Let's Trade Options | Page 664 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

BELLA SYSTEM. Let's try it, let's improve it! 118 replies

Let's Trade The News V 0.4 ! 479 replies

Any Options, Bull Options & Option Bit 39 replies

Let's Trade The News! 46 replies

Let a trade develop? 17 replies

Attachments: Let's Trade Options
Exit Attachments

Let's Trade Options

  • #13,261
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:05pm Jun 7, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And "squat" remains the catch word for premium selling; there ain't squat, regardless of whether you look at individual underlyings, sector ETF's, index ETF's ... . You name it. Another slog like last summer ... .
it really don't pay to trade much when the river runs dry. We have July earnings cycle and iv is so low, it might pay to put on some more Jul/Aug DC's - I have CAT (my call calendar at $77.50 and it has got near there already) and AAPL, prolly should shop for a few more.

We have touched on Zika and that's still out there, waiting to happen......we might also consider the effect (on EWZ. etc) of the Worst Summer Olympics Ever, about to go down in just a couple months.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,262
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:05pm Jun 7, 2016 5:05pm
With 16 days to go, I'm not feeling this Brexit-motivated increased market volatility ... at all ... . https://smnweekly.com/2016/06/07/fxp...-requirements/
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,263
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:09pm Jun 7, 2016 5:09pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
And VXX up by a whopping .03 ... . The fear in the markets is "palpable."
hang in there, everything changes, & if it don't, the worst that can happen is we die in poverty and misery, penniless and alone, with only cockaroaches for friends, homeless under a bridge somewhere, and so on...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,264
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:10pm Jun 7, 2016 5:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it really don't pay to trade much when the river runs dry. We have July earnings cycle and iv is so low, it might pay to put on some more Jul/Aug DC's - I have CAT (my call calendar at $77.50 and it has got near there already) and AAPL, prolly should shop for a few more. We have touched on Zika and that's still out there, waiting to happen......we might also consider the effect (on EWZ. etc) of the Worst Summer Olympics Ever, about to go down in just a couple months.....
I should just sit back, relax, and not be a huge crybaby about it ... . Market gods might be giving me a badly needed break here ... . But rolling turds in the dust isn't my idea of trading:

Inserted Video


Lol. (Video's actually funnier than ... well, shit).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,265
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:11pm Jun 7, 2016 5:11pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
With 16 days to go, I'm not feeling this Brexit-motivated increased market volatility ... at all ...
we need to see some good old profit taking, especially in oil, but who knows....????......the Bastards may know that any Brexit victory will be robbed by TPTB, maybe at the last minute.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,266
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:13pm Jun 7, 2016 5:13pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
I should just sit back, relax
I love that dung beetle movie! There's a whole series of them "fun facts" vids on there....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,267
  • Jun 7, 2016 8:06pm Jun 7, 2016 8:06pm
Quoting The Fool
not much new here...
Same here. I bought back my short VXX calls last week, could've gotten a better price this week but never mind. So now long naked Jul $17 and $19 calls, in readiness for the massive volatility surge at the end of June And still got my $17 put calendar spread, which is bleeding away every day at these levels. Oh, and still long my USO $11.5 safety put... should probably get rid of that now.

But on the plus side I seem to be in synch with the Nikkei for a change, my USDCAD short is looking good, and still hanging on with USO (until $13?). So can't complain.

Seriously thinking about getting some pound action via options, but not sure which instrument to use. Nor which strategy come to that. A vertical bear spread on the 6B futures might be good, but the cost (large spreads) and lack of liquidity puts me off. Anyone here trading the pound via options?
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,268
  • Jun 7, 2016 9:49pm Jun 7, 2016 9:49pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Same here. I bought back my short VXX calls last week, could've gotten a better price this week but never mind. So now long naked Jul $17 and $19 calls, in readiness for the massive volatility surge at the end of June And still got my $17 put calendar spread, which is bleeding away every day at these levels. Oh, and still long my USO $11.5 safety put... should probably get rid of that now. But on the plus side I seem to be in synch with the Nikkei for a change, my USDCAD short is looking good, and still hanging on with USO (until...
Well, I think I researched that at one point ... . Unfortunately, there aren't any good proxies for the Pound that have decent options ... . I looked at futures, but passed (due to the same issues you mention). I will play it with FXE options (the Euro proxy) and sell on strength if there's a no vote relief rally of some sort in the Euro ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,269
  • Jun 7, 2016 9:51pm Jun 7, 2016 9:51pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Same here. I bought back my short VXX calls last week, could've gotten a better price this week but never mind. So now long naked Jul $17 and $19 calls, in readiness for the massive volatility surge at the end of June And still got my $17 put calendar spread, which is bleeding away every day at these levels. Oh, and still long my USO $11.5 safety put... should probably get rid of that now. But on the plus side I seem to be in synch with the Nikkei for a change, my USDCAD short is looking good, and still hanging on with USO (until...
You may want to play that Loonie short tightly. If oil caves, that thing will shoot up like a watermelon from a catapult ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,270
  • Jun 7, 2016 9:53pm Jun 7, 2016 9:53pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Well, I think I researched that at one point ... . Unfortunately, there aren't any good proxies for the Pound that have decent options ... . I looked at futures, but passed (due to the same issues you mention). I will play it with FXE options (the Euro proxy) and sell on strength if there's a no vote relief rally of some sort in the Euro ... .
The FXE setup I'll probably use is a debit spread at Euro >1.14 (forget what that level is in FXE --- 112.50?) or a Super Bear which will be a debit spread combined with a credit spread .... . I had a Super Bear setup on for when the Euro briefly hit 1.16, but the SOB didn't fill ... .

Here was the setup: the credit spread part was a 116/112 short call vertical which financed a 112/108 long put vert, but I'd probably go higher price wise with the setup and tighter with the spreads. Basically, you want to get a small net credit for the whole kit and kaboodle, so you have to putz with it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,271
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:05pm Jun 7, 2016 10:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} The FXE setup I'll probably use is a debit spread at Euro >1.14 (forget what that level is in FXE --- 112.50?) or a Super Bear which will be a debit spread combined with a credit spread .... . I had a Super Bear setup on for when the Euro briefly hit 1.16, but the SOB didn't fill ... . Here was the setup: the credit spread part was a 116/112 short call vertical which financed a 112/108 long put vert, but I'd probably go higher price wise with the setup and tighter with the spreads. Basically, you want to get a small net credit for the whole...
The reason why I didn't go just plain jane short call credit spread on FXE is because its IV is constantly low and you can't get squat out of the spread unless you bring it in close to ATM (which is naturally an option), since you're looking to play on retrace from resistance ... . I'd have to look at what you could get for an ATM credit spread (for example, the short call part of the spread .50-1.00 above ATM) versus a debit spread that was, for example, placed slightly below that 112/112.50 resistance area (on the notion that it's going to retrace from that).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,272
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:24pm Jun 7, 2016 10:24pm
Quoting NorthTrader
Anyone here trading the pound via options?
not I, I would trade that via spot if I could. We talked about EWU, which kinda sucks, doesn't move that much, etc....but maybe the Brexit aftermath can be a catalyst? Strangle shown maybe best I could do with it and I'm like,....meh....at least there's some volume in the July chains.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-07_2020ewu.png Size: 67 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,273
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:32pm Jun 7, 2016 10:32pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
The FXE setup I'll probably use is a debit spread...
Thanks for the FXE tip, Zeebs. I'll have a play around with it tonight. The thing that puts me off playing the Euro (or proxy) is that I'm not really sure what it's going to do after the referendum. If the result is "leave", then you'd think that it would drop like a turd... disintegration of the EU and all that. But the obvious moves don't seem to happen these days. The risk-off environment might get everyone selling stocks and buying euros (after yen of course). This has been the recent correlation... stocks down = EURUSD up. There's also the fact it's been very non-plussed so far in the build up, and the poll results. It barely flickered yesterday when GBPUSD spiked up.

Yep, there's no doubt that the GBP is the better choice here in terms of wild moves and IV... but without decent options it's going to be hard.

I hear you about the loonie! It's almost like longing crude. But I was in before NFP and I don't want to lose my position (could be a runner) so I'll sit on my hands for now.

Edit: sorry, I meant "risk-off"
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,274
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:36pm Jun 7, 2016 10:36pm
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thanks for the FXE tip, Zeebs. I'll have a play around with it tonight. The thing that puts me off playing the Euro (or proxy) is that I'm not really sure what it's going to do after the referendum. If the result is "leave", then you'd think that it would drop like a turd... disintegration of the EU and all that. But the obvious moves don't seem to happen these days. The risk-on environment might get everyone selling stocks and buying euros (after yen of course). This has been the recent correlation... stocks down = EURUSD up. There's also...
Yeah. Cable's the mover; Fibre's not ... . Weird that the Euro has become a risk off instrument -- what the hell?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,275
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:38pm Jun 7, 2016 10:38pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}not I, I would trade that via spot if I could. We talked about EWU, which kinda sucks, doesn't move that much, etc....but maybe the Brexit aftermath can be a catalyst? Strangle shown maybe best I could do with it and I'm like,....meh....at least there's some volume in the July chains. {image}
This may be one of those rare cases where I would lotto play a long strangle ... . Put it on cheap; hope for big ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,276
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:44pm Jun 7, 2016 10:44pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
This may be one of those rare cases where I would lotto play a long strangle ... . Put it on cheap; hope for big ... .
I will prolly put something on that EWU strangle, shame tho as iv as been coming up on it last couple months, could got it for <30c a few weeks ago maybe
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,277
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:44pm Jun 7, 2016 10:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}not I, I would trade that via spot if I could.
How would you play it via spot, Fool? No one knows which way it will go! And you'll need huge stops and nerves of steel to survive the spikes
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,278
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:49pm Jun 7, 2016 10:49pm
say friends - are you tired of watching your long vol options trades expire worthless, turning your accounts to shit and otherwise ruining your life? Yeah, me too. Well, one thing I have learned is: you don't gotta be a hero: you don't have to sharpshoot those binary events (well not with all yo risk money, anyway) - put on some spreads with strikes near atm and tons o' time and see if that works for ya. The Jan UVXY $12/$13 calls you might fill for <20c, gives you 8 months to wait for omg something to happen...P/L on a 50-lot shown at Nov opex, the week after Satan wins the US election...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-07_2040uvxy1.png Size: 65 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,279
  • Jun 7, 2016 10:57pm Jun 7, 2016 10:57pm
Quoting NorthTrader
How would you play it via spot, Fool? No one knows which way it will go! And you'll need huge stops and nerves of steel to survive the spikes
I am prolly too far removed from trading cash to give a good answer, but I would maybe suggest this:

definitely include cable in any mix, but also trade the other side with something well correlated. Put something small on either side, b4 the vote, to catch some profit off initial volatility, then after the cards are on the table get long directionally with the favored instrument, because there's likely going to be a trending move over time after the vote.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,280
  • Jun 7, 2016 11:01pm Jun 7, 2016 11:01pm
Quoting The Fool
The Jan UVXY $12/$13 calls you might fill for <20c, gives you 8 months to wait for omg something to happen...
Very nice idea, Fool How much lower can it go? This is so cheap for such a long time period so I might just get me some of those. Thanks!
You reap what you sow.
5 traders viewing now