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Higher low, lower high system

  • #7,281
  • May 26, 2016 4:33am May 26, 2016 4:33am
Quoting Vantage
Made some other posts here http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/ did not trade at all this morning just got to computer. Continue to be amazed at the quality signals the 3 bar reversal is giving in and around the 20lwma. Focused more on GJ these days than GU. The blue areas highlight the HL/LH's in and around the 20lwma and white arrows where the previous 3 bar reversal signaled. {image} {image}
Just wanted to say again am looking for GJ and GU to agree. There was a GU sell 10.55 chart time, GJ did not confirm.
  • #7,282
  • May 26, 2016 5:18am May 26, 2016 5:18am
First post re-written extensively with new templates for what is now as near as damn it is to a swear word a 5 min standalone system. Don't get too hung up on the 3 bar reversal definition. It is merely looking for a reversal and close back into trend over 3 candles.
  • #7,283
  • May 27, 2016 4:26am May 27, 2016 4:26am
A great morning for the 20 lwma and HL/LH's http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...-may-2016.html
  • #7,284
  • May 27, 2016 6:59am May 27, 2016 6:59am
Quoting Vantage
A great morning for the 20 lwma and HL/LH's http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...-may-2016.html
Great stuff.

I trade a similar model to grab the swings on GU during FO and LO but based purely on PA. My experience has shown if you catch the fakes during the London morning you can grab the runners on mornings we trend, and ride the smaller swings on mornings we range. The trick is positioning yourself so you don't get caught on the mornings we run when trying to trade the range or going for the 100 pippers on mornings we're ranging.

I plot my levels on my 1H chart with analysis starting from the Weekly down, mainly looking at 4H and 1H for refined levels of interest. Then I take entries on the 15/5m (primarily 5m; 15m just as context) and then 34tick to catch the subtleties of price action around my levels.

Chart for this morning attached, very similar if not almost identical trades.

1H - http://screencast.com/t/bIIyylXIS0i

5m - http://screencast.com/t/JYDQ5MDgt

For entries I will either take a direct fade into a level, as this often allows for a quick covering of the spread if timed well; a LH/HL retest; or wait for the 5m fractal to form and then take the break and retest of said fractal, or for compression to form within the fractal and trade with the break.

Interested to discuss how you manage the swings on days where she doesn't give any back and continues running for 150+ compared to those where we range. Using my methodology, once in a trade I will wait for a fractal to form at a level and break and hold in the opposite direction before exiting. Sometimes trades need to be closed earlier than this, usually if we've run 'thin' into a level I expect more of an immediate fill, but again this isn't always the case.

Not much of an indicator guy but I like the core of what you're doing, as to me the indicators simply offer some guidance for what the PA is showing regardless.

Can I ask how you traded the morning of the 24th of May?

Great stuff mate; happy weekend
  • #7,285
  • Edited 8:05am May 27, 2016 7:29am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting nhen
Interested to discuss how you manage the swings on days where she doesn't give any back and continues running for 150+ compared to those where we range. Using my methodology, once in a trade I will wait for a fractal to form at a level and break and hold in the opposite direction before exiting. Sometimes trades need to be closed earlier than this, usually if we've run 'thin' into a level I expect more of an immediate fill, but again this isn't always the case. Not much of an indicator guy but I like the core of what you're doing, as to me the indicators...
I see your charts are pretty clean. I tried going completely naked but a small number of indi's does help with back testing according to whatever rules you apply. As I have a business to run also I needed some form of audible alert. The 3 bar reversal is pure price action and without some form of filter the number of signals was crazy. The stoch was added to get rid of some of the false alarms and to catch change of trend and then trend retrace and continuation.

On the runners side for G pairs (ok gnzd might be bigger) if LO has one of those 70/90 pips straight up/down I have the view thats often it for an hour or two. If like today you have good confirmed sell signals and successfully exited and banked I'll re-enter again as I'm happy to risk 15 if 30-40 banked. Here on gj the two sells with the ticks are valid lh's and entry will be taken a pip or two below the lh neg close candle. The x has no lh confirmation as price has not gone below the neg close lh candle, so thats no trade. The right tick is another confirmed lh.

I am looking at scaling in but not gotten right yet. My rules likely to be where a LO move in a direction has failed the opposite direction likely to be good. So in this example a sell in area of 161.00 would be at BE when 2nd sell 160.68 ish. When 2nd trade gets to BE then 1st trade TP would be moved to same area.

On 24th I got the gj hl at 158.50 but did not get the full move up but still a nice trade to the next RN. Mrs V has had her neck done the previous day so had some running around for medicine and TLC.

If LO has had the run as mentioned then the hour or two wait until pre US open would be the way I would go. That move did happen around 1pm chart time on 24th.

See http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...t-sell-gu.html and http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...ic-filter.html
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  • #7,286
  • May 30, 2016 10:11pm May 30, 2016 10:11pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I see your charts are pretty clean. I tried going completely naked but a small number of indi's does help with back testing according to whatever rules you apply. As I have a business to run also I needed some form of audible alert. The 3 bar reversal is pure price action and without some form of filter the number of signals was crazy. The stoch was added to get rid of some of the false alarms and to catch change of trend and then trend retrace and continuation. On the runners side for G pairs (ok gnzd might be bigger) if LO has one of those...
Quoting Vantage
{quote} I see your charts are pretty clean. I tried going completely naked but a small number of indi's does help with back testing according to whatever rules you apply. As I have a business to run also I needed some form of audible alert. The 3 bar reversal is pure price action and without some form of filter the number of signals was crazy. The stoch was added to get rid of some of the false alarms and to catch change of trend and then trend retrace and continuation. On the runners side for G pairs (ok gnzd might be bigger) if LO has one of those...
Thanks for the reply mate.

Yeah indeed, I like to run clean charts with only pivots and levels all on my 1H chart. I have run MAs in the past but always found PA gave me what I needed sooner, but you are correct based on PA the number of discretionary rules can be x10+ compared to when running an indi.

I've thrown up the MA on my GJ chart just to watch as I'm trading GU; GJ is such a beast and for me not as technical as GU (for me) - meaning doesn't fill in the way GU does, doesn't retest fractal breaks the way GU does etc. But of course still swings nicely in the morning.

Regarding the runners, what I like to see is any inefficient runs during the morning get filled so will fade these back into the range. However this obviously falls over on days where we just hit in one direction and don't look back, so a method of keeping you out of the fade trades on these days is needed.

I'll often trade the frankie fake and then usually the first swing of london as well, looking for the next one or the one after to run; using PA on HTFs to give me a view of where I think we're headed.

Will post my trades/what I see this week.
  • #7,287
  • May 31, 2016 3:54am May 31, 2016 3:54am
Quoting nhen
{quote} {quote} Thanks for the reply mate. Yeah indeed, I like to run clean charts with only pivots and levels all on my 1H chart. I have run MAs in the past but always found PA gave me what I needed sooner, but you are correct based on PA the number of discretionary rules can be x10+ compared to when running an indi. I've thrown up the MA on my GJ chart just to watch as I'm trading GU; GJ is such a beast and for me not as technical as GU (for me) - meaning doesn't fill in the way GU does, doesn't retest fractal breaks the way GU does etc. But of...
Feel free to post charts. Yes I know GJ's reputation and certainly on back testing there are some weird and wonderful moves. But watching for either GU agreement (which I did NOT do on my back testing) or yen family strength/weakness when live I must say there has been relatively few funny moves from the beast. This mornings moves http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...-may-2016.html yet again very nice and clean. Most likely done for the day.

Mrs V's procedures (facet joint infiltration x 8 and rhizotomies) now done and all in all very successful. Whilst there is some pain here and there nothing like before and we just have to take things a little easier. So now its the rehab, physio and bio kinetic therapy. Apparently that will be long term stuff.
  • #7,288
  • May 31, 2016 7:18am May 31, 2016 7:18am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Feel free to post charts. Yes I know GJ's reputation and certainly on back testing there are some weird and wonderful moves. But watching for either GU agreement (which I did NOT do on my back testing) or yen family strength/weakness when live I must say there has been relatively few funny moves from the beast. This mornings moves http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...-may-2016.html yet again very nice and clean. Most likely done for the day. Mrs V's procedures (facet joint infiltration x 8 and rhizotomies)...
Here's my GJ chart for the morning; did not catch the drop which was somewhat agonizing Notes on the chart. As you can see I look for reversals during the morning and fade these usually way before the MA offers an entry, can be dangerous but also very fruitful if timed well. Only entry for the reversal would have been the HL but even then the MA was not agreeing until about 11AM GMT.

GJ - http://screencast.com/t/NeEU6lr7XjWy

I'll be keeping an eye on your entry style for GJ as you caught a very nice move this AM, great stuff. I just need to get used to taking a move with momentum, I always try to fade or at least have a retest on momentum trades so it's a hard habit to go against!

Hope your wife is feeling OK mate, sending healthy thoughts your way.
  • #7,289
  • May 31, 2016 7:47am May 31, 2016 7:47am
Quoting nhen
{quote} Here's my GJ chart for the morning; did not catch the drop which was somewhat agonizing Notes on the chart. As you can see I look for reversals during the morning and fade these usually way before the MA offers an entry, can be dangerous but also very fruitful if timed well. Only entry for the reversal would have been the HL but even then the MA was not agreeing until about 11AM GMT. GJ - http://screencast.com/t/NeEU6lr7XjWy I'll be keeping an eye on your entry style for GJ as you caught a very nice move this AM, great stuff....
Just a comment on the retrace to the fractal. Red arrow down. The move back up to 162.88 just after LO was yesterdays high to the pip. In addition to the W and D pivots the pivots indi has days open and Y's high/low (see 1st post for these). When a level like that gets respected time to sit up and take notice.
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  • #7,290
  • May 31, 2016 7:49am May 31, 2016 7:49am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Just a comment on the retrace to the fractal. Red arrow down. The move back up to 162.88 just after LO was yesterdays high to the pip. In addition to the W and D pivots the pivots indi has days open and Y's high/low (see 1st post for these). When a level like that gets respected time to sit up and take notice. {image}
And while you are watching how many other levels get respected also.
  • #7,291
  • May 31, 2016 7:33pm May 31, 2016 7:33pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} And while you are watching how many other levels get respected also.
Indeed, well noted; we actually came back up to try and fill the overlap gap and dropped beautifully again, shame I was sleeping!
  • #7,292
  • Jun 1, 2016 4:18am Jun 1, 2016 4:18am
Fantastic job you have been doing here with your blog Vantage. Many training companies would charge a lot for this information.

I just created my account here at Forexfactory, but I got into trading about 3 years ago. Like many I have tried a lot of different systems, and indicators. My basis has always been price action, but I have to admit that many times I seem to have neglected it during my trading adventure. In the last months I have been putting more focus on price action in combination with obvious SR levels (pivots, round nr's, MA's, etc) and tick volume. My trading results have increased drastically.

I came across your blog as you seem to be trading a similar way I do using hh/ll's. I felt I could use improvement on my entry approach and I have to say I like how you deal with this. I have been reading a lot of the thread and I have done 3 trades this week using your approach, which were only winners.

Apart of the pivots, round nr's and obvious SR levels, I use the EMA 55 and the EMA 200 a lot. I have these MA's plotted on all time frames, where they show me the 55 EMA and 200 EMA levels for the daily/monthly/H4. As price very often response to these levels. Many times these MA's are near pivot points and SR levels and when I see them together in general I will know they will form a strong level.

Keep up the good work and thanks again!
  • #7,293
  • Jun 1, 2016 8:40pm Jun 1, 2016 8:40pm
Fair bit of chop following the signals yesterday morning on GJ. There was a great short off the Weekly R2, if I recall pivot exactly, but went against signals.

Will post my chart later today.
  • #7,294
  • Jun 6, 2016 6:53am Jun 6, 2016 6:53am
Been as sick as a dog for a few days. Still not well, posted these for the record but didn't trade at all http://vantagefx.blogspot.co.za/2016...june-2016.html
  • #7,295
  • Jun 6, 2016 6:57am Jun 6, 2016 6:57am
Quoting Flexo
Fantastic job you have been doing here with your blog Vantage. Many training companies would charge a lot for this information. I just created my account here at Forexfactory, but I got into trading about 3 years ago. Like many I have tried a lot of different systems, and indicators. My basis has always been price action, but I have to admit that many times I seem to have neglected it during my trading adventure. In the last months I have been putting more focus on price action in combination with obvious SR levels (pivots, round nr's, MA's, etc)...
Thank you for those kind words.

Sorry for the late reply but I have been sick. Feel free to post charts, I don't care what indi's are on there as long as theres a db-hl/dt-lh in there somewhere. Heck even the odd 2b trade is OK. Feel free to post a wrap up of the trades from last week if you like.
  • #7,296
  • Jun 6, 2016 11:11am Jun 6, 2016 11:11am
Thank you for your response. During this weak I am going to be testing with an additional entry method, which I am thinking of using a long side your entry method. For this I am using the MADdash indicator (multi timeframe dashboard looking at price's distance from a moving average, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=545718 ), which I had some good success with in the past. If it will be useful I will definitely let you know. Once I am a bit further I will post some charts.

I hope you get better soon!
  • #7,297
  • Jun 7, 2016 4:06am Jun 7, 2016 4:06am
Sick again this morning just posting these for the record. Must have been like watching paint dry for an hour or so after LO with price going nowhere. But yet again in terms of system (HL's, gu-gj agreeing, stoch above 50 which it has to be to get the 3 bar reversal alert arrow up) its again nice to see that once gu signaled 11.05 candle close that there were nice moves. GJ had signaled a few candles earlier.
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  • #7,298
  • Jun 7, 2016 4:59am Jun 7, 2016 4:59am
Very nice trade indeed! Do you use a fixed rule for your profit taking?
  • #7,299
  • Jun 10, 2016 2:47am Jun 10, 2016 2:47am
Quoting Flexo
Very nice trade indeed! Do you use a fixed rule for your profit taking?
Sorry was away again. Absolutely fixed cast in stone no. But in general RN's/75/50/25, W pivots, D pivots proven SR levels. Will also take into acc if its run and if its had a LO fake out i.e. if you get into 1st trade in opposite direction might go a little more. I'm not in to scalp 10 pips generally looking for more than that.

Anyway this was too early for me. GU and EJ signaled GJ didn't. But yen strength and GU agreeing so a nice sell.
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  • #7,300
  • Jun 10, 2016 2:52am Jun 10, 2016 2:52am
The trade I did get was a little later. Dax also gave good early 3 bar reversal signals before and after LO. When I got to computer we had a small bounce off M1, waited for the LH and the low to break. Dax agreeing nice LH. Out for 31 but with the nice $/pip on dax this is a 5% trade. So happy with that and takes the edge off the miss from getting late to the game. See 1min for entry/exit.
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