{quote} No I don't believe it's in an uptrend from Sept 2015 - that would be ignoring over 2 years of price action prior to that and that FED are in a lifting rates cycle, RBA still a cutting cycle with economy trying to transition from mining boom to other sectors, with a backdrop of concerns over China's debt. Far easier to see Jan to Apr this year as similar to April to May 2015, Feb to March 2014 etc (ie a relatively small upwards correction in the larger down trend.)
{quote} I see that AU is in an overall down trend while as monthly chart shows, we are getting close to 2008 levels and would be some congestion or rebounds. With up trend, I meant the movement from Sep 15 or Jan 16 which I believe: 1- this movement started from Sep 15 not Jan 16, the period between Sep 15 to Jan 16 despite lower low of Jan 16 is more similar to first wave of trend. The other reason - under evaluation - could be higher 'sell-release' or buy volume in Sep 15 compare to Jan 16. 2- AU is in or end of section 3-4 of the up trend or...
{quote} What I have found with brokers sentiments tools is that price usually runs opposite to what it says. I never go along with it anymore. All I can say is just keep note on brokers client sentiment and the price movement correlation. You need to do it for a few months you will find out how interesting it is. I was keeping an eye on c-trader sentiment in jan this year and it was 70% short right up untill it peaked last month and after cpi data come out and aud dropped. The c-trader sentiment turned bullish 55% since then price has kept coming...
{quote} Thanks Paul, Seems they should name it 'broker sentiment' rather than 'client sentiment'
{quote} Right now aud is ranged based between this triangle and I believe untill it close out on a d1 chart it wont go anywhere. Its also staying under 200 sma so looking to the down side. i am short bias to about .65 {image} {image}
{quote} April High formed with not much spikes and then fell with not much challenges. This might be more of pair behavior rather than a technical reasoning but that high could not be a major reversal. As I think major players do positions ahead and gradually, and already they knew what would be the e.g. CPI. Maybe I am too pessimistic
{quote} I agree that April high wasn't a major reversal - I think it was resumption of trend. If you are wanting to go long at current price it won't necessarily be a bad move as below chart suggests your A1, A2 area will be revisited, it just may take up to 12 months to do so and is likely to be contained below the April 2016 high. Note red circles in below are from October 2013, May 2015 and April 2016. Orange rectangle is around June 2014. {image}
{quote} This was the tip of iceberg, IMO, Still to come
{quote} Beautiful!
