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Attachments: Before or after the fact?
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Before or after the fact?

  • #61
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:04am Jun 2, 2016 10:04am
I posted two follow up chart in my thread. I don't want to drag this out on this thread in case it is inappropriate.
  • #62
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:49am Jun 2, 2016 10:49am
Quoting GEfx
I posted two follow up chart in my thread. I don't want to drag this out on this thread in case it is inappropriate.
What about sl, entry and tp? You said it may come down to that hidden gap area, did you take the short? There was a pretty nice pa on the 4 hour.
  • #63
  • Jun 2, 2016 11:33am Jun 2, 2016 11:33am
Quoting NaughtyPip
{quote} What about sl, entry and tp? You said it may come down to that hidden gap area, did you take the short? There was a pretty nice pa on the 4 hour.
I thought the thread was about advanced analysis, not the actual trades. But yes, I built a position of 6 trades on the down move, while, in a separate account, kept my long position in place, until I took half of that position off. I could go back and put in the actual trades, if that would be of interest, but I was under the impression we were talking about advanced planning and analysis.
  • #64
  • Jun 2, 2016 1:25pm Jun 2, 2016 1:25pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I thought the thread was about advanced analysis, not the actual trades. But yes, I built a position of 6 trades on the down move, while, in a separate account, kept my long position in place, until I took half of that position off. I could go back and put in the actual trades, if that would be of interest, but I was under the impression we were talking about advanced planning and analysis.
You are right. I mis read the first post.
  • #65
  • Jun 2, 2016 1:43pm Jun 2, 2016 1:43pm
I never ever work with targets, I let the market tell me when reverse ... your thinking seems pretty alien to me
  • #66
  • Jun 2, 2016 4:05pm Jun 2, 2016 4:05pm
Quoting cvds16
I never ever work with targets, I let the market tell me when reverse ... your thinking seems pretty alien to me
That is off topic, but from what I've read here at FF, you are not alone in your approach and thinking. Good trading!
  • #67
  • Jun 3, 2016 3:12am Jun 3, 2016 3:12am
Quoting cvds16
I never ever work with targets, I let the market tell me when reverse ... your thinking seems pretty alien to me
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  • #68
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:31am Jun 3, 2016 8:31am
When you play poker, do you predict next card on the deck? No, you don't because you can't. You manage your hand in the present.

Regards,
Alex
  • #69
  • Jun 3, 2016 8:45am Jun 3, 2016 8:45am
Quoting alexx90
When you play poker, do you predict next card on the deck? No, you don't because you can't. You manage your hand in the present. Regards, Alex
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #70
  • Jun 3, 2016 9:25am Jun 3, 2016 9:25am
Quoting alexx90
When you play poker, do you predict next card on the deck? No, you don't because you can't. You manage your hand in the present. Regards, Alex
Not only is this off topic, it's not even about trading the forex. I think you were looking for Poker Factory or something?
  • #71
  • Jun 3, 2016 10:25am Jun 3, 2016 10:25am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Not only is this off topic, it's not even about trading the forex. I think you were looking for Poker Factory or something?
If you can't grasp the essence of what I said it is not my problem Keep judging people and your trading will improve

Regards,
Alex
  • #72
  • Jun 3, 2016 11:15am Jun 3, 2016 11:15am
Quoting alexx90
{quote} If you can't grasp the essence of what I said it is not my problem Keep judging people and your trading will improve Regards, Alex
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #73
  • Edited 1:14pm Jun 3, 2016 1:02pm | Edited 1:14pm
Quoting alexx90
{quote} If you can't grasp the essence of what I said it is not my problem Keep judging people and your trading will improve Regards, Alex
Sorry, but your "essence" and your last post are equally incoherent. But you are amusing the hell out of tooslow. Sorry but this little pissing match is also off topic.

Edit: alexx90, I reviewed some of your contributions to FF. Please disregard my comments and put me on your ignore list. I have no time for the bullshit you are producing.
  • #74
  • Jun 5, 2016 11:49am Jun 5, 2016 11:49am
The whole sentence should be 'before, during or after the fact?'

The key is DURING the trade. THIS is what puts money in the bank, irrelevant of what occurs before or after.

Before the trade you have engagement rules, it either happens or it doesnt. End off.
After the trade you either move on to waiting mode or you start with the 'coulda-woulda-shoulda'. Tweak? Curve fit? slippery slope.

Any and all moves the market throws at you it has done before and will do again.

The difference lies in how you 'manage' your position - no matter what the market throws at you.

Any trade i take has the following elements:

1) Entry - Specific reasons to enter at certain prices.
2) During - Specific reasons to either add / hold / reduce.
3) Exit - Specific reasons to exit full position.
4) Dont Trade - Specific reasons/conditions.

No matter if you follow or fade, no matter if it converges or diverges from your framework, as long as you account for these then what else is there to look at before or after? Your 'system' either tells you how to execute, or it doesnt.

PS: Heres an 'after the fact' example. Means absolutely nothing, doesnt it?
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  • #75
  • Jun 5, 2016 2:06pm Jun 5, 2016 2:06pm
Quoting Pipalicious
PS: Heres an 'after the fact' example. Means absolutely nothing, doesnt it?
Yes, you're right - it means absolutely nothing.

This thread was intended to discuss...

Quoting simond2002
traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position.
...not, individual trading process - plenty of debate regarding that.
  • #76
  • Jun 6, 2016 2:02pm Jun 6, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting simond2002
{quote}traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position.
I totally get what your saying and ive said it in the past - there is no right or wrong way, only the way that works. As opposed to taking a 'forceful view' people should have an open mind and simply take what they can use and discard the rest. And lets be honest, no 'forceful view' can hold its own weight if there is nothing to substantiate. Of course, that is down to everyone else to research and test such 'views', for in the end they may find out its total bollocks. Id rather get it done and move on. Let the ego tripping stunts to the rest...

The 'basic' core for what i look for is momentum / divergence/convergence in momentum. I look at the market for what it is - a single entity - for the whole market is a product of many subproducts. If certain conditions/reasons dont appear, i simply dont trade. And even there i still fuck up majorly as i did today at 17.30. Having said that my trading today (for what its worth) was appaling haha 'coulda woulda shoulda'...

I certainly believe (and know) there are others ways to trade, of course nobody will share the goose....

My 2 cents
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  • #77
  • Edited 4:07am Jun 7, 2016 3:51am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting Pipalicious
{quote} I totally get what your saying and ive said it in the past - there is no right or wrong way, only the way that works. As opposed to taking a 'forceful view' people should have an open mind and simply take what they can use and discard the rest. And lets be honest, no 'forceful view' can hold its own weight if there is nothing to substantiate.
Couldn't have put it better myself. For me it's become a kind of check and balance for which threads to contribute to and which threads to contribute no longer.

Regarding the "woulda coulda shoulda", there was a guy I used to trade with who suggested to me what I've found to be a brilliant and very simple tool. It's just a handwritten sheet of paper to keep to close by. Here's an example :-

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Whenever we see a setup that conforms to our trading method we fill in the sheet. It's the trades we don't take, and the reasons why, that over a period of time (even just one week for day-traders) can help identify patterns of behaviour/certain areas to work on etc. It's one thing to know that there may be aspects of our method that need dealing with, but to actually see it written down on paper really helps.
  • #78
  • Jun 7, 2016 11:40am Jun 7, 2016 11:40am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Not only is this off topic, it's not even about trading the forex. I think you were looking for Poker Factory or something?
Not sure how you took this as being off topic. All he is saying is you need to manage your open trades based on the current conditions of the market. So for him, it's not before or after the fact analysis that helps the most, it's the analysis done while you are actually in the trade that is most important so you can adjust your trade to the current market condition. I also think this is the most important analysis.

Just because a trade looked good before you entered it, does not mean it will look the same as the trade plays out. I know you hate the poker example but I think they fit pretty well. Just because you start off with pocket Aces(the best hand you can start with) does not mean it's a winning hand, what if there are 4 suited cards down on the table? You are likely not going to win with an Ace pair as someone most likely has a flush, so your before the fact analysis, "great hand", has turned bad as the game progressed and you need to adjust(call/fold) because of this, otherwise you are playing a bad hand and will most likely lose.

Sports is another great example that shows during the game analysis is the most important. You can watch all the old tapes you want of your opponents and plan accordingly. It does not guarantee that the team will play how they did in the tapes. What if the team starts playing completely differently than how you viewed them in the tapes? You need to adjust to their new play style as all of the "before the game" analysis is no longer relevant to the current game.

Adjusting your strategy as the game progresses is also the same rational that allowed Kasparov to beat Deep Blue(chess computer) in 1996. The computer can only do before the fact analysis while Kasparov was able to change his analysis as the game progressed, and since the computer could not do this, simple moves made by Kasparov that the computer did not expect based on the computers analysis, threw the computer off and allowed Kasparov to beat it. The computer was finally able to beat Kasparov in 1997 once IBM would adjust the computers settings as the game series progressed.
  • #79
  • Jun 7, 2016 12:33pm Jun 7, 2016 12:33pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Not sure how you took this as being off topic. All he is saying is you need to manage your open trades based on the current conditions of the market. So for him, it's not before or after the fact analysis that helps the most, it's the analysis done while you are actually in the trade that is most important so you can adjust your trade to the current market condition. I also think this is the most important analysis. Just because a trade looked good before you entered it, does not mean it will look the same as the trade plays out. I know...
I completely understand what you are saying, but per the OP:

"This thread was intended to discuss...
Quoting simond2002
traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position.
...not, individual trading process - plenty of debate regarding that."

I think what you are commenting on is more individual trading process-related discussion. The topic of the thread related more to how FF participants attain credibility in their posts and comments, whether by providing proof of their analysis and trading prowess before a discussion of trading; or after the fact, here-is-what-I-may-have-done-before-a-trade-but-will-not-provide-real-time-before-the-trade-analysis-to-prove-I-really-know-what-I-am-talking-about posts.
  • #80
  • Last Post: Jun 7, 2016 1:31pm Jun 7, 2016 1:31pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I completely understand what you are saying, but per the OP: "This thread was intended to discuss... Quoting simond2002 traders who enter discussions here on FF, may take a quite forceful view on how and how not to trade, and yet are unable (or unwilling) to present any form of before-the-fact analysis to substantiate their position. ...not, individual trading process - plenty of debate regarding that." I think what you are commenting on is more individual trading...
Sorry about that. I miss interpreted what the OP was trying to discuss. In that case I can see how it could be off topic.

Also, in that case, I think a participant gains most credibility when they provide information that can proven or that is backed by sound logic and verifiable data. I also think that before the fact analysis, coupled with a during/after the fact follow up builds more credibility than just an after the fact follow up or just a before the fact analysis.
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