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The Big secret to trading success

  • #601
  • May 22, 2016 7:48pm May 22, 2016 7:48pm
Quoting asgcorp
only downside to writing uncovered puts is this obviously: Unlimited downside risk with little downside protection While the premium collected can cushion a slight drop in the underlying price, loss resulting from a catastrophic drop in the price of the underlying can be huge. The formula for calculating loss is given below: Maximum Loss = Unlimited Loss Occurs When Price of Underlying < Strike Price of Short Put Premium Received Loss = Strike Price of Short Put Price of Underlying Premium received...
Maximum loss on selling naked puts isn't "unlimited".

Example:
Stock trading @ $30.
Sell $28 put for $1.50
Maximum loss is $2,650 if stock goes to zero.

If you sell naked calls then the loss is unlimited because there's not limit to how high a stock price can go. If you sell naked puts the price can only go to zero.
  • #602
  • May 23, 2016 1:12am May 23, 2016 1:12am
Quoting srt
{quote} Maximum loss on selling naked puts isn't "unlimited". Example: Stock trading @ $30. Sell $28 put for $1.50 Maximum loss is $2,650 if stock goes to zero. If you sell naked calls then the loss is unlimited because there's not limit to how high a stock price can go. If you sell naked puts the price can only go to zero.
good point also thank you!
  • #603
  • May 23, 2016 3:02am May 23, 2016 3:02am
Quoting dab
{quote} Sorry for my confusion, are you saying that sometime after 27/4 you started buying G/J with target 161.62 or that you waited with a sell at 161.62? If former, how did you determine when to start buying?
dab, I didn't start buying because I wasn't sure until much later. Every time I've been "sure" about Forex I tend to get my arse kicked.

What happened on 27th/28th the market saw that exactly the same as this mornings gap, the first chance it got it filled it.

That level will be strong resistance on the way up.

Hope that helps

Here's the Gann sq 9 at work, it always does this at MAJOR turning points, make of that what you will.

Roy
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Polishing my crystal ball
  • #604
  • May 23, 2016 7:24am May 23, 2016 7:24am
Quoting 30XTCi
{quote} dab, I didn't start buying because I wasn't sure until much later. Every time I've been "sure" about Forex I tend to get my arse kicked. What happened on 27th/28th the market saw that exactly the same as this mornings gap, the first chance it got it filled it. That level will be strong resistance on the way up. Hope that helps Here's the Gann sq 9 at work, it always does this at MAJOR turning points, make of that what you will. Roy {image}
Thanks for reply. I can understand not having bought if you weren't sure early enough in the piece but then you say it will be strong resistance yet I'm sensing you didn't sell there either. If you tend to get your arse kicked I'd suggest trading smaller position sizes. Staying out all together won't help you learn very quickly (IMO)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #605
  • May 25, 2016 9:33pm May 25, 2016 9:33pm
I FOUND SOMETHING INTERESTING ON A GAWKER THREAD...

There's an article by Hamilton Nolan about hedge funds. The source URL is here.

Hedge Funds Have Sucked For a Decade

Someone posted this "conversation" with a hedge fund manager, who advised a very simple strategy
when dealing with indexes and equities. It is not forex-related, but it's worth a look.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-05-25 (1).png Size: 41 KB


And of course, allow me to post some young models in order to make this post easy to spot.

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Click to Enlarge Name: BODYPAINTING - sexy young things at a convention.jpg Size: 134 KB
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #606
  • May 26, 2016 11:35am May 26, 2016 11:35am
Iguess, everybody wants to know the big secret... In my opinion it is learning a lot, investing in yourself and not to be afraid to risk.
  • #607
  • May 27, 2016 11:49pm May 27, 2016 11:49pm
The answer lies in consistency IMO. Consistency is key. Keep doing it, keep studying it. The difference between you and successful people is that they keep on going. They just won't stop believing on themselves, studying and applying. And that's what makes a successful trader.
  • #608
  • May 28, 2016 4:34pm May 28, 2016 4:34pm
Quoting blunderbuss
I FOUND SOMETHING INTERESTING ON A GAWKER THREAD... There's an article by Hamilton Nolan about hedge funds. The source URL is here. Hedge Funds Have Sucked For a Decade Someone posted this "conversation" with a hedge fund manager, who advised a very simple strategy when dealing with indexes and equities. It is not forex-related, but it's worth a look. {image} And of course, allow me to post...
Cool bodyart 😃 Makes me want to drink a looot of water 😜
  • #609
  • Jun 3, 2016 1:03pm Jun 3, 2016 1:03pm
Glad to see people still contributing to this thread. I just wanted to say something I may have mentioned here or elsewhere before, and that is the importance of predicting what the price is going to do before it does it, not guessing, but following it to see if it falls into the box that conforms to your strategy, waiting for the price to come to you rather then the other way around.

Many people do not use moving averages for example because they claim that because they are lagging indicators they are no use for getting you into a trade. Yes, they are lagging indicators, but their position relative to each other can nevertheless give you advance warning of an impending move rather than the clear signal to trade most people look for, which can be too late.

Personally I never take a trade that I have not seen coming in advance, for knee-jerk reaction and chasing is one of the biggest reasons why so many inexperienced traders lose money.

As the saying goes - plan your trades and trade your plan, because the markets love taking money from people who like to fly by the seat of their pants.
  • #610
  • Jun 3, 2016 11:50pm Jun 3, 2016 11:50pm
Quoting cat
Glad to see people still contributing to this thread. I just wanted to say something I may have mentioned here or elsewhere before, and that is the importance of predicting what the price is going to do before it does it, not guessing, but following it to see if it falls into the box that conforms to your strategy, waiting for the price to come to you rather then the other way around. Many people do not use moving averages for example because they claim that because they are lagging indicators they are no use for getting you into a trade. Yes, they...
cat, great post. Yes, I agree - a person needs to have an idea of the overall context of the market when considering a trade - especially in relation to the higher timeframes. As you said, a trader needs to have a plan. He / she can't just make guesses or enter just because "it feels right" or whatever.

The only thing I slightly disagree with you is about the moving averages. Yes I do think they are great for an advance warning of an impending move. But, the part we slightly differ on is that I believe moving averages CAN be used for a clear signal to enter a trade. No, I do not think anyone should blindly enter just because the 3 ema crossed over the 15 ema (or whatever moving averages one uses). However, if are part of the OVERALL plan and is used in regards to the context of the market and in regards to what the higher TF's are doing, then I certainly believe a trader can enter when there is a signal from their moving average (or more than one MA) of choice. I've been recently demo trading this way and have had success with it.

A big thing, as you said, is to have a plan and then trade that plan. That is what I try to do.
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #611
  • Jun 4, 2016 4:48am Jun 4, 2016 4:48am
Quoting Quickdraw
{quote} cat, great post. Yes, I agree - a person needs to have an idea of the overall context of the market when considering a trade - especially in relation to the higher timeframes. As you said, a trader needs to have a plan. He / she can't just make guesses or enter just because "it feels right" or whatever. The only thing I slightly disagree with you is about the moving averages. Yes I do think they are great for an advance warning of an impending move. But, the part we slightly differ on is that I believe moving averages CAN be used for...
I agree entirely, I use them to enter trades all the time. I have stressed this before many times in my posts, but I didn't do it this time because I wanted to try and impress upon people that using them is not all about waiting for a crossover or for the moving average/s to get beneath or above the price, it is also about recognizing where they are in relation to each other and to the price and understanding the significance of this on which way the price is likely to move. I read so many posts from traders who dismiss moving averages because they are a so called ' lagging indicator ', but this approach merely demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of how to actually use them. What they can do if you fully understand how to use them ( which ones a trader uses is purely discretionary ) is guide you towards a trading opportunity, and very often, along with other indicators such as trend lines, fibs, candlestick formations etc, also give you the signal for a great trade, and very often they can give you an entry signal as a sole indicator apart from price movement which can also be a give away. actually, without the need for any other indicator.

So you are right Quickdraw, they can be used to enter and exit trades, but I was trying to demonstrate here the broad scale of assistance that correct use of moving averages can provide, beyond the limited and widely held assumption that the MA crossover is the only pattern that is any use in trading, and even that, because it lags, is of little value. Their use goes way way further than that, at least with my trading.
  • #612
  • Jun 5, 2016 6:48am Jun 5, 2016 6:48am
Trading with the trend, is what every broker out there teaches. But, if this is such a good strategy why do 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 day?
  • #613
  • Jun 6, 2016 3:48am Jun 6, 2016 3:48am
Quoting klaxxon
Trading with the trend, is what every broker out there teaches. But, if this is such a good strategy why do 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 day?
The strategy is never to blame, it's the trader who is. We are our own worst enemy in the markets so you have to fix that problem first in order to have any chance of success. Not easy, but still possible.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #614
  • Jun 6, 2016 7:30am Jun 6, 2016 7:30am
Quoting killermoney
The answer lies in consistency IMO. Consistency is key. Keep doing it, keep studying it. The difference between you and successful people is that they keep on going. They just won't stop believing on themselves, studying and applying. And that's what makes a successful trader.
Offcours......,, nice words...
Trade fearless not careless...
Syed Mohsin Ali Profit This Month: -845
  • #615
  • Jun 6, 2016 11:45am Jun 6, 2016 11:45am
Quoting klaxxon
Trading with the trend, is what every broker out there teaches. But, if this is such a good strategy why do 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 day?
There are at least two flaws in this logic.

1: While it may be true that 90% of traders lose, it is not necessarily true that 100% of those traders were "trend followers". In fact, the majority of that 90% DO NOT follow trends. They want to catch tops and bottoms to impress faceless people on the internet, family and actual friends. Many get an ego boost out of saying "I bought at the lowest price, or I sold at the absolute highest price.".

2: While brokers may be 100% truthful in teaching trend following as a way to gain an edge, it is absolutely true that markets do not always trend. If fact, the markets don't trend the majority of the time. Many of the 90% have a problem with this, because the obvious conclusion is to TRADE LESS. But most of the 90% seek the "action". They are convinced that if the market is open and moving, there must be trade opportunities. If the 60 minute is not trending, scale down to the 5 minute or the 1 minute. If the Eur/Usd is not trending, trade the Zar/Jpy. Nevermind that the Zar/Jpy had low liquidity and wide spreads and can turn on a dime. But at least it's "action". These "action junkies (read gamblers)" can't phantom the notion of winning more by trading less.

So it would be incorrect to assume that the 90% who lose, lose because they are following the "Machiavellian" advice of the brokers. Brokers do not need to manipulate most traders. In fact, the brokers can give an "edge" away freely, secure in the knowledge that many traders will be themselves and do the opposite....
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #616
  • Jun 6, 2016 6:36pm Jun 6, 2016 6:36pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} There are at least two flaws in this logic. 1: While it may be true that 90% of traders lose, it is not necessarily true that 100% of those traders were "trend followers". In fact, the majority of that 90% DO NOT follow trends. They want to catch tops and bottoms to impress faceless people on the internet, family and actual friends. Many get an ego boost out of saying "I bought at the lowest price, or I sold at the absolute highest price.". 2: While brokers may be 100% truthful in teaching trend following as a way to gain an edge, it is...
Sounds like a sad but true reflection.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
  • #617
  • Jun 26, 2016 5:11pm Jun 26, 2016 5:11pm
I thought this might be of interest...

I realize people have their own special trading techniques for choosing entry and exit points,
but I found a website with a decent discussion about selling covered calls. I took a screenshot,
'cause that's how I kill time. :nerd:

(Granted, this is about options trading, not FX trading, but I thought I'd pass it along.)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-26 - SELLING COVERED CALLS - Stanberry Research dot com.png Size: 60 KB


Something about "generate an incredible half-million dollars in income in just a single year"
got my attention. The idea of buying a vacation home in Tahoe didn't exactly turn me off, either.

Anyway, the link is at the bottom of the image, or you could click here to visit Stansberry Research dot com.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #618
  • Jul 17, 2016 6:46am Jul 17, 2016 6:46am
Attached Image

Pearl for You
Attached Image
IMPROVISE ADAPT OVERCOME
  • #619
  • Jul 17, 2016 11:36am Jul 17, 2016 11:36am
Quoting Id1024
Iguess, everybody wants to know the big secret... In my opinion it is learning a lot, investing in yourself and not to be afraid to risk.
There is no big secret in how to be successfull in trading. and I don't believe in all these brighr books, hundrets of strategies that promise the 100% success. And yes, you are right, only sefl-improvement and hard work with your perception of yourself and forex, can help to to atchieve success
  • #620
  • Jul 21, 2016 3:30pm Jul 21, 2016 3:30pm
Quoting klaxxon
Trading with the trend, is what every broker out there teaches. But, if this is such a good strategy why do 90% of traders lose 90% of their money in 90 day?
I believe I answered this question on the first page of this thread....

" The reason - because it's far easier to try and pick a top or a bottom, or counter-trend trade, than it is to wait patiently for a pullback, identify the point at which the price is about to rejoin the overall momentum, and pull the trigger. I know for a fact that more people attempt to out think the market than go with it - it is human nature to succumb to this tendency to believe we are somehow cleverer than the market, and it is the graveyard for the majority of traders."
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