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  • #13,181
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:05am Jun 2, 2016 12:05am
I expect OPEC mtg to be a non-event. Last hope for some Summer juice is a Brexit, I guess.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,182
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:08am Jun 2, 2016 12:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} they want 10 - 11 on VIX, even the experts on CNBC are longing VIX now and watching that for the turn
For a while there, I just set up a VIX GTC order for what I thought was my ideal setup (VIX sub-12), a diagonal spread of some kind (e.g., 10/13), but got tired of staring at it ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,183
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:12am Jun 2, 2016 12:12am
Quoting The Fool
I expect OPEC mtg to be a non-event. Last hope for some Summer juice is a Brexit, I guess.
More of this shit, please. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/stock...-unnerves.html
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,184
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:15am Jun 2, 2016 12:15am
Quoting The Fool
I expect OPEC mtg to be a non-event. Last hope for some Summer juice is a Brexit, I guess.
Output freeze? Lol. Har. Rofl. (Grabs sides; spits up coffee). I want what they're smoking ... .http://www.nasdaq.com/article/oil-pr...s+by+Author%29
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,185
  • Jun 2, 2016 3:10am Jun 2, 2016 3:10am
WELL, another sweet dream bites the dust? I rolled down UVXY Jun 17 call vert long legs down down to around 20 bucks, bought back the short legs. Yes this means I am in the hole. But with 12 td's left to June opex, maybe something will revive the bears. Sideways pa don't get it. Even if UVXY could break $20 by 6/17. I'd bank well, but looking like a tall order now....fat p/l beyond $20 just a bitter fantasy now....sell in may fuck me sideways....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-02_0105UVXY.png Size: 51 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,186
  • Jun 2, 2016 3:23am Jun 2, 2016 3:23am
Hi,

I am a newbie to binary options. earlier today I did a 5 min call on EUR/USD and won. but now looks as though EUR/USD facing stiff resistance. and all the news events will cause trouble.
  • #13,187
  • Jun 2, 2016 3:25am Jun 2, 2016 3:25am
Quoting The Fool
I expect OPEC mtg to be a non-event. Last hope for some Summer juice is a Brexit, I guess.
yeah this BREXIT event will be massive. in our out EU, it should present amazing trading opportunities. will keep close eye on EUR/GBP.
  • #13,188
  • Jun 2, 2016 3:31am Jun 2, 2016 3:31am
VIX weekly candles, that's 12 weeks straight between 14 and 17....flattest market in history.....fml.....but, "never short a dull tape", and you know when the mofo breaks out it'll be big.....only, will you go broke trying to catch it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-02_0127vix.png Size: 94 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,189
  • Jun 2, 2016 7:42am Jun 2, 2016 7:42am
Quoting ahmed226
Hi, I am a newbie to binary options. earlier today I did a 5 min call on EUR/USD and won. but now looks as though EUR/USD facing stiff resistance. and all the news events will cause trouble.
nobody trading binaries in here, amigo - cheers.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,190
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:04pm Jun 2, 2016 12:04pm
Quoting The Fool
VIX weekly candles, that's 12 weeks straight between 14 and 17....flattest market in history.....fml.....but, "never short a dull tape", and you know when the mofo breaks out it'll be big.....only, will you go broke trying to catch it?
every overnight dip is bought back in NY.....hopeless
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,191
  • Jun 2, 2016 12:17pm Jun 2, 2016 12:17pm
Quoting The Fool
VIX weekly candles, that's 12 weeks straight between 14 and 17....flattest market in history.....fml.....but, "never short a dull tape", and you know when the mofo breaks out it'll be big.....only, will you go broke trying to catch it? {image}
that is what it needs to align everything up, the last time we saw this or the the VIX remaining under 10 for quite a considerable time was 2007 and we know what happened then
  • #13,192
  • Jun 2, 2016 3:56pm Jun 2, 2016 3:56pm
.......just trying to manage long vol trade damage now, many of the spreads I am in still have 4-6 weeks to go, but since they were put on way out there (like VXX Jun/Jul $30 call calendars) I can just buy back the short legs for pennies, they did their job - anytime now I see something short that did its job (and the spread still has time), ie, I sold it for $2.56 as part of a spread that was a 20c debit, well, I'm buying it back, save the long legs, make something out of them if the chance comes, make a new calendar, roll them down, whatever. No way I need to wait til Jul 15 to let something almost worthless expire.

So, ... buying back lots of VXX & UVXY short legs that are out past $20 in either case.

Now we just need some premium....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,193
  • Jun 2, 2016 5:37pm Jun 2, 2016 5:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}every overnight dip is bought back in NY.....hopeless
Aggravating, to say the least ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,194
  • Jun 2, 2016 5:55pm Jun 2, 2016 5:55pm
I don't know what these guys are smoking ... . http://marketrealist.com/2016/06/vol...remain-high-2/ Volatility simply is not currently high nor has it been "high" on average the past two years; ironic that the averages the article cites actually support the contrary view: 14 in 2014, 16.7 in 2015 (largely due to the late August implosion); 18.6 "so far" in 2016 with a couple of fairly significant spikes; long-term average 20 ... . Current level of 14-ish is far less than 20, no?
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,195
  • Jun 2, 2016 6:22pm Jun 2, 2016 6:22pm
At least one Fed wonk considers Brexit vote a "factor" in rate hike considerations ... . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-rate-decision Kind of "no shit, Sherlock" sort of thing, given the fact that the Fed takes an expansive view of its mandate to include virtually every possible market moving event under the sun ... .

But if the Fed is on pins and needles regarding Brexit, it should be a virtual certainty that there should be no June hike, since the Brexit vote will occur after FOMC meets ... . Nevertheless, there's still 20.6% in the .75 camp (current sentiment is .5 -- 79.4%; .75, 20.6%: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/inte...n-to-fomc.html).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #13,196
  • Jun 2, 2016 9:53pm Jun 2, 2016 9:53pm
I thought I was getting in VXX and UVXY spreads cheap....market makers are saying long vol is dead money? 6c for a 50 lot Jul 1/Jul 15 $23 call calendar has ridiculous r:r, I show modeled with just a 10% iv rise, it could be 2x that easily, b/e for the calendar inc. comms is $15.50......
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-06-02_1954vxx2.png Size: 55 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,197
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:12pm Jun 2, 2016 10:12pm
Quoting The Fool
.......just trying to manage long vol trade damage now, many of the spreads I am in still have 4-6 weeks to go, but since they were put on way out there (like VXX Jun/Jul $30 call calendars) I can just buy back the short legs for pennies, they did their job
Good idea, TF. My Jun17 $17 calls I sold are now in profit by 70c per contract, so I might just buy those back tonight I'll leave the Jul01 $17 long calls on for now in case of Brexit.

Not sure what do with my $17 puts though. The spread is currently down about 11c per contract, not bad I suppose. I'm wondering whether to take the loss now or wait until nearer the time
You reap what you sow.
  • #13,198
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:38pm Jun 2, 2016 10:38pm
hey NT - sorry, what was your original trade?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,199
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:42pm Jun 2, 2016 10:42pm
I am looking at the Jul4 week, week of Jul 18, the week of the RNC National Convention in Cleveland. That might turn out to be a big brouhaha....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #13,200
  • Jun 2, 2016 10:46pm Jun 2, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting The Fool
....market makers are saying long vol is dead money? ......
Could it be? Could the conspiracy theorists be right? Will Wall Street hold up the stock market, no matter what, to protect the Clinton bid for POTUS? Well if it walks like a teflon duck, quacks....teflon....etc
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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