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Simple, Powerful and Effective Price Action Trading Strategies

  • #721
  • Apr 29, 2016 8:42am Apr 29, 2016 8:42am
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After the big drop on the AUD this week, we've been watch for retracements to find opportunities to position in with any further continued bearish momentum.

The bearish move basically did push all the technicals on the daily chart into bearish territory: price closing on the negative side of the mean, and a close below an important weekly level after trying to break higher.

Now that price has retraced back up a bit, it is re-testing the weekly resistance level - we can already see some rejection of further higher prices as price reacts with the level.

When you drop down to the 4 hour chart...

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There is a nice reversal candle sitting right under our resistance level from the daily chart.

This could be the 'early warning sign' of a pending bigger sell off.

If price does hold under this resistance level, and breaks the lows of the outside candle on the h4 chart - it could be worth a shot a going short.

If it's going to drop here, the move could be decent!

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #722
  • May 9, 2016 11:55pm May 9, 2016 11:55pm
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This session we've got a nice crisp looking trend line that has developed here on the 4 hour chart of the EURAUD market.

Price has been moving aggressive to the upside here, using this trend line as a supportive structure to terminate counter trend movements.

The daily chart looks very extended from its mean, and shows price has moved too fast too quick.

I am waiting to see if we can get a 4 hour candle to close on the negative side of the trend line structure to consider short trades.

In my opinion, when this trend line fails to hold, we are probably going to get a nice sell off.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #723
  • May 10, 2016 7:59am May 10, 2016 7:59am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
{image} This session we've got a nice crisp looking trend line that has developed here on the 4 hour chart of the EURAUD market. Price has been moving aggressive to the upside here, using this trend line as a supportive structure to terminate counter trend movements. The daily chart looks very extended from its mean, and shows price has moved too fast too quick. I am waiting to see if we can get a 4 hour candle to close on the negative side of the trend line structure to consider short trades. In my opinion, when this trend line fails to hold, we...
i have that one on my radar too
  • #724
  • May 17, 2016 4:43am May 17, 2016 4:43am
The EURAUD drifted sideways out of the trend line, and I got stopped out of that one, but now it looks like it is going to drop.

Now looking at a potential flag break that has developed on the EURCAD

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We've got a potential bullish breakout developing on the EURCAD pair this session.

The market has developed a bullish flag pattern after a recent strong upward rally. These flag patterns are created when a short-term counter trend, trend line develop acting as a barrier to further upward development.

If we get a candle close beyond the flag, we could see the next move into higher highs.

We've also got a support level here encouraging bullish price action, and we can see there is a bullish rejection candle developing off the level also.

If we don't get the flag break this session we still may be left with an end of day reversal signal anyway.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #725
  • May 23, 2016 5:33pm May 23, 2016 5:33pm
Just following up on the Flag break here:

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We recently looked at a bullish flag setup on the EURCAD daily chart.

The market moved into higher highs after a strong rally, then developed a counter-trend flag line – which price used as temporary resistance.

Now the market has broken through the flag pattern, we’ve not a nice bullish inside day sitting there that we can build a breakout trade off.

If the highs of the inside day are broken, then it could be the catalyst for the next push up into higher highs.

Everything on this chart now is screaming bullish technically, and the inside day even had a thick bullish body.

I would recommend waiting until London open before getting involved with this, as we don’t want to be triggered into a breakout during the Asia session.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #726
  • May 24, 2016 12:11pm May 24, 2016 12:11pm
Quoting DnBPriceAct
I would recommend waiting until London open before getting involved with this, as we dont want to be triggered into a breakout during the Asia session
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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So this is a good example of how early session breakouts can be deceptive.

This inside say broke its highs during the Asia session, which means we didn’t enter it.

Just after London come online the breakout that occurred during the Asia session collapsed, and the market dropped hard as it continued into the US session.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #727
  • May 24, 2016 9:41pm May 24, 2016 9:41pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Some nice price action for this week on the EURNZD daily chart.

We can see a recent trend line support has been breached. Price did move slightly lower after the breaks, but then retraced back up to test the old trend line as new resistance.

This is common price action behavior for a breakout event, and it creates a nice swing trading opportunity.

We’ve got a nice thick bearish bodied rejection candle here for this session, which adds to to the value of this bearish trade idea.

Looking to grab retracement entries, but the market did bleed lower a little at the session open.

Now we’re seeing some retracement price action come in, so there is still a chance the retracement entry limit order may be hit.

If it doesn’t get hit, I would be looking for short opportunities after London open using our breakout methods.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #728
  • May 31, 2016 1:30am May 31, 2016 1:30am
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A lot of action going on across the AUD pairs this Asia session. Some news came out for the Aussie better than expected and drove these markets out of their consolidation structures.

First one is the AUDCHF market which I've been watching.

There has been a nice price squeeze pattern here, which has now broken to the upside. Due to the rapid move from the news, I was unable to catch this breakout.

I am looking to see if the market corrects here and re-tests the old consolidation structure resistance as new support.

Next market I am also interested in is the AUDNZD...

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There was an inside candle that formed over the weekend. I checked out the 4 hour chart to see what was happening there and noticed this box structure.

This box will looking like a ranging market on even lower time frames. Nevertheless - it's a structure which the market will 'break' from.

Aligning with the AUD strength, the box has broken the high side as we can see the bullish breakout candle.

Again, the move was too explosive to catch, so now I am looking to see if we get a correction back into the old box structure resistance, and see if it holds as new support.

A bullish reversal signal here will be a very nice h4 swing trade opportunity.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #729
  • May 31, 2016 9:20pm May 31, 2016 9:20pm
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Unfortunately, we didn't see that clean buy signal off old support we were looking for.

Instead price dropped back down into the box structure, then broke the bottom, and now looks like it is bouncing back up again.

This has become a messy situation that is best avoided. However, no money was invested here because no signal generated when the structure was re-tested.

This is a good example of how confirmation with candlestick signals can save your butt.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #730
  • Jun 1, 2016 1:47am Jun 1, 2016 1:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I was watching the NZDUSD for a potential sell signal there. When the 4 hour candle closes, it didn't look so appealing, but the battle station did actually send an alert for a few NZD cross pairs.

The NZDCAD caught my eye, for when we do our top down analysis - the daily chart shows a ranging market.

This 4 hour bearish pin bar reversal candlestick has formed right at the daily range resistance area suggesting lower prices.

If we get another range cycle, there is a lot of reward potential here if we can ride the move down to range support.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #731
  • Jun 3, 2016 2:03am Jun 3, 2016 2:03am
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I noticed a potential setup building on gold today.

Price has slammed into a weekly support level, and when you look at the weekly chart you see a ranging market.

If the weekly range does hold, we could see gold cycle back up to the range top over the next couple of weeks.

There is an inside day sitting on support, no big deal on it's own - but I noticed it is developing into a breakout trap and reverse trade.

The lows have already been broken during the Asia session, now price is reversing back up as we trade into London.

If the highs break, it could trigger the push into higher highs and kick off the next cycle of the range.

NFP is coming out this session, so if NFP does stimulate the gold bulls - we could see this trade idea triggered.

- The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #732
  • Jun 6, 2016 9:06pm Jun 6, 2016 9:06pm
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This signal was pointed out by war room member ericdledoux – a big shout out to you.

We’ve got a nice looking reversal signal here – the bullish rejection candle, which was printed in a ranging market here on the GBPJPY.

The market is clearly bouncing between the range high and low structure, and the bullish rejection candle signals that the range bottom is likely to hold, and a market cycle back to the range top is on the table.

The anatomy of the rejection candle is in good form, a very positive close in the candle range, giving that thick authoritative bullish body.

Going to see if we can grab a retrace entry, otherwise breakouts of the high after London open might be an alternate entry strategy.

The GBP should be volatile this month as speculation of the outcome of the BRexit event will drive price movement.

Best of luck on the charts - The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #733
  • Jun 11, 2016 3:53am Jun 11, 2016 3:53am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd mean reversion.png Size: 49 KB


The NZD rally this week as caused most NZD pairs light up this week, including the EURNZD which is the chart I am eyeballing going into next week.

We've seen a very very large drop in this market, where the intense selling as created a massive hole between the actual bid price and the mean value.

Generally when you get extreme gaps like this, it's like pulling back on a bow and arrow, when it lets go - the return move is just as violent, as the market does not like to sit around at this extreme prices at all.

So the mean gap is going to encourage buying.

But we've also got another technical reason here for bullish price action to kick in, and that's the weekly support level.

These weekly levels are where you normally see the market bounce, and since we've already seen the seller dump the price here - we can only assume that they are going to be some what exhausted.

Price will take the path of least resistance, and right now that looks like it is to the upside.

We've already seen the bulls starting to enter the market off the weekly support. Going into next week, I am expecting a much more aggressive bullish response.


Best of luck on the charts - The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #734
  • Jun 11, 2016 4:34pm Jun 11, 2016 4:34pm
It would be nice to see a trade explorer from you, in which you show us your positions based on your recommendations. I ask because since you are mainly trading the "daily" tf, even if you end up guessing the correct direction, your drawdown in pips makes it very hard to even risk 2% of your account.
@GJscalper I've turned a new leaf. No more trolling.
  • #735
  • Jun 11, 2016 7:44pm Jun 11, 2016 7:44pm
Quoting GJscalper
It would be nice to see a trade explorer from you, in which you show us your positions based on your recommendations. I ask because since you are mainly trading the "daily" tf, even if you end up guessing the correct direction, your drawdown in pips makes it very hard to even risk 2% of your account.
Can you please explain what " drawdown in pips " means? And why it's hard to risk 2% ?

Because if the risk is 2%, position size is adjusted to the number of pips to the stop loss, so it doesn't matter the number of pips.

If it 20 pips, you lose 2%, if it is 200 pips it is still 2%

I guess a scalper you can't handle to see any draw down, either in pips or $$$

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #736
  • Jun 11, 2016 8:23pm Jun 11, 2016 8:23pm
Don't waste you're energy on this troll.

He sent me a message on twitter calling me faker because I don't have a myfxbook.

This guy has had a myfxbook for ONE month, and banging his chest because he has turned over $1000 profit with 176 trades.

Mate - I take ONE trade and can make $7000 - $10,000. If you want proof of that, go watch my Forex price action videos.

As you pointed out Erebus, this guy has no concept of real risk management because he made the noob comment about stops being too big on the daily chart.

Keep your myfxbook open for us to see @GJscalper, brag now while you can because I look forward to coming back a few months later and throwing your burnt up account back in your face.
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #737
  • Jun 16, 2016 2:16pm Jun 16, 2016 2:16pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.png Size: 125 KB


The NZD currency has been a really strong market, maybe because it is holding high interest rates.

We've just seen the NZD aggressively rally last week and over extend itself. We expected a correction, and we did see a mean reversion sell off, but it didn't last too long before strength entered the market again.

Now we're seeing price print higher lows on the 4 hour, a sign of strength.

A battle station alert came through, alerting war room traders to a bullish engulfing candle. This should really be called a rejection candle because of the long wick, but non the less a reversal signal all the same.

We can see a nice swing level here the market is reacting with, and of course the signal aligns with the over all strength in this market.


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A similar signal on the NZDJPY 4 hour chart.

This one looks like a stronger reversal signal. It has a strong bullish anatomy and has formed at a major weekly support level.

When you get these strong reversal signals around these strong weekly levels, there is a good change you're going to see some follow through.

If this one takes off, it could be a high reward trade...

Lets see how these trades play out. Best of luck on the charts, and stay cool for the BRexit event!

Best of luck on the charts - The Forex Guy
Obsessed with Price Action Trading, Swing Trading & Breakout Strategies
  • #738
  • Jun 26, 2016 3:06am Jun 26, 2016 3:06am
Quoting DnBPriceAct
Don't waste you're energy on this troll. He sent me a message on twitter calling me faker because I don't have a myfxbook. This guy has had a myfxbook for ONE month, and banging his chest because he has turned over $1000 profit with 176 trades. Mate - I take ONE trade and can make $7000 - $10,000. If you want proof of that, go watch my Forex price action videos. As you pointed out Erebus, this guy has no concept of real risk management because he made the noob...

Then why not post a trade history?
I mean you only have profitable videos over there... i do like your site and style, but the question above was about the drawdown...
  • #739
  • Sep 4, 2016 9:13pm Sep 4, 2016 9:13pm
gbpcad formed an inside bar on weekly level, i am expecibg it bearish, what you say guys, please comment bellow.
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  • #740
  • Sep 5, 2016 2:05pm Sep 5, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting jone3
gbpcad formed an inside bar on weekly level, i am expecibg it bearish, what you say guys, please comment bellow. {image}

i was waiting for it to reach 1.748 and go short
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