Brexit Trading of Euro and Pound | Forex Factory

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Brexit Trading of Euro and Pound

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 9, 2016 12:35pm Jun 9, 2016 12:35pm
Price action trading on GU,EU,EGBP for Brexit

Brexit Referendum day : June 23rd , 2016

Exit Polls Forecast Verdict : 50-50 (too close to call - brexit leave marginally ahead)

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Citi Forecast :

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No Brainer is : "This implies for the risk surrounding the UK Brexit referendum, a 5-6% rally of GBPUSD on a REMAIN vote could raise EURUSD by 2.5-3%. A 10-12% move of GBPUSD on a LEAVE vote would translate into a 5-6% move lower in EURUSD."

It presents great opportunity to trade on EUR USD, GBP USD and their alliance EUR GBP pairs.. Lets discuss on micros and macros to trade them together as we head into this major event for June 2016...

-Scoobi
Scoobi doobi doo
  • #2
  • Jun 9, 2016 1:53pm Jun 9, 2016 1:53pm
EUR USD : 61.8% Fib resistance at 1.1418 holds for now and heading south at the moment with 38.2% fib support at 1.1296

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Scoobi doobi doo
  • #3
  • Jun 9, 2016 10:59pm Jun 9, 2016 10:59pm
Hi, please forgive me. I'm sure this has been asked a million times. Is there a way to find out a schedule for the Brexit polls that the UK media releases. Thanks
  • #4
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:08am Jun 10, 2016 12:08am

Goldman Sachs Strategy for Brexit :


Goldman Sachs knows what to do with the pound on the Brexit vote

As was the case for all major currencies, Sterling went up in response to the very weak US Jobs report on Friday (June 3), but in relative terms it underperformed. The GBP depreciated vis-a-vis the G-10 currencies (with the exception of the USD), a trend that picked up again about ten days ago, when polls on the upcoming referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union suggested again that the outcome would be a close call.
As we approach the referendum date, positioning around the event remains an important macro theme, and in this FX Views we provide an update on our thinking on Sterling.

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  1. After the referendum, if voters decide that the UK should continue to be a member of the European Union, EUR/GBP could move sharply towards our 12-month forecast of 0.70. If there is a vote to leave the EU, we estimate that Sterling could weaken by about 10% in trade-weighted terms due to the uncertainty that such an outcome would create. According to our estimates, EUR/USD could fall by about 4%.
  2. Tactically, over the next couple of weeks (until June 23), we think risk-reward is for downside in Sterling, which in trade-weighted terms is still about 2% above its lows at the end of February.
  3. We prefer GBP/USD downside to EUR/GBP upside. GBP/CHF and EUR/CHF downside are two other risk-off trades that we would expect to perform well in the event of a 'Leave' vote. By contrast, we do not like GBP/JPY downside.


Anyone believe goldman sachs strategy posted on the public domain??

Scoobi doobi doo
  • #5
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:13am Jun 10, 2016 12:13am
Quoting husky1
Hi, please forgive me. I'm sure this has been asked a million times. Is there a way to find out a schedule for the Brexit polls that the UK media releases. Thanks

I am personally following http://www.economist.com/Brexit closely am sure there are other avenues like reuters,bloomberg where they cover schedule in detail husky...
Scoobi doobi doo
  • #6
  • Jun 10, 2016 3:29am Jun 10, 2016 3:29am
what happen if brexit want to leave?
onorebate
  • #7
  • Jun 10, 2016 7:33am Jun 10, 2016 7:33am
Quoting putrimawarfx
what happen if brexit want to leave?
Short term GBP will lose value but long term GBP will become a stronger currency imo.

If Remain vote wins, Carney has already said he will raise interest rates on the back of this. Increasing GBP value.
  • #8
  • Jun 10, 2016 1:35pm Jun 10, 2016 1:35pm
Quoting Scoobidoobi
Price action trading on GU,EU,EGBP for Brexit Brexit Referendum day : June 23rd , 2016 Exit Polls Forecast Verdict : 50-50 (too close to call - brexit leave marginally ahead) {image} Citi Forecast : {image} No Brainer is : "This implies for the risk surrounding the UK Brexit referendum, a 5-6% rally of GBPUSD on a REMAIN vote could raise EURUSD by 2.5-3%. A 10-12% move of GBPUSD on a LEAVE vote would translate into a 5-6% move lower in EURUSD." It presents great opportunity to trade on EUR USD, GBP USD and their alliance EUR GBP pairs.. Lets discuss...
I don't know the source of those polls or the numbers polled or where, but the overwhelming feeling here in the UK is LEAVE. Everyone you speak to want to leave.

This may be more indicative. You can't argue with 75% of 55,000.
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  • #9
  • Jun 12, 2016 7:02am Jun 12, 2016 7:02am
Now if you look at the setup, it was perfect. We get a poll on Friday, and another one on Saturday. GBP/JPY is the type of instrument that can GAP 600 pips, and recover it in less than 15 mins. Yet, this shows you that people have information we don't have. Now their massive sell off will turn into even bigger profit as they leveraged into the close.
@GJscalper I've turned a new leaf. No more trolling.
  • #10
  • Jun 12, 2016 10:51am Jun 12, 2016 10:51am
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...s-flock-Brexit huge gap down gbp leave takes 19th lead
Scoobi doobi doo
  • #11
  • Jun 12, 2016 10:52am Jun 12, 2016 10:52am
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...s-flock-Brexit huge gap down gbp leave takes 19 point lead
Scoobi doobi doo
  • #12
  • Jun 12, 2016 10:57am Jun 12, 2016 10:57am
Keep track of GAP price here. http://www.reuters.com/finance/curre...=&destCurr=JPY

As of the time of this post the gap has yet to be reflected as their has not been an update. Give it another 6 hours. Maybe 149.00 will be gap price.
@GJscalper I've turned a new leaf. No more trolling.
  • #13
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:12am Jun 12, 2016 11:12am
Quoting GJscalper
Keep track of GAP price here. http://www.reuters.com/finance/curre...=&destCurr=JPY As of the time of this post the gap has yet to be reflected as their has not been an update. Give it another 6 hours. Maybe 149.00 will be gap price.
Market is open in less than 5 hours... check live price before market open on bloomberg
  • #14
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:13am Jun 12, 2016 11:13am
https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
Que Sera
  • #15
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:15am Jun 12, 2016 11:15am
yougov poll is the only one to trust ... And bear in mind the old journo's saying... "The most effective poll is the wrong poll"
Que Sera
  • #16
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:18am Jun 12, 2016 11:18am
Quoting GJscalper
Keep track of GAP price here. http://www.reuters.com/finance/curre...=&destCurr=JPY As of the time of this post the gap has yet to be reflected as their has not been an update. Give it another 6 hours. Maybe 149.00 will be gap price.
this is heading 147 today
Scoobi doobi doo
  • #17
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:23am Jun 12, 2016 11:23am
i will say that the recent shooting in florida will be an added weight on the undecided voters to stand for brexit.
  • #18
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:27am Jun 12, 2016 11:27am
UK will be leaving, almost everyone I ask is on the brexit side & im sure it will be a record turnout to vote.
Que Sera
  • #19
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:41am Jun 12, 2016 11:41am
Hi..I'm gbpjpy trader. Due to my technical analysis, GBP/JPY going bearish 400-500pips before Brexit.

The big player already took an action. As we can see, for the last 2 weeks, gj has been bearish 1000pips,

And it will still continue going down.

If you use fibo retracement, put it 0% at the top of may 2016 and 100% at bottom Apri 2016, gj is going to 161.8.

Top of may touched bottom price 2014, 163.865, and it is very strong resistance there.

Gj already break bottom May last week, now trying to break bottom of april.
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  • #20
  • Jun 12, 2016 11:41am Jun 12, 2016 11:41am
Quoting Bicarus
i will say that the recent shooting in florida will be an added weight on the undecided voters to stand for brexit.
can't agree more.. free migrants travel from eu to UK pose significant risk for security of common man plus eu welcoming turks to join would let massive move freely within Europe and UK should stand out from this mess by pulling out of eu and signing up EFTA euro free trade agreement like USA n others
Scoobi doobi doo
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