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High probability live trades

I am interested to hear what the FOMC members Brainard and Mester will say in their speeches...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Quoting Koulus
{quote} Hi asgcorp, the track is absolutely awesome! I would like to thank you for foundation of this thread and also thank to all contributors who keep this thread alive. Guys you are doing great work! I hope I will join you with my views and predictions of markets soon. Keep going and green pips to all.
Quoting raiders
{quote} silver thats an account builder if i ever saw one. no joke 24-27 easy
if Silver breaks 16.42 we will easily see 16.80 if not 17 today.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Quoting manosk
{quote} if Silver breaks 16.42 we will easily see 16.80 if not 17 today.
That's definetly a possibility. I think realistically the 24-27 is prob in the sept timeframe. But it's an amazing return. I mean it's up a few cents today and it's just shy of 3%. It's a monster trade that I think can be set and put on auto pilot. If one got in at these levels of course
Quoting manosk
{quote} if Silver breaks 16.42 we will easily see 16.80 if not 17 today.
Put Buy limit at 16.3 now hoping to get an dip from fib50 at 16.46

And I do good with the USDRUB today . But it is as I think for you long term carry, anyway good to see it heading south again .
Trading in the shadow of SM
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Put Buy limit at 16.3 now hoping to get an dip from fib50 at 16.46 And I do good with the USDRUB today . But it is as I think for you long term carry, anyway good to see it heading south again .
Silver is still a bit troubling to be honest. It is underperforming gold. I would have expected to see a lot more from silver today but maybe it is early.

USD/RUB is good today yes, cannot complain but it is also in my mind underperforming. It should be at 62... Maybe with the new mindset we will see a convergence to fair value.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Quoting raiders
{quote} That's definetly a possibility. I think realistically the 24-27 is prob in the sept timeframe. But it's an amazing return. I mean it's up a few cents today and it's just shy of 3%. It's a monster trade that I think can be set and put on auto pilot. If one got in at these levels of course
I agree, although Sept for 23 seems to me a bit rich but I can see for sure a nice run to 20, which will be still amazing return. And I am bullish for the long term as well, it is just that you need to be prepared to stomach the volatility...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
GBPUSD
And short again .
I have not forgot about the Brexit Poll
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Trading in the shadow of SM
USDMXN

Guys,
Is not following the flow. Good opportunities for shorts there. Or am I missing something ?

Post chart correlated with USDZAR. And it is completely off.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Much wider then I normally has. It was like an emergency SL ( 90 pips but with 2 positions in NZDUSD with risk 2% each so set me back 4% + -2% on the eurusd trade where I also had 100 pips SL ) So it is like a normal weeks profit gone in 60 seconds. But it is OK. Without risk we can not gain anything. And sometimes we get hit with full force. And to trade Nonfarm days is not easy to do with an 10 pips SL. So when trading Non farm days I trade smaller positions and bigger SL.
I was with you on NZD/USD Earleone, and also got a black eye for a SL above .69. Also had a pending buy for USD/CAD triggered that I didn't expect to be touched for a while, which got stopped out almost as soon as triggered, and was holding a short on AUD which was in profit, now wiped out. As Asgcorp mentioned in an earlier post, maybe not a good idea to have open trades when NFP comes out! I will remember to stay out next month.
Quoting MisterG
USDJPY looming short {image} {image} G.
In case if any of you doubt in the price action. Check out my previous post that I am quoting and see how that forecast turned out.
forecast ( if you are too lazy to read the previous post )
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After the forecast
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Well that's about it
G.
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Man lie , woman lie , numbers don't
ucad...nice pips 220pips...
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Quoting Blackopal
{quote} I was with you on NZD/USD Earleone, and also got a black eye for a SL above .69. Also had a pending buy for USD/CAD triggered that I didn't expect to be touched for a while, which got stopped out almost as soon as triggered, and was holding a short on AUD which was in profit, now wiped out. As Asgcorp mentioned in an earlier post, maybe not a good idea to have open trades when NFP comes out! I will remember to stay out next month.
Sorry for your losses to.
I had also many pendings , but I use buy stop limit , and sell stop limit a lot so actually non off them was triggered since price was just rushing true them ( It is a missing function in Metatrader 4 but is possible to do by bridging from Ninjatrader or with advanced trade manager plugins for Metatrader )

If you are not familiar with that function I explain short here:
I had f.ex for EURUSD placed an sell stop limit order at 1.11715 . If that price is reached it is placed an sell stop order X pips below ( I had 5 pips below)
Since price was rushing true this level ( that was fib 50 last leg ) the pending order is not triggered and I could just cancel the order. If I had used a Sell limit order that traders using Metatrader4 mostly do it would have been triggered and would have been a SL. ( Metatrader5 has the function sell and buy stop limit orders)


Longer term trades I let run on also big events like FOMC and Nonfarm, ECB etc. But I protect by trailstop . I had 2 positions for GBPUSD taken out in small profit.
I will continue to trade big events/News when I see what I think can be good trades. It is actually when the market takes this big moves we can gain a lot or lose a little. But to win we need be on the rigth side and have the R:R correct and SL placed where we are not taken out if we are rigth. If we had been getting an overshoot for Nonfarm the other way or numbers around expectation we could have made a lot more pips then we lost and that is what is important. And on events like this we now that price often do a bull/bear trap to even take out the trades that is in the correct direction and I use bigger SL trading during this events. I was fundamental in an short term bullish outlook for USD up to USD Index 97 ( Until FOMC June ). Now that is changed to Neutral. NZDUSD had been going against the bull run we had in USD for the last period and was overbought and at nice levels. I think mistake for me was to use to big SL this time. And maybe should have waited with entry to after Nonfarm numbers and traded breakout on smaller TF and/or used sellstop limit orders. It could have saved the day.
Trading in the shadow of SM
What you think is the coming FOMC. last nfp data was worst but unemployment rate is good. i am expecting your views what you think june rate will hike or not ? if you give some reason then it will be more valuable to the new trader..

from my view, rate will hike or not the movement will be huge... expecting 100-300 pips
Quoting Earleone
USDMXN Guys, Is not following the flow. Good opportunities for shorts there. Or am I missing something ? Post chart correlated with USDZAR. And it is completely off. {image}
I like exotic currencies and I really like trading them (also because they are great carry trades) but I have found that at least concerning USDZAR there are a lot of intricacies that one needs to consider, a lot of political and domestic risk, and whenever I traded it, although I made good money it was always full of headaches. I dont see that in other more "developed" currencies such as RUB or PLN so I decided to keep my hands off ZAR and MXN. Seeing MXN now, something seems off and I would need to dig deeper to understand what is keeping it there because it is a petro-currency so there should have been some move to the downside.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Quoting manosk
{quote} I like exotic currencies and I really like trading them (also because they are great carry trades) but I have found that at least concerning USDZAR there are a lot of intricacies that one needs to consider, a lot of political and domestic risk, and whenever I traded it, although I made good money it was always full of headaches. I dont see that in other more "developed" currencies such as RUB or PLN so I decided to keep my hands off ZAR and MXN. Seeing MXN now, something seems off and I would need to dig deeper to understand what is keeping...
. I was reading up a little bit on fundamental for usdmxn during the weekend. It is underperforming IMO. Main reason as I understand it is fear for election in US and Trump that is keeping it from moving. Economy in Mexico is strong so it has potential Also as I understand there is risk for rate hike and that would also help strengthening if so happens.
Trading in the shadow of SM
Quoting Earleone
{quote} . I was reading up a little bit on fundamental for usdmxn during the weekend. It is underperforming IMO. Main reason as I understand it is fear for election in US and Trump that is keeping it from moving. Economy in Mexico is strong so it has potential Also as I understand there is risk for rate hike and that would also help strengthening if so happens.
I agree with you, I was thinking the same thing about MXN without having read too much about it. The Trump factor is scary for MXN but still it doesnt explain the resilience of the cross to correct accordingly. Of course as I have also noted on the USD/RUB, RUB is also away from fair value because it hasnt appreciated according to the oil appreciation, as the correlation shifted to the USD Index which was going up and prevented the USD/RUB from breaking down. I regard these as temporary imbalances and eventually we should see things converging. The only real question (and I am saying this because truly these currencies are governed by fundamentals) is whether there is structurally something in Mexico which could the throw the trade in the air
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Quoting manosk
{quote} I agree with you, I was thinking the same thing about MXN without having read too much about it. The Trump factor is scary for MXN but still it doesnt explain the resilience of the cross to correct accordingly. Of course as I have also noted on the USD/RUB, RUB is also away from fair value because it hasnt appreciated according to the oil appreciation, as the correlation shifted to the USD Index which was going up and prevented the USD/RUB from breaking down. I regard these as temporary imbalances and eventually we should see things converging....
I can not find any structurally factors inside Mexico. Maybe someone else with closer knowledge. But from history last year every flip from bullish to bearish on daily has happened after strong momentum ( Strong bullish move ) And it is not a very clear bullish move at the end bullish swing here so maybe still to early.
Trading in the shadow of SM
Quoting manosk
{quote} if Silver breaks 16.42 we will easily see 16.80 if not 17 today.
It is going to be hard for XAG to break 16.45 but once this is done it is going to fly
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
Quoting Earleone
GBPUSD And short again . I have not forgot about the Brexit Poll {image}
Scaling in and out . So far closed 118 pips for single positions. If target will be reached all losses from Nonfarm for nzdusd and eurusd covered +++ ) But it need some distance to move. The gap worries me a little bit.
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