29, 2016 6:29am
Not sure how many institutional traders are still following this thread, but a quick question if any are...

RE: end of month, is there a lot of "unwinding" of positions going on in the last few days of the month to "square up the books"?

Cheers in advance
  • #1,103
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:41pm Mar 29, 2016 6:41pm
Quoting BSFilter
Not sure how many institutional traders are still following this thread, but a quick question if any are... RE: end of month, is there a lot of "unwinding" of positions going on in the last few days of the month to "square up the books"? Cheers in advance
Is there end-of-month "unwinding"? Sure. In most cases, am not sure why that has to be the case if proper marking-to-market policies are in place.

Is there "a lot" of end-of-month unwinding? Never seen "a lot", at least not a lot that even matter, so my opinion is "No."

YMMV.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #1,104
  • Mar 29, 2016 6:55pm Mar 29, 2016 6:55pm
Cheers mate, appreciate the reply
  • #1,105
  • Mar 29, 2016 7:18pm Mar 29, 2016 7:18pm
Quoting BSFilter
Cheers mate, appreciate the reply
To clarify. The FX unwinding that's the most obvious is from corporates (in the form of fund repatriation mostly), not institutionals. And mostly end-of-financial-year, not end-of-month.

This is just from what I've seen in my own neck of the woods (Far East, and South East Asia).

Other financial centres will have their own nuances.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #1,106
  • Jun 13, 2016 11:46am Jun 13, 2016 11:46am
Do Big Bank traders pay attention to Fibonacci levels like the 50% retracement? Thanks
  • #1,107
  • Jun 13, 2016 7:04pm Jun 13, 2016 7:04pm
Quoting sharingan9
Do Big Bank traders pay attention to Fibonacci levels like the 50% retracement? Thanks
1. WHOSE 50% retracement? Yours? Some other trader(s)? Different traders have different starting/end points (i.e. 0% to 100% fibo lines) and in different timeframes. Hence there will be different versions of "50%". So if the question is do Bank traders zero in on YOUR 50% fibo line, the answer is No.

2. They focus (even if they focus AT ALL) on where there are orders clustering. If the orders HAPPEN to be at 50% in your own personal estimation and in whatever timeframe you're looking at, then that's just dumb luck.

3. It may even be a self-fulfilling prophecy; Banks can always count on individual traders in other Banks acting collectively (and unconsciously) to place orders at historical levels which happen (like magic?) to coincide with YOUR own fibo analysis.

4. When I say "historical levels", I mean levels where there have been significant price action (i.e. markets testing from above and/or below) in the past however recent or long ago.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #1,108
  • Jun 13, 2016 9:20pm Jun 13, 2016 9:20pm
Quoting skenobi
{quote} 1. WHOSE 50% retracement? Yours? Some other trader(s)? Different traders have different starting/end points (i.e. 0% to 100% fibo lines) and in different timeframes. Hence there will be different versions of "50%". So if the question is do Bank traders zero in on YOUR 50% fibo line, the answer is No. 2. They focus (even if they focus AT ALL) on where there are orders clustering. If the orders HAPPEN to be at 50% in your own personal estimation and in whatever timeframe you're looking at, then that's just dumb luck. 3. It may even...
Ok thanks. So by clusters do you mean like these trades i took where price hit my 50 retracement but it only really went up because it bounce off of resistance from consolidation that was broken and now is serving as support? My white vertical line is my entry at candle closehttps://gyazo.com/0f1255f792aa26316fdeac50a9f901c4https://gyazo.com/d69a1dc5ee9d3e361c2179b45b3da212
  • #1,109
  • Edited 5:48pm Jun 14, 2016 4:54am | Edited 5:48pm
Quoting sharingan9
{quote}Ok thanks. So by clusters do you mean like these trades i took where price hit my 50 retracement but it only really went up because it bounce off of resistance from consolidation that was broken and now is serving as support? My white vertical line is my entry at candle closehttps://gyazo.com/0f1255f792aa26316fdeac50a9f901c4https://gyazo.com/d69a1dc5ee9d3e361c2179b45b3da212
By "clusters", I mean dozens (maybe even hundreds) of institutional orders "clustering" at various levels near (or orbiting around) targeted horizontal lines (your so-called fibos). One horizontal line is just one level. There are many levels.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #1,110
  • Jun 14, 2016 5:01am Jun 14, 2016 5:01am
Quoting skenobi
{quote} By "clusters", I mean a dozens (maybe even hundreds) of institutional orders "clustering" at various levels near (or orbiting around) targeted horizontal lines (your so-called fibos). One horizontal line is just one level. There are many levels.
​great I will keep that in mind thanks for the your advice buddy. much appreciated
  • #1,111
  • Jul 17, 2016 8:21pm Jul 17, 2016 8:21pm
Fantastic thread. Love the intel offered by the pro's !!!

I have a question please:

Did the daily Forex Fix rates play a role in your entries and exits. I imagine they are in place as a means of reference for the instutional trading firms.

Thanks!

Sjc
  • #1,112
  • Jul 17, 2016 8:44pm Jul 17, 2016 8:44pm
Quoting BSFilter
Not sure how many institutional traders are still following this thread, but a quick question if any are... RE: end of month, is there a lot of "unwinding" of positions going on in the last few days of the month to "square up the books"? Cheers in advance
It depends on what you're trading, but books are cleared and adjusted throughout the day, especoally when Tokyo opens after the,euro and us session. If trading futures, options expiration om every third friday of the month is a liquidation and huge manipulation time. Sometimes es mini expiration has trillions of dollars of positions so crrtain syrike pricrs can make or break people and friends help eachother etc. Institutional levels are inventory levels where they are accumulating large positions and they will buy everything they can at that level without showing their hand to much. If you trade futures put a horizontal line exactly where each instrument opens on sunday and watch what happens.
  • #1,113
  • Jul 17, 2016 10:03pm Jul 17, 2016 10:03pm
Quoting Coondawg71
Fantastic thread. Love the intel offered by the pro's !!! I have a question please: Did the daily Forex Fix rates play a role in your entries and exits. I imagine they are in place as a means of reference for the instutional trading firms. Thanks! Sjc
I use the flows around the London fix.
  • #1,114
  • Jul 18, 2016 4:05am Jul 18, 2016 4:05am
Quoting srmfx
{quote} I use the flows around the London fix.

@srmfx Thanks for the reply! I appreciate it.

I've been tracking Fix for quite a while and it certainly seems to be an established fill level that is used in the immediate days that follow it but I have never found any piece of factual information that confirms its exact relevance to (Institutional) Traders.

@srmfx
@skenobi
@Magix
@JacobFordFX

I'm wondering if someone can offer a bit more intel on the matter of FIX. Such as:

1.) Which day of the week Fix is of most importance?
2.) Are there such Fix's as Monthly and Quarterly?

Thanks!!!
  • #1,115
  • Jul 18, 2016 7:35pm Jul 18, 2016 7:35pm
Quoting Coondawg71
Fantastic thread. Love the intel offered by the pro's !!! I have a question please: Did the daily Forex Fix rates play a role in your entries and exits.
No.

Quoting Coondawg71
I imagine they are in place as a means of reference for the instutional trading firms.
Yes.

Quoting Coondawg71
I've been tracking Fix for quite a while and it certainly seems to be an established fill level that is used in the immediate days that follow it but I have never found any piece of factual information that confirms its exact relevance to (Institutional) Traders.
If you Google "what is the forex fix used for", you may find the following references here, here, and here. As for relevance, it's probably only relevant to scalpers.

Quoting Coondawg71
@srmfx @skenobi @Magix @JacobFordFX I'm wondering if someone can offer a bit more intel on the matter of FIX. Such as: 1.) Which day of the week Fix is of most importance?
None.

Quoting Coondawg71
2.) Are there such Fix's as Monthly and Quarterly? Thanks!!!
AFAIK, No.

Now I'm gonna say something that may not be congruent to some among the uppity orthodoxy in the Forex Factory community:

The Fix is just a horizontal line.

If a trader can judiciously draw horizontal support/resistance lines AND make money from them, then he will find that the Fix is no more and no less special than those very same unsexy label-less horizontal lines. Fibonacci lines are also in the same category of "No Big Deal".

Labeling this or that line as the Fix or a fibo line or whatever doesn't change the fact that the caveats a trader applies when trading such lines are exactly the same.

Just try the following experiment.

Draw a horizontal line at the Fix each day and compare with Support/Resistance lines you draw yourself (using whatever criteria you want e.g. recent significant highs/lows and retracements/pullbacks, past price action around obvious S/R zones etc etc). I'm certain you will find that on some days The Fix level itself corresponds to (or is in the vicinity of) a significant S/R line, and on some other days (it seems) nobody gives a sh!t about it.

Bottomline: Support/Resistance trumps the Fix every time. (You don't have to believe me. There will be some in the audience who will want to go twelve rounds with me to debate this notion. I apologize in advance... I'm not interested in being right. )

As implied before, the Fix IMHO is only ever relevant to institutional scalpers with inside information, portfolio managers who need to mark-to-market portfolio components with a forex element, traders who need to mark-to-market their open positions etc etc.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #1,116
  • Jul 19, 2016 4:11am Jul 19, 2016 4:11am
@skenobi,

Thank you for your feedback, I appreciate it.
  • #1,117
  • Jul 19, 2016 5:35am Jul 19, 2016 5:35am
http://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/publi...duct111114.pdf
  • #1,118
  • Jul 19, 2016 6:50am Jul 19, 2016 6:50am
Quoting srmfx
http://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/publi...duct111114.pdf
Lovely read.
  • #1,119
  • Jul 19, 2016 7:07am Jul 19, 2016 7:07am
Regarding the fixes discussed..what happens to all the large orders received after the fix has elapsed, that are tied to the benchmark?
wouldn't the banks have prior agreements with large commercials or other clients regarding a benchmark on the day an exchange is required?
And if so, and the market price has moved away from the benchmark negatively at the time of the order, would it not be in their best interest to try to return to the benchmark?
You would think most banks would have these excess orders ...or would they be offset elsewhere?

Chart below only has 2 benchmarks not returned to..most are returned to the next day or within a working week...but this could be a result of the current ranging
Only the 14th & 15th July haven't been returned to..only time will tell..& its a small sample
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurodollarRef.PNG Size: 138 KB
  • #1,120
  • Edited 9:32am Jul 19, 2016 8:24am | Edited 9:32am
@PAStalker

Keep in mind, we are only mid-month. We could easily see that "gap" filled by month end.

@ nonLinear

Great post, got a laugh out of it. When there are only 13 or so banks and you are the top 3 or 4, You are on the top of the food chain and the market maker. The fact they could make this even possible it outrageous yet totally believable.
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