Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 387 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #7,721
  • Jun 12, 2016 1:33am Jun 12, 2016 1:33am
Quoting conom589
{quote} Hi VSM {image}
Hi conom589
The zone at no 3 not considered as Cp zone because it is not imbalance, it is a case of balance.
The rule says that there should be one candle consolidating away from the zone of imbalance.
  • #7,722
  • Jun 12, 2016 6:05am Jun 12, 2016 6:05am
Hello Alfonso and every body!
This is my analysis about Nzd/Usd.
Monthly is up but the price is reacting monthly flip zone.
Weekly is up but weekly supply in control, there was not any candle closes above the distal line of previous weekly supply zone.
Daily is up but bearish pattern was created.
The sequence and re-alignment allow we set n forget long at daily demand zone.
if daily bullish trend is broken, we will set a long at daily demand nested within weekly demand zone.
i will patiently wait for that happen
Could anyone who have a different scenario? please, show me know about that.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDWeekly.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily.png Size: 47 KB
Pursue excellence, and success will follow
  • #7,723
  • Jun 12, 2016 6:20am Jun 12, 2016 6:20am
Hi Vsm,rule says "AFTER 3 CP PATTERN WE CONECT A TRENDLINE" Repeat "CP PATTERN" DROP-BASE-DROP
i don't care if that zone not imbalance or not supply,BUT there it is 3 CP PATTERN and we can conect descending or bearish trendline!
and Vsm you incorrect no.3 cp is imbalances not balance,btw congrat's your open position! NICE!
Hi Connom and Chawl you miss one look at this!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 84 KB

to all MAKE SENSE???
  • #7,724
  • Jun 12, 2016 2:32pm Jun 12, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting Chandra.AP
Hi Vsm,rule says "AFTER 3 CP PATTERN WE CONECT A TRENDLINE" Repeat "CP PATTERN" DROP-BASE-DROP i don't care if that zone not imbalance or not supply,BUT there it is 3 CP PATTERN and we can conect descending or bearish trendline! and Vsm you incorrect no.3 cp is imbalances not balance,btw congrat's your open position! NICE! Hi Connom and Chawl you miss one look at this! {image} to all MAKE SENSE???
If I can't see no major 'imbalances', I stop to tinker price action with forged trendlines in that timeframe because I begin to see hallucinations of non-existing trends.

EURUSD is in monthly consolidation for at least ~14 months and clearly in 'balance', there are wicks everywhere, so I would not prefer to add new trendlines to monthly charts till I see more clear marubozus, ERCs, consolidating aways, valleys, peaks, etc. and I will consider monthly as having 'no clear direction'. IMHO your last monthly trendline gives a false impression of a more stronger monthly short bias than the reality (but is perfectly valid for weekly)
Trade what you see..
  • #7,725
  • Jun 12, 2016 2:54pm Jun 12, 2016 2:54pm
Quoting Chawl
{quote} If I can't see no major 'imbalances', I stop to tinker price action with forged trendlines in that timeframe because I begin to see hallucinations of non-existing trends. EURUSD is in monthly consolidation for at least ~14 months and clearly in 'balance', there are wicks everywhere, so I would not prefer to add new trendlines to monthly charts till I see more clear marubozus, ERCs, consolidating aways, valleys, peaks, etc. and I will consider monthly as having 'no clear direction'. IMHO your last monthly trendline gives a false impression...
  • #7,726
  • Jun 13, 2016 11:01am Jun 13, 2016 11:01am
Quoting Chandra.AP
Hi Vsm,rule says "AFTER 3 CP PATTERN WE CONECT A TRENDLINE" Repeat "CP PATTERN" DROP-BASE-DROP i don't care if that zone not imbalance or not supply,BUT there it is 3 CP PATTERN and we can conect descending or bearish trendline! and Vsm you incorrect no.3 cp is imbalances not balance,btw congrat's your open position! NICE! Hi Connom and Chawl you miss one look at this! {image} to all MAKE SENSE???
  • #7,727
  • Jun 13, 2016 12:10pm Jun 13, 2016 12:10pm
Quoting leo_thien
gbp/nzd: monthly is in an uptrend, weekly is down, daily is down. Set and forget longs at daily, weekly nested within monthly demand {image} {image}
Also was waiting for this trade, today Buy limit worked and opened order on weekly TF. We'll see where price will go
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZDWeekly.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,728
  • Jun 13, 2016 8:36pm Jun 13, 2016 8:36pm
Quoting rokutata
{quote} Also was waiting for this trade, today Buy limit worked and opened order on weekly TF. We'll see where price will go {image}
Hi rokutata
I am also observing the same set up
The upper zone is the CP against the trend on weekly ( CP even if nested in higher time frame needs confirmation), so I am awaiting for the confirmation type trade on daily ( waiting for new daily imbalance to form)
Lower zone I am having SET & FORGET type order.
  • #7,729
  • Jun 14, 2016 12:39am Jun 14, 2016 12:39am
Quoting Vsm
{quote} Hi rokutata I am also observing the same set up The upper zone is the CP against the trend on weekly ( CP even if nested in higher time frame needs confirmation), so I am awaiting for the confirmation type trade on daily ( waiting for new daily imbalance to form) Lower zone I am having SET & FORGET type order.
Exactly! my friend.
I agree with you about scenarios planning.
Thanks! Vms.
Pursue excellence, and success will follow
  • #7,730
  • Jun 14, 2016 1:18am Jun 14, 2016 1:18am
Quoting Vsm
{quote} Hi rokutata I am also observing the same set up The upper zone is the CP against the trend on weekly ( CP even if nested in higher time frame needs confirmation), so I am awaiting for the confirmation type trade on daily ( waiting for new daily imbalance to form) Lower zone I am having SET & FORGET type order.
Same.
Trade what you see..
  • #7,731
  • Jun 14, 2016 3:17am Jun 14, 2016 3:17am
Hello guys, still learning about S&D methodology. newbie question: What does 'CP' stand for?
  • #7,732
  • Jun 14, 2016 6:01am Jun 14, 2016 6:01am
Quoting Zol
Hello guys, still learning about S&D methodology. newbie question: What does 'CP' stand for?
Continuation pattern. Pls refer OP
i just want to make 10% gain a month.
  • #7,733
  • Jun 14, 2016 11:03pm Jun 14, 2016 11:03pm
EURJPY broken the monthly demand @118.7
Analysis for the same is as follows

Monthly:-

Observations:-
1) Price within descending momentum line.
2) Demand taken out
3) New level of supply formed
Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment.
Decision matrix:- Sell at the supply

Weekly:-

Observations:-
1) Price within descending momentum line.
2) Demand taken [email protected]
3) New level of supply formed
Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment.
Decision matrix:- Short sell at supply

Daily:-

Observations:-
1) Price within descending momentum line.
2) Monthly Demand taken out @ 118.7
3) New level of supply formed
Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment.
Decision matrix:- Sell at supply level @121.8 till the descending momentum line is valid, otherwise sell at nested level in weekly @ 123.20
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,734
  • Jun 15, 2016 12:55am Jun 15, 2016 12:55am
Quoting Vsm
EURJPY broken the monthly demand @118.7 Analysis for the same is as follows Monthly:- Observations:- 1) Price within descending momentum line. 2) Demand taken out 3) New level of supply formed Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment. Decision matrix:- Sell at the supply Weekly:- Observations:- 1) Price within descending momentum line. 2) Demand taken [email protected] 3) New level of supply formed Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment. Decision matrix:- Short sell at supply Daily:- Observations:-...
Nice supply and demand analysis on EUR/JPY, thanks for sharing my friend. So we must go long on EUR/JPY? Down we go
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,735
  • Jun 15, 2016 1:31am Jun 15, 2016 1:31am
Quoting Vsm
EURJPY broken the monthly demand @118.7 Analysis for the same is as follows Monthly:- Observations:- 1) Price within descending momentum line. 2) Demand taken out 3) New level of supply formed Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment. Decision matrix:- Sell at the supply Weekly:- Observations:- 1) Price within descending momentum line. 2) Demand taken [email protected] 3) New level of supply formed Conclusion: - Clear down trend as price momentum & trend is in alignment. Decision matrix:- Short sell at supply Daily:- Observations:-...
I'd like to note the stale weekly demand, I'd rather be watchful. AFAIK all FXCM accounts has MT4 support, you might think switching from TS to MT4 to use Alfonso's indicators.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see..
  • #7,736
  • Edited 5:32am Jun 15, 2016 2:53am | Edited 5:32am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Nice supply and demand analysis on EUR/JPY, thanks for sharing my friend. So we must go long on EUR/JPY? Down we go Cheers, Alfonso www.set-and-forget.com
Monthly down. weekly down, daily down only short sell.

Long position will be counter trend trading that will be possible Only when

1 )Once Price hit Monthly low curve at 101.00 look for confirmation type entry on daily ( Break of descending momentum line & one supply zone taken out)
Target for profit booking nearest weekly supply level

OR

2) Weekly trend change completely from down to up ( descending momentum line broken & one supply zone taken out), Long on new daily demand zone formed. Target for profit booking nearest monthly supply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,737
  • Jun 16, 2016 2:17am Jun 16, 2016 2:17am
EURJPY removed counter-trend monthly demand zone, short bias on yen cross pairs supply levels and imbalances, H4 as well.

New Daily supply imbalance being created, a couple of more higher. Short bias on supply zones.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_ff2.jpg Size: 175 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #7,738
  • Jun 16, 2016 8:26pm Jun 16, 2016 8:26pm
Quoting Vsm
{quote} Monthly:- Observations :- 1) Ascending trend line broken. 2) Demand taken out 3) No possibility of drawing descending trend line. 4) Monthly demand in control & price low in the monthly curve. 5) New supply zone formed at break of trend line @ 1.3820 Conclusion :- Down trend, Decision matrix:- Sell at supply zones Weekly:- Observations :- 1) Ascending trend line broken 2) New supply levels are formed & demand taken out 3) No possibility of drawing descending trend line 4) CP supply zone just above monthly low curve 5) Price bouncing of weekly...
USDCAD we discussed triggered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,739
  • Jun 17, 2016 9:11pm Jun 17, 2016 9:11pm
Vsm, any idea of the selling target of this pair USDCAD?
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #7,740
  • Jun 18, 2016 8:36am Jun 18, 2016 8:36am
I wonder how to forward test this strategy. I read the introduction of this thread and watched the video how to setup forex tester 2.

Is this the best way to practice? If so, I cannot fnd the mentioned supply and demand indicator II_SupDemMOD_DarkBG_SolidFill.

Thanks.
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