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  • #13,301
  • Jun 10, 2016 8:05am Jun 10, 2016 8:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}shoulda waited, closed all remaining long VXX and UVXY Jun 17 calls for about net 2x...a little better than that on VXX. Was sweating those as clock was ticking and looked like market would never break down. Thanks, Soros.
I'm in a similar position, VIX June 15/18 call spread. Completely missed the chance to close when VIX popped to 17.5 last month, should have had a pending. Looked like it was going to end badly on yesterday's action but today gave some indication there may be more bearish PA on the cards for SPY, hoping for a test of 209 but not much time left! Better to close than roll is the advice I've seen many times and I should probably do the same.
  • #13,302
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:13am Jun 10, 2016 11:13am
Quoting uksnowman
I'm in a similar position, VIX June 15/18 call spread. Completely missed the chance to close when VIX popped to 17.5 last month, should have had a pending. Looked like it was going to end badly on yesterday's action but today gave some indication there may be more bearish PA on the cards for SPY, hoping for a test of 209 but not much time left! Better to close than roll is the advice I've seen many times and I should probably do the same.
Better to close early for decent profit rather than wait for pie in the sky.

I wish I had had your problem - most of what I had for June I had to roll down multiple times, chasing the ^VIX death spiral. I finally got things down to where they had a chance, but it cost me, and it was just in the last week or so. Finally, we get some vol today and I was able to close all Jun 17 UVXY, VIX, and VXX calls for modest net profits - a little over 2x for some VXX legs the best.

The plus side is that I have similar trades out on all the weekly strikes, out to the end of July, and I have been rolling those down, down, down....now if we can get some lasting vol action I will do well on those.

It sucks to be always behind the curve and one approach to prevent that is just to shotgun trades on every expiry. Somewhere, somehow, something will win - and if you have set them up with nice, fat r:r, your big winners will more than wipe out the duds and b/e's.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,303
  • Jun 10, 2016 12:53pm Jun 10, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting The Fool
I need UVXY $11 by Friday just to break even. The b/e runs hard out towards $16+ in early next week. Realistically, about the best can be hoped for by Jun 17 would be UVXY $14-$15 in a market sell-off, vol rush. So I need vol to come on Thurs so I can either sell out or sell some June 10 calls.
Well next week is Jun FOMC, the Brexit polling is looking Brexit-y, Soros is short the market, sell in May has finally arrived? If so, hallelujah, but just my luck to be a week in front of the best action. I have so much set up over the next month though, all I need is for this vol rush to last, and I will be all
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,304
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:27pm Jun 10, 2016 4:27pm
Whaddah day ... . Had me scrambling rolling troubled call side SPY crap up and out for cheaper than I could've otherwise ... . All in all a good day, the highlight of which was closing out one of these short duration SPX "monsters", which had me sweating it a bit on the break of the 2120 short call strike:

Here's the chain:

5/25: Sold SPX June 15th 2000/2010/2120/2130 IC for a $305/contract credit
5/27: Rolled 2000/2010 to 2030/2040 for a $50/contract credit
6/6: Rolled 2030/2040 to 2055/2065 for a $55/contract credit
6/10: Bough SPX June 15th 2055/2065/2120/2130 for a $235/contract debit

Total Credits: $410/contract
Total Debits: $235/contract
Net Profit: $175/contract

Still got an SPX June 24th 2045/2055/2145/2155 IC on ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,305
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:29pm Jun 10, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Whaddah day ... . Had me scrambling rolling troubled call side SPY crap up and out for cheaper than I could've otherwise ... . All in all a good day, the highlight of which was closing out one of these short duration SPX "monsters", which had me sweating it a bit on the break of the 2120 short call strike: Here's the chain: 5/25: Sold SPX June 15th 2000/2010/2120/2130 IC for a $305/contract credit 5/27: Rolled 2000/2010 to 2030/2040 for a $50/contract credit 6/6: Rolled 2030/2040 to 2055/2065 for a $55/contract credit 6/10: Bough SPX June 15th 2055/2065/2120/2130...
But what was good for my SPY/SPX positions was not so good for my GLD ... . Lol.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,306
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:32pm Jun 10, 2016 4:32pm
Quoting The Fool
I tried to fill VXX $13.50 long calls for Friday, for 7c, didn't chase...
...LOL...I TURNED UP MY NOSE AT 8C AND IT WENT OUT AT $0.85 MID.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,307
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:34pm Jun 10, 2016 4:34pm
While this movement in SPY/SPX looks "promising," I'm not going to get too excited yet. SPY bounced off the mid line of a long-term bullish channel and ended the day basically at that psych 210 mark:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPY DAILY.jpg Size: 165 KB


Too many times have I seen the BTFD'ers wade in and push this crap higher ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,308
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:35pm Jun 10, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...LOL...I TURNED UP MY NOSE AT 8C AND IT WENT OUT AT $0.85 MID.....
Fahhhhhhhckkkkkkk!
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,309
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:37pm Jun 10, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Whaddah day ...... .
TDA margin called me on my little Roth account, first thing in the AM as I'm trying to roll some trades, just a glitch on their end & will be gone Monday but hurt me, hurt my feelings, too....not the first time that has happened, either.

Anyway, I had about a +20% week, across the board - God Bless Volatility. Need some more.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,310
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:38pm Jun 10, 2016 4:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...LOL...I TURNED UP MY NOSE AT 8C AND IT WENT OUT AT $0.85 MID.....
Speaking of which ... . Dare I look back at the VIX @ 13 setup I was contemplating, but passed on, thinking we were going to be staring at VIX sub 12 soon?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,311
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:42pm Jun 10, 2016 4:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}TDA margin called me on my little Roth account, first thing in the AM as I'm trying to roll some trades, just a glitch on their end & will be gone Monday but hurt me, hurt my feelings, too....not the first time that has happened, either. Anyway, I had about a +20% week, across the board - God Bless Volatility. Need some more.....
I was getting kinda depressed before yesterday's/today's price action and then all of a sudden, bing, bang, boom ... . Rainbows, lollipops, unicorns, etc. Lol. Amazing how a couple of days' movement can make your week or even your month ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,312
  • Jun 10, 2016 4:48pm Jun 10, 2016 4:48pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Rainbows, lollipops, unicorns, etc. Lol.
well, after sitting thru what was prolly an epic volatility rout, it's kind of hard to believe, could it be? is it safe for the Munchkins to come out now? Is the Wicked Witch Really dead? Actually, I "knew" we would get some around these big June events....then you have Soros shorting....Bill Gross talking credit market supernova....the freakin Brexit polls tipping "leave".....omfg what took it so long? A week earlier and instead of a 20% week I might have had a 90% week. But oh well....it'll be a real kick in the nads if the markets rally in the coming week, but that nad pain has gotten pretty easy to take after all these sideways years....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,313
  • Jun 10, 2016 6:50pm Jun 10, 2016 6:50pm
Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised to wake up this monring to see my VXX trades now in profit
USO and USDCAD took a bit of a hit, but still in decent profit on those so no need to panic yet. Oh, and the Nikkei finally gave me a spanking, which was thoroughly deserved because I didn't manage to get out of my trade before the main session close... and of course the gap went against me

Still, not a bad week overall. The rest of June should be very interesting!
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,314
  • Edited 8:45pm Jun 10, 2016 8:33pm | Edited 8:45pm
Quoting NorthTrader
Still, not a bad week overall. The rest of June should be very interesting!
Indeed. Of course, I want more juice for my little friends. In the VXX Jun 17 call vert below, I was able to roll down the long $16 calls at a final price lower than the credit for the short $17's - so it's a risk-free trade....(lol, well it is now - the loss is hidden in the trade(s) I had to make to get the shown setup - still, looks good. ) I need VXX above $16 next week, >$18 would be flabulous
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-10_2018VXXVXX.png Size: 78 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,315
  • Jun 10, 2016 11:21pm Jun 10, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting The Fool
Is it true? "Beginning in mid-June, companies will stop buying back their stock prior to issuing earnings reports, sapping liquidity from the market, Kostin said. Those discretionary purchases won't pick back up until August, he added." https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/s...153521438.html

Personally, I don't think it's true. It could be a big problem because one of the safest bets seems to be buying stocks/calls
on the "most shorted" shares of the Russell 2000 or the Nasdaq. Here's one of the GIS results from "zerohedge most shorted":

Attached Image

(Zerohedge)

This was largely due to stock buybacks as you probably know, and stock buybacks were never announced publicly; they just
happened — made popular by ZIRP — and word of them came to us indrectly, via leaked quarterly reported from the likes of Goldman Sachs.

Also, the Powers That Be on Wall Street weren't exactly forthcoming when it came to the OTHER details of QE, namely,
permanent open market operations, or POMOs.

I watched a fair bit of business news about the markets and not once did I hear them talk about the POMO Schedule
on the New York Fed website. They kept the details of that an "open secret" they put this information on the web,
but didn't announce that they were doing so, and didn't tell us where to find it. Again, we had to discover it by referring to
"batshit insane blogs" like Zero Hedge.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZH - POMO SCHEDULE for 2013-02 (February) .jpg Size: 332 KB


(Chart from the NY Fed website.)

So, hedge fund managers would check out the POMO schedule to see when Bernanke would be flooding the system
with cash. (How? By directly buying "non-performing assets," like mortgage-backed securities, from the hedge
funds bosses with cash. Those hedge fund dudes would then buy assets.)

In any given month, during QE, some days were "POMO days," and some days were not. The difference between
them were obvious on the chart, at least when you check the S&P 500.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZH - POMO vs NON-POMO - 2013-05-02 the effect of POMO cash on the S&P 500.jpg Size: 175 KB

(ZH)

These things were not revealed to us at the time, because we are "little people," and Wall St. holds us in contempt.
Explain themselves to little old blunderbuss? Fuck that guy.

My point is... Wall Street didn't bother to tell us about these secrets, so if they actually DO cancel stock buybacks,
then there will be some other "secret policy" put into effect to levitate the S&P 500.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #13,316
  • Edited 10:54am Jun 11, 2016 1:05am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting blunderbuss
Personally, I don't think it's true. I.
interesting, bb, thank you. I remember following the POMO schedule when I traded fx and I recall traders talking about that. I don't recall deriving any edge from that attention, though.

Your premise (if I may be so bold) is that CB's control the stock markets; I can certainly relate to that & I say things in that vein all the time. But is it really true? Or do the markets control the CB's?

I could try to continue this train of thought, but I just finished a bottle of Moscato and I'm kind of sweepy. I'll try again maybe this weekend.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,317
  • Jun 11, 2016 11:00am Jun 11, 2016 11:00am
Quoting blunderbuss
Personally, I don't think it's true. It could be a big problem because one of the safest bets seems to be buying stocks/calls on the "most shorted" shares of the Russell 2000 or the Nasdaq. Here's one of the GIS results from "zerohedge most shorted": .
well, I can believe that - heavily shorted stocks are probably trading way down in their trading range....pushed down by all the shorts....but it's a bull market and many of those names turn the tide and jet up hard as the shorts get squeezed. As always, you have to pick your poison....SUNE, NBG, etc (the pink sheets are full of the bones)...the shorts are there for a reason, after all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,318
  • Jun 11, 2016 11:34am Jun 11, 2016 11:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}interesting, bb, thank you. I remember following the POMO schedule when I traded fx and I recall traders talking about that. I don't recall deriving any edge from that attention, though.
I'm presuming that a lot of Smart Money players are still using the Carry Trade with the USDJPY. I generally track it because Peter Crowns,
the former pit trader, told us it was one of the four currency pairs with the highest volume. (Peter Crowns introduced a lot of us to the
DIBS method, which has a lot of defenders on this board, including myself.) He said, in general, there was more than enough volume
in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY to allow traders to make consistently healthy moves.

P Crowns only did 41 posts, according to his profile page. He contributed mostly on this thread:

No Free Lunch But All The Coffee You Can Drink

...there was a follow-up thread and keeps the DIBS discussion going:

The DIBS Method...No Free Lunch Continues

So, I presume that one of those four would best reflect the moves in the POMO schedule.

Some examples of the correlation between USD/JPY and the S&P 500:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20160609 The correlation between USDJPY and S&P500.jpg Size: 112 KB


Attached Image


Granted, that's only a short time frame. I'll keep an eye out for a weekly chart or a monthly chart
that overlays the two.

Quote
You premise (if I may be so bold) is that CB's control the stock markets; I can certainly relate to that &
I say things in that vein all the time. But is it really true? Or do the markets control the CB's?

The folks on ZH have one chart which demonstrates how the Fed's QE injections have buoyed (that's the correct spelling, BTW)
the S&P 500 since their introduction.

Attached Image


But there are other instances, especially with the USD/JPY, where the CB's interventions are quite deliberate and
obvious... and, often, short-lived. Consider this recent spike, where the BoJ tried to weaken the yen through an
intervention:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 201604 - USDJPY intervention_0.jpg Size: 48 KB


In short, the CBs are using QE and ZIRP in order to influence the direction of asset prices in the same way they
used to rely on charges in the interest rates. As my economics prof once said, the central bank has no direct
control over the prime rate, but it seems to me like there is a covert arrangement between Wall Street and the
Fed we'll bail you out, but you can't just let the stock market plummet, because that makes the Administration
look bad.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #13,319
  • Jun 11, 2016 11:59am Jun 11, 2016 11:59am
Quoting blunderbuss
As my economics prof once said, the central bank has no direct control over the prime rate, but it seems to me like there is a covert arrangement between Wall Street and the Fed we'll bail you out, but you can't just let the stock market plummet, because that makes the Administration look bad.
well, anything's possible. Who are these people on Wall Street, though? Are they among the owners/employees of the record numbers of hedge funds that have closed shop in the last year or so? Plenty of people on WS would love to see the stock market undergo a healthy correction - very difficult to make money in a sideways market, regardless of how you trade it, and sideways is what we have had for the last 2+ years.

For every man Jack that wants the current administration to not look bad, there's another man Jim who wants it to be smeared in shit.

Did ZH publish the oft-seen graph of what the stock market does after initiation of a series of rate hikes by the Fed?

If you want to believe the Fed and some all-powerful cabal on WS are in cahoots, with the ultimate goal of making the current administration "look good", go ahead. L. Ron Hubbard and Bigfoot will be by to pick you up in the UFO later.

I rather take a more organic view. The stock market has been going sideways because the Fed has been going sideways. And the Fed has been going sideways because the major economies on the planet have been going sideways.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,320
  • Jun 11, 2016 12:14pm Jun 11, 2016 12:14pm
Quoting blunderbuss
I'm presuming that a lot of Smart Money players .
bb, don't take this the wrong way, but I'm not going to be very receptive to hosting these types of discussions here. For one thing, I just wanted this to be a thread for options traders who want to talk about their actual options trades - that's why it's in a section of the FF called "Interactive Trading." Also, I'm burnt out on thinking about why the Fed does what it does. I am up to making basic observations that may be tradable: if the Fed begins in earnest a program of ffr normalization, US equities will rally. This flies in the face of the opposing premise alluded to above. But I don't really want to spend a lot of time arguing about it. If you've got some options trades you want to post & talk about, you're welcome to do so.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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