those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #5,821
- Jun 9, 2016 9:07pm Jun 9, 2016 9:07pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,125 Posts
- #5,822
- Jun 10, 2016 5:38am Jun 10, 2016 5:38am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 5,619 Posts
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
- #5,823
- Jun 10, 2016 12:57pm Jun 10, 2016 12:57pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: simmer down now | 1,251 Posts
- #5,824
- Jun 10, 2016 1:02pm Jun 10, 2016 1:02pm
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 7,803 Posts
Loving the volatility in G pairs. GJ moves like a muther.
- #5,827
- Jun 10, 2016 2:14pm Jun 10, 2016 2:14pm
- Joined Apr 2013 | Status: I'm learnding! | 8,973 Posts
- #5,830
- Edited 11:41am Jun 11, 2016 10:43am | Edited 11:41am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
some homework on brexit.
I have read that if Britain leaves the euro zone the gbp may lose 20% of its value against the usd.
60% chance that Britain stays.
eurgbp may go to 0.73 if Britain stays and to 1.0 if britain leaves.
(source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eu...-euro-to-pound)
I went short Friday targeting 0.735 after which i think we will go to 1.0 and above anyhow.
If Britain leaves, the euro will suffer too. Some say even more then Britain but that is not correct according to the above.
I read that about 25% may already be priced into the markets. So if Britain stays we may see 75% less movement but still large. (not completely accurate but don't feel like math)
So if Britain stays the eurusd may go up which is against my analysis of seeing 1.058 first. Perhaps we go to 1.27. I will have to close the short i have at 23 june and straddle.
Of course i gamble Britain stays. i already have a short eurgbp and its 60% chance. If it does not am sure to have an opposite position.
gbpusd is going down anyway.. its just a matter of when. 20% on this chart isn't even that much. so if GB stays, we may go 5% higher, if not we go 20% lower. pennant stays intact either way.
on monthly chart completed pennant with shake out.
conclusion 1: does not really matter what referendum results in long term. gbp is going down. and when pennant target is met it will go up again either way.
conclusion 2: politics does not really matter. Either way they will credit themselves when gbp goes up again. although with brexit it goes down faster so goes up quicker.
I have read that if Britain leaves the euro zone the gbp may lose 20% of its value against the usd.
60% chance that Britain stays.
eurgbp may go to 0.73 if Britain stays and to 1.0 if britain leaves.
(source: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eu...-euro-to-pound)
I went short Friday targeting 0.735 after which i think we will go to 1.0 and above anyhow.
If Britain leaves, the euro will suffer too. Some say even more then Britain but that is not correct according to the above.
I read that about 25% may already be priced into the markets. So if Britain stays we may see 75% less movement but still large. (not completely accurate but don't feel like math)
So if Britain stays the eurusd may go up which is against my analysis of seeing 1.058 first. Perhaps we go to 1.27. I will have to close the short i have at 23 june and straddle.
Of course i gamble Britain stays. i already have a short eurgbp and its 60% chance. If it does not am sure to have an opposite position.
gbpusd is going down anyway.. its just a matter of when. 20% on this chart isn't even that much. so if GB stays, we may go 5% higher, if not we go 20% lower. pennant stays intact either way.
on monthly chart completed pennant with shake out.
conclusion 1: does not really matter what referendum results in long term. gbp is going down. and when pennant target is met it will go up again either way.
conclusion 2: politics does not really matter. Either way they will credit themselves when gbp goes up again. although with brexit it goes down faster so goes up quicker.
- #5,832
- Edited 9:17pm Jun 11, 2016 9:04pm | Edited 9:17pm
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
what have you guys seen from your brokers in regards to margin requirements due brexit vote? i just got an email saying temp doubled..
chf could become more bullish then jpy.
a bull flag on the pair 1h chart.
the target is above the orange wedge but not above the white line on the daily chart. if it breaks will be looking for a long position for a longer term otherwise a short position longer term. the wedge is a bullish sign. i suspect there will be a bump before a break and make an inverted H&S pattern.
on the monthly we bounced of a 50% fib level + support.
- #5,833
- Jun 12, 2016 9:27am Jun 12, 2016 9:27am
- Joined Jan 2010 | Status: .... | 3,910 Posts
this is a cross right?
![Click to Enlarge
Name: 2016-06-12 16_45_51-13651969_ XM.COM-Real 9 - [GBPCHFmicro,Daily].png
Size: 15 KB](/attachment/image/1949429/thumbnail?d=1465750809)
- #5,837
- Jun 12, 2016 3:01pm Jun 12, 2016 3:01pm
- Joined Sep 2007 | Status: simmer down now | 1,251 Posts
- #5,838
- Jun 12, 2016 6:50pm Jun 12, 2016 6:50pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,125 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #5,840
- Jun 12, 2016 7:01pm Jun 12, 2016 7:01pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,125 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can