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Attachments: How to know if a S/R level is going to hold or break
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How to know if a S/R level is going to hold or break

  • #21
  • Jun 13, 2016 12:21pm Jun 13, 2016 12:21pm
Quoting BDardenTrade
{quote} So with that risk:reward they are like 75% effective by playing odds when the ratio is in their favor.

Not sure I understand.. why 75%?
  • #22
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:09pm Jun 13, 2016 2:09pm
Quoting ccr
https://youtu.be/EPmTGFg06zA
Inserted Video


I prefer this.
  • #23
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:09pm Jun 13, 2016 2:09pm
Why even guess if s/r level will hold. Simply trade with a flow.
  • #24
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:12pm Jun 13, 2016 2:12pm
Quoting batus
What i do observed is when price attempted too many times on those support or ressistance, its getting weaker. Below are the charts : {image} {image} When price in a rally mode, the best entry is wait for a pullback. {image}
Yes this is how it works. It's because all limit orders are consumed at the S/R zone and once price visits the same zone multiple times it will eventually get rid of all limit orders and continue. So basically the more price tries, the bigger are the odds of breaking. On the other hand, all major refusals of price are usually done in a violent matter.
  • #25
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:26pm Jun 13, 2016 2:26pm
Quoting batus
{quote} Indicator just for drawing but it need to draw manually..sometimes im not using it. Here's again when so many attempt on the support : {image}
Do you trade reversals only or you wait for confirmation patterns to form?
I mostly wait for confirmations.
If a trend looks weak, I'll get ready for a reversal, with fingers crossed
5 Trades today on AUDJPY.
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  • #26
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:32pm Jun 13, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting bloodpoodle
1. look at higher time frames 2. look at Dollar index if your trading a usd pair. 3. look at correlations with other markets.. Such as Dow, SPX, Dax, Oil, Gold, copper, hong kong, japan stocks 4. Time of day.. Asia pretty weak.. London a little stronger... USA/London overlap Very powerful can break levels easy 5. Data releases can break levels 6. Structure of the market above and below the S/R 7. Make sure your drawing s/r correctly 8. Is it the first retest of S/R or 2nd or 3rd.. Each retest level gets weaker.. Best is always first retest. 9. Quick...
Mind blown.
  • #27
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:39pm Jun 13, 2016 2:39pm
Quoting xoxo12
Why even guess if s/r level will hold. Simply trade with a flow.
That's what I say to myself everyday. But of course, when I see something that looks like a reversal, I can't help it.
I'll have to get in.
  • #28
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:46pm Jun 13, 2016 2:46pm
Quoting COGSx86
S/R doesnt work because it relies on a specific line values, the market isnt perfect. Zones are better in my opinion. Your obviously having high leverage trades if your getting burned ( I know been there done that). Trading breaks/reversals, requires you to remember that 5 things can happen when price comes into these zones Breaks Reverses Breaks-Fakeout-Reverses Reverses - Fakeout- Breakout Hovers. At the same time understand the bigger picture, is the market in a downtrend/uptrend on the higher time frames ? Use Elliott wave count helps to determine...
Thanks bro. For some reason, I've never taken the Elliott waves seriously, (maybe because I tried it by using indicators that repaint a lot).
I Guess I'll have to read more this weekend
  • #29
  • Jun 13, 2016 2:58pm Jun 13, 2016 2:58pm
Quoting castaluna
{quote} That's what I say to myself everyday. But of course, when I see something that looks like a reversal, I can't help it. I'll have to get in.
Yes I know the feeling, It is called greed. I used to trade like that, didn't have much luck. Some winners some losers overall didn't lose money but I also didn't make a lot of money. After I took more conservative way, my profit become bigger and I can tell you I feel much safer trading like that. Every day when I sit in front of my computer I tell myself: " trade with a trend, trade with a flow"
  • #30
  • Jun 13, 2016 3:01pm Jun 13, 2016 3:01pm
Quoting castaluna
{quote} Do you trade reversals only or you wait for confirmation patterns to form? I mostly wait for confirmations. If a trend looks weak, I'll get ready for a reversal, with fingers crossed 5 Trades today on AUDJPY. {image}
I wait when a price came back to the decision made earlier , with a good risk:reward then only i will make an entry.
  • #31
  • Jun 13, 2016 3:10pm Jun 13, 2016 3:10pm
Quoting xoxo12
{quote} Yes I know the feeling, It is called greed. I used to trade like that, didn't have much luck. Some winners some losers overall didn't lose money but I also didn't make a lot of money. After I took more conservative way, my profit become bigger and I can tell you I feel much safer trading like that. Every day when I sit in front of my computer I tell myself: " trade with a trend, trade with a flow"
Some people don't have will power... anymore
  • #32
  • Jun 14, 2016 4:55pm Jun 14, 2016 4:55pm
Obvious observation , this is what i know about the S/R strength :

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  • #33
  • Jun 16, 2016 2:47pm Jun 16, 2016 2:47pm
Markets were crazy today.
Trading on 5m charts is not easy. Lolz.
#almostdied
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  • #34
  • Edited Jun 17, 2016 11:19am Jun 16, 2016 9:13pm | Edited Jun 17, 2016 11:19am
Quoting bloodpoodle
I hope this helps..
Nice list.

@castaluna: perhaps the best idea might be to trade during times of lowest volatility, e.g. between approx 1900 GMT and 0400 GMT. Price can drift between S/D zones during this time, provided that there are no major news announcements. But keep in mind that trading smaller moves means that br0ker costs have a relatively greater effect.
  • #35
  • Jun 17, 2016 6:40am Jun 17, 2016 6:40am
Quoting castaluna
Markets were crazy today. Trading on 5m charts is not easy. Lolz. #almostdied {image}
EU and GU are self correcting. Brexit Campaign suspended. Cox is pro-Euro.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-53-back-leave

Personally long and close a couple of peanuts b'cos for this.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...loral-tributes

Shortly EU and GU bounced off.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #36
  • Jun 18, 2016 10:50am Jun 18, 2016 10:50am
These are some of my rules for trading.

1) The trend is NOT my friend. I only trade reversals(contrarian). Even when my prediction is wrong,the market generally gives
me a way to get out quickly and cutting my loses short. I found out that when I started trading, 90% of my loses
were because of "trend following" trades.

2) Another thing that ruined my accounts before, was me trying to follow breakouts. Sure, some were successful,
but this ended very badly for me.

3) Master a few reversal patterns.
http://www.forex-charts-book.com/chart_patterns/04/

4) Knowing how to /when to get out of a trade is more important. After placing a trade, as soon as I see signs that the level is going to break,
I immediately look for an exit. One of these signs is when a candle aggressively breaks out and closes outside the level. If another candle opens and closes outside
the same level, this will be a red flag for me.As soon as this happens, there's usually a little retracement back to the broken level, and that's when I get out. So, my "loses" could only be a few pips. And in most cases, I close the trades at a "brake-even".

5) My S/R lines are not Fibonnacci or pivot indicators. I drew them manually on Daily charts to trade on 5Minute Charts with some dating as far
back as 2001. Pivot indicators can not be trusted (at least for my trading strategy),
It took me about a year comparing results from Pivot indicators vs manually drawn S/R lines, and by all aspects, the manually drawn lines where more powerful and reliable. I wish someone told me this before, it would have saved me a lot of time.

6) Be FAST and don't be Greedy because there's no time for hesitation. As soon as conditions are met*, enter the trade. Same with getting out.
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  • #37
  • Jun 18, 2016 1:16pm Jun 18, 2016 1:16pm
It is with S/R lines as with any other chart pattern, it cannot stand alone. Institutional traders look at other instruments and market, even market news, to trade the breakout/down. Trading breakouts/downs is a difficult art, probably one of the most - perhaps there are better setups to trade than the breakout/down.
Financial Trading Without Programming
  • #38
  • Edited 4:28pm Jun 18, 2016 3:48pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting castaluna
These are some of my rules for trading. 1) The trend is NOT my friend. I only trade reversals(contrarian). Even when my prediction is wrong,the market generally gives me a way to get out quickly and cutting my loses short. I found out that when I started trading, 90% of my loses were because of "trend following" trades.
Well I can simply accept The Trend Is Our Friend. Prices move up and down in a Trend.

What is Break-Out? Line broken? Prices move up and down crossing the Line at anytime.

What is Reversal? Prices move back for how long? Prices retraces to the means? When? At the Top or the Bottom? How?

Exit at the break even? Ur trade will not able to develop, hit that BE many times soon because Stop Hunting.

Manual draw S/R more powerfull? Yeah that on AUDJPY M5 TF. So what about manual S/R on high time frame? Even most powerfull I tought? The Markets is not just Supply and Demand. Not just Support and Resistance Zone.

How fast? And when condition would fit U to exit?

We cannot know how the breakout or reversal will occur if We dont have our own clues.

We cannot know how the MMs will move price next (Master TAH said that).

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  • #39
  • Jun 18, 2016 4:36pm Jun 18, 2016 4:36pm
Goofy question. Why not just trade the market that occurs? You cannot "predict" anything, but you can follow it very easily. If you are trading line breaks, WOW, good luck with that!!
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #40
  • Edited 5:19pm Jun 18, 2016 4:56pm | Edited 5:19pm
Quoting dkrock
Goofy question. Why not just trade the market that occurs? You cannot "predict" anything, but you can follow it very easily. If you are trading line breaks, WOW, good luck with that!!
I choose term that You can follow it "hardly" when you have your own terms clues. Just that. For Me, The first clue is My Trend is My Friend.
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