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Let's Trade Options

  • #13,241
  • Jun 5, 2016 8:06pm Jun 5, 2016 8:06pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Hold on. Hold on. Hope is not lost on a Brexit "nail biter": http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...t-lead-opinium The poll indicates Brexit with a narrow margin over Bremain (43-40%, with a fair chunk in the "undecided" camp).
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-05 - SUN - GBPUSD - opening gap due to the Brexit vote - Leave 45-41 Remain - 8 pm Sunda.png Size: 72 KB


Am waiting for the gap-fill...

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HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #13,242
  • Jun 5, 2016 8:43pm Jun 5, 2016 8:43pm
The problem with this is that it "makes too much sense":

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http://www.futuresmag.com/2016/06/03...uldn%E2%80%99t

"Making too much sense" is the perfect formula for "won't happen in a million years."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,243
  • Jun 5, 2016 8:57pm Jun 5, 2016 8:57pm
stocks will go on a tear if the Fed will walk the walk and really begin normalization. There's no reason to keep the ffr near 0. Of course, The Fed will do what it does and hold off in June - they were never gonna hike on Brexit eve, anyway. Wait....I'm getting some tin foil signals....right, they were never gonna hike until after the election? Got it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,244
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:00am Jun 6, 2016 12:00am
Quoting blunderbuss
Am waiting for the gap-fill...
mmm, sudsy....she looks squeaky clean....pervert
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,245
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:07am Jun 6, 2016 12:07am
Quoting The Fool
16 weeks since the last vix spike, 14/16 red candles....an epic rout
lookit all the otm oi in the VXX Jun calls.....I have rolled down, chasing a dream, running outta risk cash, maybe one more under $15 if it keeps sliding, vain hope for something to move the markets, tin foil hat starting to smell...I may have been struck by lightning without realizing it...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,246
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:17am Jun 6, 2016 12:17am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}lookit all the otm oi in the VXX Jun calls.....I have rolled down, chasing a dream, running outta risk cash, maybe one more under $15 if it keeps sliding, vain hope for something to move the markets, tin foil hat starting to smell...I may have been struck by lightning without realizing it... {image}
I had to stick a fork in a toaster just to see if I was dreaming ... . Nope.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,247
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:22am Jun 6, 2016 12:22am
Unfortunately, my VXX positions require "turmoil," so bring on the "turmoil," short-term or otherwise. http://news.forexlive.com/!/ecbs-vil...o-act-20160604
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,248
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:53am Jun 6, 2016 12:53am
the latter half of 2015 was a happy time for fiber traders.....if the Fed will keep on the hawk and we start to see evil light shining thru the cracks in the EU's decrepit shell, we could see another 2,000 pip slide....maybe 3,000...down to $0.85, as the dreamers dream
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,249
  • Jun 6, 2016 12:58am Jun 6, 2016 12:58am
/es flat & will remain so until JY gives a chat over cheese steak in Philly....so I will have time to throw one more bale of sawbucks into the hopper, before she ...yawn....rocks the world....zzzzzzz
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,250
  • Jun 6, 2016 8:24am Jun 6, 2016 8:24am
Diddly data dependent.....dattly doodly data.....just heard Lockhart on the diddly radadio, sounds pretty dovish, have to expect JY to toe the data dependent line of bs....markets don't believe Fed will hike until after the election, is poised to break out to new ath's.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,251
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:40am Jun 6, 2016 9:40am
S/P up by nearly 10 points but the VIX has hardly moved, no correlation with this up move. VIX normally moves lower Will J Yellen put a stop to the bull later today?
  • #13,252
  • Jun 6, 2016 10:59am Jun 6, 2016 10:59am
Quoting Cecil Gee
S/P up by nearly 10 points but the VIX has hardly moved, no correlation with this up move. VIX normally moves lower Will J Yellen put a stop to the bull later today?
VIX is going up with the S/P, very unusual one is wrong
  • #13,253
  • Jun 6, 2016 4:30pm Jun 6, 2016 4:30pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
VIX is going up with the S/P, very unusual one is wrong
I'm not sure, cuz I don't have access to ToS now, but I think there was contango steepening, as I have options positions out in July and beyond and they were moving a lot....I will know more later. Anyway, another red candle in an endless line of them for UVXY and VXX,,,
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,254
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:07pm Jun 6, 2016 9:07pm
If I have to twiddle my thumbs any more, my thumb joints are going to give out ... . Hate virtually every Dough trader's trades I've looked at (primarily out of boredom). Increasing "occurrences" is all fine and dandy, but if those "occurrences" are going to be shitty occurrences, it's better to work on drying your powder out. You'll wish you hadn't tied up your buying power on those shitty occurrences you put on to have occurrences when something decent comes along ... .

Did roll my short-duration SPX iron condor put sides up a touch for additional credit ... . Hope I didn't get too aggressive with that, but it's all I'm playing in the short term. Do have some SPY IC's sprinkled about that I put on with the last >15 VIX pop we had ... . Some are "troubled"; some aren't. I'll just deal with them "when we get there."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,255
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:12pm Jun 6, 2016 9:12pm
Speaking of SPX (and, relatedly RUT), I personally think that these are the way to go going forward, the primary reason being the lack of assignment risk associated with them. There's nothing worse than sweating bullets around an ex-divvy date when you've got a sketchy SPY spread that could go either way ... . Have you rolled it up and out enough? Are you going to get assigned some ungodly amount of short SPY?

Naturally, you can trade around ex-divvy dates and/or avoid them all together, but those puppies occur once every quarter, and sometimes you just can't help rolling into an expiration subject to ex-div. Lot of shenanigans to work around those ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,256
  • Edited 3:15pm Jun 7, 2016 3:02pm | Edited 3:15pm
not much new here, I continue to roll down VXX and UVXY long calls, buy out of short legs @ < $0.05 - just managing a big pile of vertical spreads now.....this being done cheaply, but even so I am in the hole pretty deep on long vol trades. If we ever see anything in the way of volatility, I could sell some fotm strikes against all the longs I have and get back above water.....if we get anything decent between now and Sept, I have long calls rolled down so low, I still stand to see big returns. For instance, I have VXX $14 Jun 17 calls, Jun 17 UVXY $16.50 calls, Jul 15 VXX calls @ $18, $19, & $21, Jul 22 VXX $15.50 calls....on and on, too much to list....a big stupid testimony to my stupid stupidness.....until shit pops and I'm a genius.

Not feeling it while oil is rallying unless we see the Brexit or some other looming binary event start to cast a pall over the risk-on wet dream...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,257
  • Jun 7, 2016 3:55pm Jun 7, 2016 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
Jul 22 VXX $15.50 calls...
that put on for 6c , week of the RNC Nat'l convention....I am stocking up on popcorn already....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,258
  • Jun 7, 2016 4:51pm Jun 7, 2016 4:51pm
Quoting The Fool
that put on for 6c , week of the RNC Nat'l convention....I am stocking up on popcorn already....
Jul 22 $15.5/$16.00 calls for 6c, damn that was a good trade....UVXY made a green daily poop candle today - by 2 centavos, yep, things are looking up for long vol..........
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,259
  • Jun 7, 2016 4:57pm Jun 7, 2016 4:57pm
Quoting The Fool
not much new here, I continue to roll down VXX and UVXY long calls, buy out of short legs @ < $0.05 - just managing a big pile of vertical spreads now.....this being done cheaply, but even so I am in the hole pretty deep on long vol trades. If we ever see anything in the way of volatility, I could sell some fotm strikes against all the longs I have and get back above water.....if we get anything decent between now and Sept, I have long calls rolled down so low, I still stand to see big returns. For instance, I have VXX $14 Jun 17 calls, Jun 17 UVXY...
Ditto here. VXX Poor Man's Covered Calls looking sad, dejected, and badly in need of a pop. I got three to four weeks until the next roll of a short call; in the meantime, just have to be patient and ride out the brutalization.

Still at 18 setups, cuz shit just ain't coming off with IC call side being tested on this upmove. The most I've been doing is rolling up put side to delta balance or closing out put sides at near worthless as expiry approaches. Did a couple of those today: Jun 10th SPY jobs. I'll need a dip rolling into expiry not to have to roll the call sides of those, one of which has a short call at 210, the other at 211.

And "squat" remains the catch word for premium selling; there ain't squat, regardless of whether you look at individual underlyings, sector ETF's, index ETF's ... . You name it. Another slog like last summer ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,260
  • Jun 7, 2016 5:02pm Jun 7, 2016 5:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Jul 22 $15.5/$16.00 calls for 6c, damn that was a good trade....UVXY made a green daily poop candle today - by 2 centavos, yep, things are looking up for long vol..........
And VXX up by a whopping .03 ... . The fear in the markets is "palpable."
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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